Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Global Mania is Deflating as China Crashes / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Paul_Lamont
According to a study by Knox and Inkster, a pair of Canadian psychologists, people are much more confident of their horses' chances of winning just after placing a bet, than they are immediately before they lay down the bet. As Robert Cialdini explains, “Of course, nothing about the horses' chances actually shifts; it's the same horse, on the same track, in the same field, but in the mind of the betters, its prospects improve significantly once that ticket is purchased. Once a stand has been taken, the need for consistency pressured these people to bring what they felt and believed in line with what they had already done.”
Markets are cyclical. Unfortunately, investors that stay fully invested, diversified, and ‘consistent' until the end of this bear market will lose most of their funds. In our last article , we concluded that a greater than 50% correction in the Chinese indexes over the next 2-3 years was highly probable. On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index plunged 8.8%, the most in 10 years. The downside percentage decline for the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be similar and will be detailed further in our next article.
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Monday, February 26, 2007
S&P Index Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis & Forecast / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Dominick
Last week I stated: We now have the potential of either seeing a final diagonal that the forum has been alerted to for months now, or an acceleration that will have most traders on the wrong side and flat broke within days. I haven't changed a thing about my view, but I'm not going to force a position if the market's out to get me. As members already know, I'm prepared to trade both ends of the trend.
Many weeks ago I had an upside target of 1472, and since last Monday's post, the target has been adjusted to 1462/1470. At this point that level is very doable, but much higher than that won't be a good thing for short traders.
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Sunday, February 25, 2007
Immediate Global Stock Market Investment Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Investing
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin here with a special gala edition based on our just-completed global teleconference — one of the most popular of all time.
We had four international experts on the line — myself in North America, Larry Edelson in Asia, Joseph Weiss in South America and Claus Vogt in Europe.
We had precisely 5,071 investors registered to call in.And the incoming call volume was so intense, it even overwhelmed one of the best, most robust teleconference providers in America.
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Saturday, February 24, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 24th Feb 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: All of the major averages hit all time or multiyear highs last week.
Short Term
The picture is mixed. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell for 3 consecutive days after hitting a multiyear high last Tuesday.
The chart below covers the last 6 months showing the SPX in red and an indicator that shows the percentage of the last 3 trading days that were up in black. In the past 6 months the SPX has not fallen for more than 3 consecutive days. Except for the occurrence at the end of last year, each time there have been 3 consecutive down days it marked a short term low.
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Saturday, February 24, 2007
Warning China's Stock Market will Crash this year / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Marty_Chenard
Let me say this very simply ...
China's Stock Market will Crash sometime this year .
After listening to CNBC applaud the historic rise in the Shanghai index, I was elated to see the responsible reporting that the Los Angeles Times did on the subject. Staff writer Don Lee wrote the article in with the help of Cao Jun in the Shanghai Bureau. My congrats to them for writing a timely and informative piece that the rest of the media is avoiding.
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Friday, February 23, 2007
Gold Stocks Versus Crude Oil Stocks Forecast / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clif_Droke
The AMEX Gold Bugs Index (HUI) closed 0.50% higher on Thursday, Feb. 22, to finish the day at 356.34 while the XAU was 0.16% higher at 146.05. The spot gold index closed at $379 while spot silver closed Thursday at $14.22.
In my Feb. 5 commentary on the natural resource stocks I wrote, "Although some of the XAU's price oscillators are slowly inching into positive territory and are no longer 'oversold,' the primary consideration right now isn't overbought versus oversold. It's the strongly rising internal momentum from a 90-day rate of change standpoint.
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Wednesday, February 21, 2007
Building a Better BRIC ETF - Brazil, Russia, India and China Investment / Stock-Markets / Investing
By: Michael_K_Dawson
In a 2003 research paper Goldman Sachs argued that the combination of countries Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) has the economic potential to be larger than the G6 in US dollar terms by 2050. The countries are forecast to encompass over 40% of the world's population and hold a combined GDP of nearly $15 trillion dollars.
Goldman predicts China and India will be dominant global suppliers of manufactured goods and services and that Brazil and Russia will be dominant suppliers of raw materials. Brazil and Russia would form logical commodity suppliers to China and India; cooperation amongst the four countries would create a powerful economic block.
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Wednesday, February 21, 2007
Stock Market Bubbles Brewing in Shanghai, Tokyo, and London / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Gary_Dorsch
“There is a bubble growing. Investors should be concerned about the risks,” said Cheng Siwei, vice-chairman of China’s National People’s Congress in a January 31st interview with the Financial Times. “But in a bull market, people will invest relatively irrationally. Every investor thinks they can win. But many will end up losing. But that is their risk and their choice,” Cheng warned.In what might develop into the third biggest stock market bubble in history, ranked alongside Japan’s Nikkei-225 of 1986-89, and the Nasdaq’s 1999-2000 bull run, the Shanghai Composite “A” share Index, restricted mainly to Chinese nationals, has posted a 140% gain over the past 12-months, after soaring 46% in the fourth-quarter of 2006 alone. And without deliberate market intervention, the A-share market could inflate into a Nasdaq-like bubble.
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Tuesday, February 20, 2007
Chinease Communist Party - with over $1 trillion to Invest / Stock-Markets / Investing
By: Money_and_Markets
If you watched much CNBC last week, you might have thought it turned into the “Ben Bernanke channel.” That's because the cameras were fixed on the Federal Reserve Bank Chairman's two-day testimony to Congress.
Given this kind of superstar treatment, it's no wonder most investors consider Bernanke to be one of the most powerful financial people in the world. Don't get me wrong, Bernanke, as well as people like Warren Buffett and Bill Gates, are definitely forces to be reckoned with. But there are also big fish across the pond.
Today, I want to tell you about two other investors that top my “world's most powerful” list. I'll also tell you what they're likely to be buying, and how your own portfolio can benefit …
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Saturday, February 17, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 17th Feb 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Several of the major averages including the Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA), S&P mid cap (MID) and Russell 2000 (R2K) closed at their all time highs on Friday. New highs across the capitalization spectrum suggest there is more to come.
Short Term
Two weeks ago the MID finished a run of 10 consecutive up days. Then it fell for 2 days and resumed its upward run for another 4 consecutive days ending Friday.
Saturday, February 17, 2007
Investing in the Stock Market - Signs of Trouble ? / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Hans_Wagner
When investing in the stock market it is important to balancing the risks with the potential rewards, if you want to beat the market . Today, we face a world of low yields and relatively high valuations. Most of the stock markets in the developed world are near their long-term highs in terms of valuation. As many investors know and numerous studies have shown stocks offer lower than normal returns after reaching high valuations.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 16, 2007
How the Dow Jones is getting killed - Due to loss of purchasing power / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Money_and_Markets
If you think the U.S. stock market is doing okay, I hope you're sitting down. In this issue, I'm going to give you information that will shatter that myth and pin your eyes wide open. And if you're heavily invested in stocks, don't worry. By the end of this article, I'll give you some steps you can take to protect yourself.
Let's start with a chart that I've made for you. It shows the Dow Jones Industrials from January 3, 2000 to February 6 of this year, and it is expressed in terms of the number of ounces of gold that the Dow can purchase.
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Tuesday, February 13, 2007
International Exposure Through Investments in Foreign Index Funds / Stock-Markets / Investing
By: Hans_Wagner
International markets, through their index funds, offer excellent investment opportunities with parallel risks. Investors can gain appropriate exposure to these opportunities while mitigating the risks through several viable investment options. The purpose of this article is to explore how to approach the international markets and offer some investing options to increase growth and diversity.
Basically, there are three categories of foreign index funds. The EAFE (Europe, Australasia & Far East) is a widely followed index. For some reason Canada, the world's 9 th largest economy, is left out of this index, as well as the U.S. based indexes. Next, are the BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China. These economies are experiencing rapid growth and are considered emerging rather than the mature economies of the U.S. and EAFE. Finally, there are the remaining emerging economies of much of the rest of the world.
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Tuesday, February 13, 2007
One great way to make money ... Trade Between China and Brazil / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Money_and_Markets
One great way to make money is to scour the globe ... find a unique point where two powerfully positive forces come together ... and then choose the investments that are most likely to convert those forces into profits.
That's what I've done. And I'm going to give you some of the results this morning.
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Monday, February 12, 2007
Stock Market is Overbought, Overvalued and Overbullish / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: John_Mauldin
Are we overbought and overvalued? Maybe. Is inflation coming under control? Maybe not. Did housing construction rebound last month? No. The only rebound was in the statistics. (I know readers will be shocked to learn that some statistics just may not actually be what the headline says.) We look at all this and more as we ponder a world awash in liquidity.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 11, 2007
Irrational Exhuberance In China's Stock market / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Peter_Schiff
Recently voiced concerns from the Chinese government that their surging domestic stock market was crossing into bubble territory helped to set off last week's sharp decline, including a single day plunge of 6.5% (the equivalent of more than 800 points on the Dow Jones.) While a bubble may indeed be forming in Chinese stocks, my guess is that there is room for a lot more air before it finally pops.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 11, 2007
Stock & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave Analysis - 11th February 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Dominick
Going into the week, members had the benefit of the 1458 target on the S&P futures that I mentioned in the Forum and reiterated several times at the start of the week. As you might recall, the February 4th update stated:
“I think this is the time the market makes or breaks. I do think the market has a great chance of turning before the target of SPX 1472 I have. As it was difficult to share the opinion of a huge rally in the summer, its hard here to express a bit of danger as the markets advance each and every day. I see next week as a slight advance on Monday and then possible a boring consolidation before another advance that marks a turn. Do we have confirmation that this week was it. No way, but I do have enough evidence that if things remain as they are, we will rollover soon. That said, you can make the case that if all is peaceful next week, we could doll up a few markets and give them their finishing touches.”
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Sunday, February 11, 2007
A Raging Bull - Africa, Nanotechnology and the Danger of Sub-prime US mortgages / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: John_Mauldin
This week I am in South Africa. At the moment I am literally flying from Johannesburg to Durban in a single-engine Pilates PC 12, a very upscale Swiss-manufactured plane. I am told pilots will know and appreciate the plane. It is supposedly the safest plane in the world, which is somewhat comforting as we bounce through a few storm clouds (and thunderstorms later tonight of the way to Cape Town!). My business partners and hosts, Dr. Prieur du Plessis and Paul Stewart of Plexus Asset Management, have kept me busy, but it has been fun.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 10, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 10th Feb 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Same as last week, most of the major indices hit new multiyear or all time highs.
Short Term
Last week I discussed the implications of the Russell 2000 (R2K) moving up for 6 consecutive days. On Thursday last week the S&P mid cap index (MID) completed a run of 10 consecutive up days, an occurrence seen only twice in the past 15 years
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
Market Wrap - Summary All Markets / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
Interest rates are still key, as they affect the bond market, the mortgage market, and the housing market; which in turn affects many peripheral markets such as lumber, copper, furniture, and appliances to name but a few.
Interest rates had been on the rise but began to drop back this week. That is good news for all those that own mortgages - although we did see that mortgages still went up, not down. Hopefully the lesser rates will filter down to the mortgage markets - if the bankers want to play nice, which is a very cold altar to place one's faith in.
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