Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Still Not Happy...Monthly Charts Troubling.....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Mar 15, 2015 - 11:37 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

Overheard in Jack's Trading Room: "I have only been a member for a few months, but have learned so much from you and all the other quality members on this site. The honesty, integrity and leadership you bring to this service is hard to find these days." -- "Cowgirl" - 3/13/15

And that doesn't mean we won't try much higher again. If a market is topping it is EXTREMELY unusual to not test the old highs, not only once, but potentially three or four times before trying to sell without coming back up. Like gold years ago, it took four or five attempts for the bubble to pop. The bulls would not give up the ship easily. They were trained to see higher prices. They were trained to buy pullbacks. It took many, many months for the market to top. Now it is true that we are dealing with unprecedented levels of froth, and it is true that the monthly charts are deathly, so it doesn't have to keep trying back up. But that is normal protocol, so we have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt that it won't be any different this time around.


Again, it could be different this time, but history is not on the side of the bulls, so even though things look bad from many different perspectives, try to keep your emotions somewhat in check before getting overly bearish. The market still has lots of proving to do before a sell-signal is set off, plus the market still has the words from Fed Yellen to deal with next Tuesday and Wednesday. You never know what she'll have to say. She can surprise, and tell folks no rate hikes are inevitable, which would likely create one, really nice rally, even if it's temporary. It's too early to get overly bearish, but it's not too early to be ready for more trouble. Adapt and adjust accordingly.

The market had become, for the first time in what seems like ages, extremely oversold on the short-term charts, and not only extremely oversold, but also for far longer than we've seen in forever. I told you that a short-term rally would likely occur from those conditions, and that's exactly what we saw Thursday. Friday, however, the trend lower continued without mercy for the bulls. The short-term charts unwound enough Thursday with the strong-price advance, and that was it for the moment. The bears came right back in on Friday, and down we went right from the start. The selling accelerated as Friday morning went on in to the early afternoon.

It was a bad day for the markets. No positive spin here. Nothing to take from it to give much hope, except, if you're hoping the Fed will do something special early on next week for the bulls. The trend is lower for now. No argument there. Respect that. It's my hope that the bull-bear-spread number, when we get it next Wednesday, will be 35% down from 46.4% three weeks back. By early April I'm hoping for sub 30%. Froth will be diminishing if you're looking for some good news from all this selling. The action we saw today only helps to get the froth out of the market in a big way. There's the real positive we're looking for bigger picture.

Today, you're getting a look at the monthly charts. You can see that it doesn't really matter where you look. One index after the other is flashing the type of look the bulls won't be happy to see. It's tough to look at them if you're bullish. If you're honest with yourself you'll recognize bearish charts. That doesn't mean they have to play out immediately. Like I mentioned above, the market can try to test the top many times.

Monthly charts can take longer to play out than the masses would think possible. That said, they're not pretty, and, thus, need to be respected for their potential damage to the bullish case. Look folks, things aren't too much fun if you're a locked and loaded bull right now. There's always hope where the Fed is concerned for early next week, if she paints a dovish-rates picture, but just be on guard for the potential these monthly charts are offering.

A not so friendly Fed, combined with these charts, would not be good for the short-term bulls. Next week will be more than exciting, regardless of your stance.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2015 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in