Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets - 23rd Oct 21
Easy PC Upgrades with Motherboard Combos - Overclockers UK Unboxing - MB, Memory and Ryzen 5600x CPU - 23rd Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks Q3 2021 - 23rd Oct 21
Gold calmly continues cobbling its Handle, Miners lay in wait - 23rd Oct 21
US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008 - 22nd Oct 21
Extreme Ratios Point to Gold and Silver Price Readjustments - 22nd Oct 21
Bitcoin $100K or Ethereum $10K—which happens first? - 22nd Oct 21
This Isn’t Sci-Fi: How AI Is About To Disrupt This $11 Trillion Industry - 22nd Oct 21
Ravencoin RVN About to EXPLODE to NEW HIGHS! Last Chance to Buy Before it goes to the MOON! - 21st Oct 21
Stock Market Animal Spirits Returning - 21st Oct 21
Inflation Advances, and So Does Gold — Except That It Doesn’t - 21st Oct 21
Why A.I. Is About To Trigger The Next Great Medical Breakthrough - 21st Oct 21
Gold Price Slowly Going Nowhere - 20th Oct 21
Shocking Numbers Show Government Crowding Out Real Economy - 20th Oct 21
Crude Oil Is in the Fast Lane, But Where Is It Going? - 20th Oct 21
3 Tech Stocks That Could Change The World - 20th Oct 21
Best AI Tech Stocks ETF and Investment Trusts - 19th Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Will Investors Dump the Laggards? - 19th Oct 21
The Most Exciting Medical Breakthrough Of The Decade? - 19th Oct 21
Prices Rising as New Dangers Point to Hard Assets - 19th Oct 21
It’s not just Copper; GYX indicated cyclical the whole time - 19th Oct 21
Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia, VIES - Variable Interest Entities - 19th Oct 21
Inflation Peaked Again, Right? - 19th Oct 21
Gold Stocks Bouncing Hard - 19th Oct 21
Stock Market New Intermediate Bottom Forming? - 19th Oct 21
Beware, Gold Bulls — That’s the Beginning of the End - 18th Oct 21
Gold Price Flag Suggests A Big Rally May Start Soon - 18th Oct 21
Inflation Or Deflation – End Result Is Still Depression - 18th Oct 21
A.I. Breakthrough Could Disrupt the $11 Trillion Medical Sector - 18th Oct 21
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 17th Oct 21
The Gold Price And Inflation - 17th Oct 21
Went Long the Crude Oil? Beware of the Headwinds Ahead… - 17th Oct 21
Watch These Next-gen Cloud Computing Stocks - 17th Oct 21
Overclockers UK Custom Built PC 1 YEAR Use Review Verdict - Does it Still Work? - 16th Oct 21
Altonville Mine Tours Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 16th Oct 21
How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
The Only way to Crush Inflation (not stocks) - 14th Oct 21
Why "Losses Are the Norm" in the Stock Market - 14th Oct 21
Sub Species Castle Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 14th Oct 21
Which Wallet is Best for Storing NFTs? - 14th Oct 21
Ailing UK Pound Has Global Effects - 14th Oct 21
How to Get 6 Years Life Out of Your Overclocked PC System, Optimum GPU, CPU and MB Performance - 13th Oct 21
The Demand Shock of 2022 - 12th Oct 21
4 Reasons Why NFTs Could Be The Future - 12th Oct 21
Crimex Silver: Murder Most Foul - 12th Oct 21
Bitcoin Rockets In Preparation For Liftoff To $100,000 - 12th Oct 21
INTEL Tech Stock to the MOON! INTC 2000 vs 2021 Market Bubble WARNING - 11th Oct 21
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Wall of Worry Meets NFPs - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Continues - 11th Oct 21
China / US Stock Markets Divergence - 10th Oct 21
Can US Save Taiwan From China? Taiwan Strait Naval Battle - PLA vs 7th Fleet War Game Simulation - 10th Oct 21
Gold Price Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US - 10th Oct 21
US Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Housing Market Mortgage Interest Rates - 10th Oct 21
US China War over Taiwan Simulation 2021, Invasion Forecast - Who Will Win? - 9th Oct 21
When Will the Fed Taper? - 9th Oct 21
Dancing with Ghouls and Ghosts at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 9th Oct 21
Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
Scan Computers - Custom Build PC 6 Months Later, Reliability, Issues, Quality of Tech Support Review - 8th Oct 21
Gold and Silver: Your Financial Main Battle Tanks - 8th Oct 21
How to handle the “Twin Crises” Evergrande and Debt Ceiling Threatening Stocks - 8th Oct 21
Why a Peak in US Home Prices May Be Approaching - 8th Oct 21
Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post Pandemic Frights Begin, What it's Like to Enter Scarefest 2021 - 8th Oct 21
AJ Bell vs II Interactive Investor - Which Platform is Best for Buying US FAANG Stocks UK Investing - 7th Oct 21
Gold: Evergrande Investors' Savior - 7th Oct 21
Here's What Really Sets Interest Rates (Not Central Banks) - 7th Oct 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Inflation in the pipleline not Deflation - Stock Market is Correcting.

Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy Mar 02, 2007 - 12:43 AM GMT

By: David_Petch

Stock-Markets According to deflationists, we are at the cusp of a collapse in the money supply. There are two articles I previously published titled "Diatribes of a Deflationist" and "Diatribes of a Deflationist II". I do not like to spew information contained in prior research articles because unless I see any change to an argument it is pointless to regurgitate the same information. As such refer to the archives section of this site under my name to review these and other prior material mentioned below.


Deflation implies a sharp decline in ALL broad stock market indices but is likely not going to be the case over the coming years. There is likely going to be a reversal in the broad markets in mid March as mentioned in my most recent article posted on the net titled "Hang on, the S&P is Going Higher"; published in mid-November 2006, which will be met with people touting that deflation has started. This will be a much-required correction in the market; nothing has changed, except the development of the pattern and the accompanying labeling scheme and updated time frames for when the market will top out. If one checks out the Elliott Wave pattern of the S&P 500 Index, it is in a corrective pattern, which is due for a correction.

I see the S&P still hitting 1500-1550, with an accompanying correction to 1150-1200 at worst. This is going to be touted as "the next leg down", "the end of the stock markets" etc. etc. but this will be an interim correction in an upleg of the S&P that will last until 2010/2011. A piece I wrote some time ago titled "S&P to 3000……….Here's How discussed how it can continue to advance: When the S&P has a weighting of 25% oil stocks and 17-20% gold stocks a top is near and currently 5% oils and 2% precious metals, we are no where near that point yet. The S&P 500 Index is fluid, so stocks that do poorly will be replaced by others that have a rise in earnings. The coming correction in the S&P 500 Index will be a sharp correction, but it does not mean the run-up in the S&P is over.

I have seen many different articles posting different economic indicators, what works etc. but the best I have seen is Elliott Wave, particularly the version developed by Glenn Neely titled "NEOWave";. I suggest anyone who is serious about learning Elliott Wave to purchase his book titled "Mastering Elliott Wave". Glenn's site is www.neowave.com and has a wealth of post-Mastering Elliott Wave material referenced in "Questions of the Week". There are numerous new developments, many of which are directly applicable to today's market and will help to prevent errors in counting. There is not a better Elliottician on the planet and if one wishes to accurately determine future market direction and positions in a bull market I suggest at least viewing Glenn's book. 

There is an article I published some time ago titled "The Technical Palette" describing the methods of technical analysis I use. For those not familiar, I suggest a quick scan of this article in the archives section of this web page under "David Petch" to follow any analysis presented in the articles previously published on the net.

If deflation were to be upon us, then the price of gold should decline also, but to a lesser extent thereby retaining its purchasing power. Gold and oil stocks should also decline in price, but there is a problem with this thesis………the commodity indices are in bull markets and are poised to head higher (as per Elliott Wave Analysis). The supply of commodities is extremely tight and by definition, higher demand with diminishing supply creates a bull market. This bull market is different however because we are nearing or past the point of Peak Oil as I described in an article "Peak Oil and What it Means to You". Peak oil translates into resource wars and wars are inflationary, period. Coupled with government deficits and numerous other reasons previously cited for inflation, that is the course of the next 4-6 years at a minimum. Remember that rising prices are a symptom of monetary expansion, it works no other way.

As the analysis of the HUI presented nearly one month ago, there is no indication of any bear market lying ahead for the HUI. In fact it is about as bullish as one can get (Side note: I changed my longer-term preferred count to reflect the alternate count, given extremely bullish news for three companies we follow, but saw no follow through in share price). Extreme bearishness of this Degree should not be seen at wave [2].III, but rather the termination of wave II, prior to the start of wave III. The wave structure supported my initial preferred count, but switching to the alternate count (which had some labeling changes after I actually had to sit down and do ratio analysis on wave structures to confirm the count) removes any confounding issues I initially had.

By David Petch

http://www.treasurechests.info

With the above being just one example of how we go about identifying value for investors, if this is the kind of analysis you are looking for we invite you to visit our site and discover more about how our service can further aid in achieving your financial goals. In this regard, whether it's top down macro-analysis designed to assist in opinion shaping and investment policy, or analysis on specific opportunities in the precious metals and energy sectors believed to possess exceptional value, like mindedly at Treasure Chests we in turn strive to provide the best value possible. So again, pay us a visit and discover why a small investment on your part could pay you handsome rewards in the not too distant future And of course if you have any questions, comments, or criticisms regarding the above, please feel free to drop us a line . We very much enjoy hearing from you on these

Copyright © 2007 treasurechests.info Inc. All rights reserved.

Unless otherwise indicated, all materials on these pages are copyrighted by treasurechests.info Inc. No part of these pages, either text or image may be used for any purpose other than personal use. Therefore, reproduction, modification, storage in a retrieval system or retransmission, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or otherwise, for reasons other than personal use, is strictly prohibited without prior written permission.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Comments within the text should not be construed as specific recommendations to buy or sell securities. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities as we are not registered brokers or advisors. Certain statements included herein may constitute "forward-looking statements" with the meaning of certain securities legislative measures. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the above mentioned companies, and / or industry results, to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Do your own due diligence.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in