Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Rise of the (Selling) Machines - Threat of Automated Trading to the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Michael_J_Panzner
In the popular 1984 film, The Terminator , current California governor and former actor Arnold Schwarzenegger plays a cyborg sent back in time to eliminate the mother of future leader John Connor before he could be born. Single-minded and highly developed, the robotic killer relentlessly pursues his intended prey throughout the movie, despite strong resistance fromF the hero's supporters, although the good guys eventually win out in the end.
While the story is pure fantasy, some may not realize that in the stock market there are the equivalent of dangerous man-made automatons lurking in every corner. Often technology-based, they are powerful, sophisticated, and difficult to keep under complete control. Yet they are exerting a growing and pervasive influence on prices. Unfortunately, these potential share-price assassins, if they were to be suddenly unleashed all at once, represent a Terminator-like threat to financial markets, especially if conditions are just right.
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Monday, March 12, 2007
In depth Market Wrap - US Economy and Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
The Economy : Jobs
The economy added 97,000 jobs in February, which was below last month's 146,000 increase. The employment rate fell to 4.5% from 4.6%.
Employers in the U.S. added 97,000 jobs last month, less than in the prior month, as a slowing housing market and the return of winter weather prompted job cuts in construction. The unemployment rate fell.
Construction reported the largest loss of jobs in 15 years, reflecting the weakness in the housing and real estate markets. Builders let go off 62,000 workers.
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Monday, March 12, 2007
Financial Markets Sell-off Fundamentals, Two Weeks Later / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: Michael_Pento
Nearly two weeks removed from the “scary” 500 point Dow drop, Wall St. Strategists have been correct thus far in saying the slide had nothing to do with foreign central banks dumping U.S. treasuries—that's not a problem yet . However, it should be clear that the decline has everything to do with the gradual contraction of global liquidity imposed by central bankers from the globe's fastest growing economies.
Central banks in China and Japan made moves to tighten liquidity and curtail the rampant growth in their money supplies-- with rumors from India that it may join in the squeeze. Gold's fall in the immediate aftermath was a validation of this view. To be clear, any deflationary trend will be slight and temporal in nature and I maintain my secular view that the trend towards rampant global inflation is still intact. However, it would be foolish to ignore the affect this liquidity squeeze will have on most markets, including gold.
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Sunday, March 11, 2007
Stock & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave Analysis - 11th March 07 - The Magic Number / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Dominick
I'm sure there were readers who couldn't understand the bullish tone from last week's update after the S&P closed on the lows that Friday and looked as if it was about to fall off a cliff. There was plenty of talk last weekend of a “running flat” second wave.
Such a pattern is when the underlying trend is so strong that it overwhelms the correction and, in a decline, wave c is unable to exceed the peak of wave a. Monday's gap down should have ensured the doubters that this was in fact the correct pattern and that the trap door had been opened for the third of a third … again .
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Sunday, March 11, 2007
August 2006 Again ? Financial Markets Forecast into August 2007 / Stock-Markets / Technical Analysis
By: Boris_Chikvashvili
What is seen here is the quantum energy function of the SPX future. This is a proprietary function based on the principles of Quantum Physics.
We believe that Yen carry trade is not completely unraveled yet and it will produce retest of the recent lows, which would on April 7, neatly correspond to the lows on the chart. Then we will have then the rally back into early May, just like in 2006 and then down into August. Looks like the creator wants to repeat the play of the last year. So, be ready.
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Sunday, March 11, 2007
Stock Market 4 Year Cycle Low - Next Leg of the Downtrend Expected / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
By: Tim_Wood
As the market advanced up out of the June/July 2006 low, many began proclaiming those lows as having marked the 4-year cycle low. With the last obvious 4-year cycle low having occurred on October 10, 2002 at 7,197.49 and when the October 2006 low that most were expecting did not occur, most pointed at the June/July lows as having marked the 4-year cycle low. I can understand why on the surface most people would have thought this. But, that was the easy answer for the market not making the low in October that so many were expecting.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 11, 2007
Weekly Financial Markets Review -The Corrective Rally Continues - The Worst is Not Over ! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The week saw the Stock Markets rally, the Dow ended up at 12,276, FTSE 100 index at 6246. The asian stock markets, including China also rallied. In our analysis immediately following China's mini crash, I suggested that the Stock Markets would make a bottom during the week and start to rally towards targets of 12,525 for the Dow Jones and 6300 for the FTSE. Following which another down leg would begin. Stock Markets follow China Lower - What to expect next as China's crash continues in Asia 27th Feb 07.
Back to the week that was -
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Saturday, March 10, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 10th Mar 07 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: New lows which hit 106 on the NYSE and 159 on the NASDAQ last Monday declined to 23 on the NYSE and 58 on the NASDAQ on Friday.
Short Term
New lows will reveal the short term condition of the market, but, for now, the picture is unclear.
Saturday, March 10, 2007
Unwinding the Yen carry Trade and its Effect on the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Yen Carry Trade
By: Adam_Oliensis
Two weeks ago I wrote:
I suspect that in the context of an inverted yield curve (and especially of a steepening inversion) the market's PE is unlikely to continue to expand as it has since last summer. Note that since '03 there has been a strong correlation between the sinking market PE and the flattening (and then inverting) yield curve. At present PE is rising as the trend in the yield curve resists doing likewise. I continue to suspect that that divergence is unsustainable.
The above was written in reference to the following chart when the market PE (blue line) was peaking at 15.2. It has since sunk (abruptly) to 14.5.
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Friday, March 09, 2007
Stock Market Rallies after last weeks slump - The Worst is Far from Over! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Peter_Schiff
With today's relatively benign jobs report coming in close to the consensus forecast and with the stock market comfortably above Monday's low, most on Wall Street are breathing a sigh of relief. The popular position is that last week's turmoil was simply a speed bump on the road to greater prosperity, and that a recession and a bear market are low probability events. As you may imagine, I beg to differ.
Friday, March 09, 2007
Stock Market Analysis - A Major Crash...or a Major Bottom? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Clif_Droke
On Tuesday, Feb. 27, the stock market experienced its biggest 1-day tumble since 2001. That it created quite an impression on the minds of millions of investors is undisputed. What is disputed, though, is whether this sharp decline represented a needed correction of an ongoing intermediate-term bull market...or perhaps the start of a major bear market?
The debate continues with everyone having a different take on the matter. But the market itself is giving clear and decisive readings as to which side of the argument is likely correct.
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Thursday, March 08, 2007
Another Potential Crisis for Investors - Israel Plans to Attack Iran’s Nuclear Facilities / Stock-Markets / Iran
By: Money_and_Markets
There's a heck of a lot happening right now! The markets have been volatile, so I want to give you a quick update on where I see things heading next. And I also want to tell you about a looming threat that many investors are still ignoring. Let me get right to it ...
First, with rare exceptions, my indicators on the U.S. markets are turning south. It appears that my warnings are coming to pass — investors are finally starting to notice weak real estate markets, too much debt in the country, peaking corporate earnings, and the weak dollar. So don't be surprised one iota if U.S. stock markets start to yo-yo like crazy, or even fall sharply.
Second, in direct contrast to the U.S., and despite all the scary things you're hearing, Asia is booming . There's been no change in the spectacular fundamentals underlying China, India, Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, or Indonesia. All of these countries are exploding with economic growth. Their stock markets, while a bit more volatile right now, are in strong long-term bull markets .
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Thursday, March 08, 2007
Subprime mortgages hit Banking sector and likely to lead to further Stock Market Falls / Stock-Markets / US Housing
By: Marty_Chenard
Let's look at a 3 year picture of the S&P 500 versus the Banking Index today.
Why is it important to look at the Banking Index at this time?
The answer is, "because of mortgages, the home building industry, and a credit contraction."
First, the home building industry caved in, but our economy seemed unaffected.
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Thursday, March 08, 2007
Paulson downplays Stock Market worries - Despite Yen carry trade warnings / Stock-Markets / Yen Carry Trade
By: Mike_Whitney
Hank Paulson is sweating bullets right now.In fact, a shrewd investor could probably make a fortune just figuring out what type of high-blood pressure medication he's on and then betting the farm on the manufacturer.
Last week the stock market bull plopped down on an I.E.D. and wound up in intensive-care sucking food from a straw and drifting in and out of consciousness. That put Paulson on the road to South Korea, Japan and China where he'll meet up with his foreign counterparts to strategize on the deteriorating state of world markets. It's a daunting task. The sudden rise in the yen has set off a brushfire that's swept through the global system clearing out the dead-wood and sending panicky fund managers out onto the streets.
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Thursday, March 08, 2007
Crash Proof your Stock Market Invesment Portfolio / Stock-Markets / Investing
By: Money_and_Markets
You buy home insurance to protect your home against fire, storm damage and theft ... auto insurance for your car ... and perhaps even long-term care insurance to prevent undue erosion of your assets in later years.
But do you take similar steps to protect your investment portfolios? Think it's not needed? Before you answer, consider these facts:
Fact #1. For many investors, the total amount at risk in their stock portfolio is similar to — or even larger than — the amount at risk in all their other assets combined.
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Tuesday, March 06, 2007
The Damage has been done to the Financial Markets as Volatility Soars and The Carry Trade Unwinds / Stock-Markets / Yen Carry Trade
By: Christopher_Laird
Up to last week, people were saying the Dow and other major markets were ever rising, the VIX was at super low levels, risk pricing was way too low in all markets.
The Dow appeared to climb ever higher, super bearish writers and economists were questioning themselves about the stock markets that never seemed to drop, but just kept climbing ever higher. There was talk about the ever greater liquidity continually pouring money into financial markets. That is was/is true.
But that was then – a couple of weeks ago. Now, market sentiment everywhere has been badly shaken. The VIX rose an incredible 60% last week. Previously, its historically low levels indicated there was virtually no investor fear in the markets. In a very real sense, the damage has now been done, and financial markets of all types are like a seriously wounded aircraft carrier, listing badly and on fire. It still floats, but just barely. Just about anything can now finish it off.
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Tuesday, March 06, 2007
What the media isn't saying about China's Stock Market Plunge / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: Money_and_Markets
The Shenzhen/Shanghai Index of 300 stocks fell 9.2% last Tuesday.
Why? Because the State Council, China's highest ruling body, said it started a special task force to clamp down on illegal share offerings and other banned activities. Investors were worried that the government's zeal could damage the whole stock market.
There's no question that 9.2% is a big single-day drop. However, just looking at that one day doesn't tell the whole story. In the previous six days, the same index had jumped 13%. That means that, despite the big drop, the index was still up 3.8% in seven trading days. I'd hardly call that a disaster.
Regardless, a parade of market watchers has been bad-mouthing Chinese stocks, blaming them for the Dow's plunge, and more. Today, I want to tell you some things that you're not hearing from these so-called experts.
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Tuesday, March 06, 2007
In depth Market Wrap - US Economy, Stocks, Bonds and Currencies - China Crisis / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
The Economy - The Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product last quarter rose at a 2.2% annual rate. New home sales plunged, while orders for durable goods slid the most since October.
Personal Income was up 1.0%, while personal spending was up 0.5%. If the figures are correct, such is a good thing, as less was consumed then produced and earned, which allows for savings.
The ISM Manufacturing index was up 3 points to 52.3. Prices paid were up 6 points to 59. Production and new orders both increased by almost 5 points.
Confidence among U.S. consumers fell last month from a two-year high as fuel prices ate into personal income, and employment weakened.
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Monday, March 05, 2007
Stock Market Manipulation - The secret maneuverings of the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Mike_Whitney
The Working Group on Financial Markets, also know as the Plunge Protection Team, was created by Ronald Reagan to prevent a repeat of the Wall Street meltdown of October 1987. Its members include the Secretary of the Treasury, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the Chairman of the SEC and the Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Recently, the team has been on high-alert given the increased volatility of the markets and, what Hank Paulson calls, "the systemic risk posed by hedge funds and derivatives.”Last Tuesday's 416 point drop in the stock market has sent tremors through global system. An 8% freefall on the Chinese stock exchange triggered a massive equities sell-off which continued sporadically throughout the week. The sudden shift in sentiment, from Bull to Bear, has drawn more attention to deeply rooted “systemic” problems in the US economy. US manufacturing is already in recession, the dollar continues to weaken, consumer spending is flat, and the sub-prime market in real estate has begun to nosedive. These have all contributed to the markets' erratic behavior and created the likelihood that the Plunge Protection Team may be stealthily intervening behind the scenes.
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Monday, March 05, 2007
Un-winding of Yen Carry Trade Likely Cause of China's Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Adrian_Ash
A BOWL OF RICE topped with chicken and egg, oyakodon translates literally as "mother and child" – a tasteless joke for the chicken and its babies, perhaps. But add a dash of soy sauce and it makes for a very tasty meal.The chicken-and-egg question of Japanese carry-trades, on the other hand, is rapidly making investors sick the world over. Which came first – the end of carry, or the collapse of share prices in Shanghai? The newswires blame Beijing's threat of higher interest rates...new restrictions on stock market IPOS...even a tax on financial speculation!
But what if the sudden unwinding of the carry-trade caused Shanghai to collapse instead? If you think that oyakodon has got little to do with the S&P losing 5% since this time last week, take note. For the chicken and egg question also applies going forward.
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