Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, January 28, 2007
Dow Jones Stock Market Cycle Analysis - Trend Still Up, Still Positive, But Caution is Advised / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
By: Tim_Wood
The positive for the market is obviously that it continues to move higher and higher as the advance out of the June/July lows remains intact. According to Dow theory, the Secondary Trend also remains intact and as I read the Dow theory I also believe that the Primary Trend is also positive. Cyclically, the longer-term trend remains positive as well. So, let me make it clear that until a confirmed downturn according to Dow theory and/or a cyclical breakdown of at least intermediate degree occurs, this advance cannot be called done.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 27, 2007
A look at the short-term inflationary trends in Gold and Oil stocks / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clif_Droke
In the commentary of early January, I made a case for the oil and gas stocks finding support above their 200-day moving averages and making a technical rally based on a number of momentum signals, particularly in the Amex Natural Gas Index (XNG). That forecast has since materialized and we have the beginnings of a rally in the natural resources sector. The question now becomes one of how much more upside potential remains for the leading natural resource stocks; that question we'll take up in this commentary.
Donald Rowe of the Wall Street Digest points out, “ Historically, numerous corporations try to raise prices during the month of January in order to improve margins. Consequently, prices tend to rise-- even spike up--in January. However, many of these January price increases are rolled back in February or March when they meet resistance from customers or when market share declines. Consequently, inflation is always a problem every January.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 27, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report 27th Jan 2007 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is:
Since 1887 (120 years) the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has been up 70% of the time in the coming week (the last 3 trading days of January and the first 2 days of February) during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle (next week).
Short Term
Most of the short term indicators are at or near neutral and showing a very modest positive bias. I cannot draw conclusions from them.
Thursday, January 25, 2007
Global stock markets and gold going crazy / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Next month I plan on heading to Asia for meetings and some rest & relaxation. So this week I started preparing for my trip. And I checked to see how Vietnam, one of the last countries I visited in Asia, is doing. I practically fell off my chair! When I last talked about Vietnam in Money & Markets , I called it “the next miracle economy.” I said the economy and political system were opening up ... that the country's GDP was roaring ahead at 8% a year ... that 83 million citizens wanted new lifestyles ... and that China's growth was helping Vietnam move into the 21st century.
I also pointed out that Vietnam has rich natural resources, including 600 million barrels of proven oil reserves, 6.8 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves, and 20 billion tons of coal.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 22, 2007
Emerging Markets Investment - Brazil the Next China Like Miracle / Stock-Markets / Investing
By: Money_and_Markets
Just a few years ago, suppose you had known that China, a backward, deeply impoverished communist country, would quickly transform itself into the fastest-growing capitalist economy on the planet. And suppose you had invested $10,000 in the leading Chinese companies.
That single insight alone — plus a dose of standard due diligence — could have been sufficient to transform your initial investment into $50,000, $100,000, or as much as $200,000 today.
Even if you could go back just 19 months ... and even if you made no effort whatsoever to pick a better-than-average Chinese company ... your $10,000 invested in the Shanghai Composite Index would be worth $28,372 at the close of trading this past Friday.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 21, 2007
Stock & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave update - Play It Again, Sam ! / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Dominick
The Jan 14th update stated:
So, what's next? NOW we are finally getting to where I can become comfortable looking for the market to complete my count. I may have started to sound like a broken record, saying, “I still didn't see confirmation of a top and that I needed another new high”. But it's the market's that's been playing this same old sideways tune.
Sentiment indicators have tried to provide sell signals intraday but we haven't closed into those levels. Indicators are diverged, but this recent rally has kept them from triggering sell signals. With that said, the good news is that if I do get the signals any time soon, I can finally be comfortable labeling a chart complete, knowing it's correct.
Well, nothing has changed. I still don't have a sell signal and I don't gauge sentiment at the end of an options expiry week. We opened the week on the S&P trying to poke our heads to higher levels only to find sellers out playing whack-a-mole. We tried on Tuesday, and then again on Wednesday only to selloff into Thursday. Basically, the market's still playing the same sideways tune.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 21, 2007
Stock Market Cycles Analysis - The Trend is still up, Sentiment is High, but Change is in the Wind / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
By: Tim_Wood
Let me begin by explaining that in my work with the markets there are really two distinctly separate pieces. First, is what I call the "over the horizon" piece. This work utilizes the Dow theory, cycles and statistical trend quantifications, all to develop probabilities as to what likely lies ahead or "over the horizon" for a given market. The second piece of my work is primarily centered around my Cycle Turn Indicator. This indicator provides us with confirmation at important turn points. So, it tells us what we should expect now and in the immediate future. All the while, I am constantly watching and monitoring the longer-term "over the horizon" work as well. Sometimes, the intermediate-term work can evolve and change the longer-term forecasts, while other times it may confirm the longer-term forecast. So, this is an act of working two ends to the middle.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 20, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 20th Jan 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Since 1953 the S&P 500 (SPX) has been down only once during the week following the 3rd Friday in January during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle (next week).
Short Term
The chart below covers the past 6 months showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in magenta and an indicator showing momentum of NASDAQ downside volume in green. The indicator is plotted on an inverted Y axis decreasing downside volume moves the indicator upward. During the rally that began last summer prices have moved upward most quickly when the indicator was also moving upward.
Tuesday, January 16, 2007
My favorite ways to invest in Asian and Chinese growth story / Stock-Markets / Investing
By: Money_and_Markets
There's no question that I consider some American companies to be great investments right now. Some have strong business models, defensible niches, and great products. But one thing they don't have going for them is a sound economic backdrop. Unfortunately, the U.S. just isn't roaring ahead right now.
Meanwhile, Asian economies show no sign of slowing down. And that's why I advocate paying attention both to the companies that are based there and the American companies that are doing business there ... the right way. More on that in a moment.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 15, 2007
Invest in Russia - Russian Stock Market Surges 71% in 2006 / Stock-Markets / Investing
By: Money_and_Markets
This is the year I return to Russia — for the first time.My mother's father was born there, but I never met him. He died before I was born — in a New Jersey fire when my mother was just five. Ironically, years earlier, my grandmother suffered a similar fate: Her father died in an accident when she was also just a young girl, in the village of Velozhin, now in Belarus . This double tragedy is a legacy that brings me both gratitude and sorrow. I'm grateful that, unlike my mother and her mother before her, I had the benefit of my loving father by my side for over five decades. But like them, I long to touch base with my roots, which, as fate would have it, have always eluded me.
So a few months ago, I began learning Russian. And a few months from now, I will be in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and one of the small villages of my ancestors. Elisabeth will tour ballroom dance centers and perhaps even compete. I will dig through family archives.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 13, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 13th Jan 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is:
• Many of the major indices closed at or near multiyear or all time highs on Friday.
Short Term
Several of the major indices including the NASDAQ composite (OTC), S&P Mid cap, Russell 2000 (R2K) and Wilshire 5000 were up every day last week. This is a sign of strength that does not occur very often, but, it is also an overbought indication.
Thursday, January 11, 2007
Investing in Africa - First buy signal in 22 years ! / Stock-Markets / Investing
By: Money_and_Markets
Twenty-two years ago I told investors to clear out of all investments in Africa. I said, “Don't look back. Africa will not recover from colonialism and apartheid for decades.”
That was good advice. Between 1975 and 2001, Africa's per-capita gross domestic product fell an average of .7% per year. Since I issued that all-out sell signal, Africa effectively became a “lost continent.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 06, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 6th Jan 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is:
• There have been very few new lows on either the NYSE or NASDAQ.
Short Term
Changing volume patterns offer a short term view of what is happening in the market. Unfortunately, volume indicators are easily skewed by seasonal factors.
The chart below covers the last 100 trading days showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in magenta and momentum of NASDAQ downside volume (OTC DV) in green. OTC DV is plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing downside volume moves the indicator upward (up is good).
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 04, 2007
Dow Jones Stock Market Shocks during 2007 / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Money_and_Markets
We've had almost four years of relative calm in the financial markets. Corporate earnings have rebounded from the depths of the 2000 — 2001 stock market collapse. There have been no terror attacks on U.S. soil. Interest rates have remained artificially low.
But now, even as foreign economies are gaining in strength, the U.S. economy's second-breath — as I call it — is ending. Coming next — a series of shocks in the Dow Jones Industrials that could catch investors with their pants down.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 30, 2006
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 30th Dec 06 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and Russell 2000 (R2K) closed at all time highs last week.
Short Term
It is difficult to make a short term technical assessment of the market at this time of the year because seasonal factors dominate.
Intermediate term
New lows begin to increase as the market approaches a significant top.
Friday, December 29, 2006
FTSE 100 Index stock market forecast for 2007 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The FTSE ended 2006 at 6220.80, up about 11% for the year and up 90% from the 2003 low.
A recap of the FTSE trend during 2006 before the forecast for 2007 - The FTSE started 2006 at 5,618, after having already built on 2 good years so expectations were starting to slacken with many commentators suggesting that the FTSE could decline during 2006. Our forecast at the start of the year was for the FTSE 100 index to rise to 6000 by the end of 2006, so a 3% deviation from the actual year end close.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 27, 2006
Emerging Markets outlook for 2007 - India, China, Russia, Eastern Europe and Brazil / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Emerging markets have by and large boomed during 2007. With indices such as India's Sensex up more than 50% on the year, though the year ends on a cautionary note ,given the recent actions by Thailand's regime that sent their stock market reeling. So even though the long-term fundamentals are still strong for India, China, Russia, Brazil etc, the first half of 2007 could become a corrective period for the emerging markets, as they end the year on high valuations and growth expectations. Many investors have only recently started to enter these markets, and they may be disappointed by performances during the first half of 2007. The key here is to invest for the long-term growth so well beyond 2007.
Wednesday, December 27, 2006
Emerging Markets - Chinese Red-chips Soar into Orbit, is Gold Next ? / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Gary_Dorsch
Tuesday, December 26, 2006
Dow Jones Stock Market forecast for 2007 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dow Jones forecast for 2007 - If you have followed my last article on the Dow Jones (17th December 06), you will be aware that I am expecting a sharp drop in the stock markets starting January 2007. As the year draws to an end, I am able to further clarify the scenario that the Dow Jones is expected to play out during 2007.
The rally to new highs in the Dow jones and new five year highs in other indices has not been followed by confirmation in the Dow Transports, whilst the rallies have also been accompanied by record low VIX readings, suggesting investor complacency.
Now in the run upto the new year, the media seems to be filling up with stories of how well the stock markets are expected to perform during 2007. Supporting evidence such as soft landing of the US economy, and that 2007 is expected to be the strongest in the presidential cycle. Unfortunately as my article of 22nd October pointed out, the Dow Jones has decided to make ADJUSTMENTS to the presidential cycle, which has significantly negated its overall effect in terms of trend. We basically have enjoyed much of the expected PLUS that's expected during 2007 already in the latter part of 2006 !, So this implies a much weaker 2007.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 23, 2006
A lesson from History Thailand's stock and currency market compared with 1997 / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Money_and_Markets
Nine years, five months, and twenty days ago, Thailand revalued its currency, the baht. That one small move ultimately brought down stock markets, currencies, and economies throughout Southeast Asia and the world.
Now, Thailand is in the news again — implementing capital controls on international investors. Those rules would lock up a chunk of foreign investors' funds for a year in an attempt to curb currency speculation. But the circumstances of this new situation couldn't be more different from those of 1997. Instead of being provoked by a strong U.S. currency, Thailand is reacting to a weak dollar. That speaks volumes about just how far the once-mighty greenback has fallen.
Today, I want to look back at the fateful days of the 1997 Asian contagion ... compare it to the current situation ... and, most importantly, explain what it means for your investments.
Read full article... Read full article...