Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Investing in Crypto Currencies With Both Eyes WIDE OPEN! - 25th Oct 21
Is Bitcoin a Better Inflation Hedge Than Gold? - 25th Oct 21
S&P 500 Stirs the Gold Pot - 25th Oct 21
Stock Market Against Bond Market Odds - 25th Oct 21
Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market, FED Balance Sheet - 24th Oct 21
To Be or Not to Be: How the Evergrande Crisis Can Affect Gold Price - 24th Oct 21
During a Market Mania, "no prudent professional is perceived to add value" - 24th Oct 21
Stock Market S&P500 Rallies Above $4400 – May Attempt To Advance To $4750~$4800 - 24th Oct 21
Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets - 23rd Oct 21
Easy PC Upgrades with Motherboard Combos - Overclockers UK Unboxing - MB, Memory and Ryzen 5600x CPU - 23rd Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks Q3 2021 - 23rd Oct 21
Gold calmly continues cobbling its Handle, Miners lay in wait - 23rd Oct 21
US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008 - 22nd Oct 21
Extreme Ratios Point to Gold and Silver Price Readjustments - 22nd Oct 21
Bitcoin $100K or Ethereum $10K—which happens first? - 22nd Oct 21
This Isn’t Sci-Fi: How AI Is About To Disrupt This $11 Trillion Industry - 22nd Oct 21
Ravencoin RVN About to EXPLODE to NEW HIGHS! Last Chance to Buy Before it goes to the MOON! - 21st Oct 21
Stock Market Animal Spirits Returning - 21st Oct 21
Inflation Advances, and So Does Gold — Except That It Doesn’t - 21st Oct 21
Why A.I. Is About To Trigger The Next Great Medical Breakthrough - 21st Oct 21
Gold Price Slowly Going Nowhere - 20th Oct 21
Shocking Numbers Show Government Crowding Out Real Economy - 20th Oct 21
Crude Oil Is in the Fast Lane, But Where Is It Going? - 20th Oct 21
3 Tech Stocks That Could Change The World - 20th Oct 21
Best AI Tech Stocks ETF and Investment Trusts - 19th Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Will Investors Dump the Laggards? - 19th Oct 21
The Most Exciting Medical Breakthrough Of The Decade? - 19th Oct 21
Prices Rising as New Dangers Point to Hard Assets - 19th Oct 21
It’s not just Copper; GYX indicated cyclical the whole time - 19th Oct 21
Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia, VIES - Variable Interest Entities - 19th Oct 21
Inflation Peaked Again, Right? - 19th Oct 21
Gold Stocks Bouncing Hard - 19th Oct 21
Stock Market New Intermediate Bottom Forming? - 19th Oct 21
Beware, Gold Bulls — That’s the Beginning of the End - 18th Oct 21
Gold Price Flag Suggests A Big Rally May Start Soon - 18th Oct 21
Inflation Or Deflation – End Result Is Still Depression - 18th Oct 21
A.I. Breakthrough Could Disrupt the $11 Trillion Medical Sector - 18th Oct 21
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 17th Oct 21
The Gold Price And Inflation - 17th Oct 21
Went Long the Crude Oil? Beware of the Headwinds Ahead… - 17th Oct 21
Watch These Next-gen Cloud Computing Stocks - 17th Oct 21
Overclockers UK Custom Built PC 1 YEAR Use Review Verdict - Does it Still Work? - 16th Oct 21
Altonville Mine Tours Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 16th Oct 21
How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
The Only way to Crush Inflation (not stocks) - 14th Oct 21
Why "Losses Are the Norm" in the Stock Market - 14th Oct 21
Sub Species Castle Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 14th Oct 21
Which Wallet is Best for Storing NFTs? - 14th Oct 21
Ailing UK Pound Has Global Effects - 14th Oct 21
How to Get 6 Years Life Out of Your Overclocked PC System, Optimum GPU, CPU and MB Performance - 13th Oct 21
The Demand Shock of 2022 - 12th Oct 21
4 Reasons Why NFTs Could Be The Future - 12th Oct 21
Crimex Silver: Murder Most Foul - 12th Oct 21
Bitcoin Rockets In Preparation For Liftoff To $100,000 - 12th Oct 21
INTEL Tech Stock to the MOON! INTC 2000 vs 2021 Market Bubble WARNING - 11th Oct 21
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Wall of Worry Meets NFPs - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Continues - 11th Oct 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave Analysis - 4th Mar 07 - What a Difference a Day Makes

Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory Mar 04, 2007 - 07:19 PM GMT

By: Dominick


It's funny how one day can change everything for so many traders and investors. But at TTC we just did what we do every day and, as you're about to see, the strategy worked quite nicely!

First, we're still very proud to have ridden the bull market all the way up from last summer's lows, insisting each week that the ride wasn't over yet. After reaching the 1360 target on the SPX it was easy to say “done”, but I refused after reviewing literally hundreds of charts. Instead, I took the stance that a stronger, multi-decade Fib matrix target on the NYSE was asserting itself, and would need to be reached.

We got that high in February, only to find that the wave pattern had some finishing touches to put in on the NYSE. Once the pattern was complete, we zoned into the S&P's last target, along with a number it absolutely couldn't take out without sparking another huge rally. The target was in a range from 1462 to 1470, as was published in a previous update here, with the absolute “must hold” top number of 1481 reserved for subscribers only.

The chart above shows our working pattern, an ending diagonal we'd spotted and traded well in advance of other analysts. Going into last week, it already had touched the lower end of a larger diagonal and moved right into the target of a smaller one. After the gap down Tuesday morning, I came up with our magic number to use for confirmation of a high, which was 1433. The smaller chart on the left shows our confirmation of a top, along with the brutal selloff after losing that line.

At first, I'm sure many bulls and bears looked to buy the dip as they'd been trained to do, which is why the market actually tried to hold 1433 for awhile. We even made a few points scalping it in the chatroom, but I noted as it was holding that we were seeing a sloppy advance and that, if we lost that area, we'd lose another 20 points. Not yet knowing the type of selloff they were about to witness, few buyers probably realized another 20 handles in the S&P was the risk they were taking. But then reality kicked in. The market went directly to 1413, our next target, but couldn't hold as an electronic glitch at the exchange produced a huge spike down. Once that let go, there were no charts to use, just our broker's dome of the ES. Quotes were lagging, and everyone's stops along the summer rise were being hit as a day for the history books played out before our eyes.

What's a trader to do under a market being pressured like that? Keep selling? Well, we didn't play that game at TTC. The truth is, within our live chatroom members were told it was a time to reverse and buy! We didn't get low tick, but were happy to have bought at 1395, and watched the market rocket off the lows. Wednesday we planned on an inside day to digest this move and we got it. Intraday Fib numbers were pulling price like magnets. Targets of 1413 and 1418 proved to be resistance. When we woke up Thursday to another drop, I posted this prior to the opening:

If you have been trading a while, you'll know to shut off the TV's as they are blaming a million things on this drop. Its simple, the market is always looking for a retest of a low like Tuesday. Sometimes it's just above it, sometimes it's a spike and nasty reversal from it.

That said; don't think there isn't any risk here. At these lows, you must see a reversal so that something much larger doesn't happen.

Bottom line, the market was a short play from
5:00am but not sure about now. I will be looking to get long any reversal up.”

Recognizing the type of day that was setting up, we got in the trade and the ES took off from 1381 to 1412 like a Ferrari. Just another intraday move in the bag at TTC!

As promised in January, this is the year of volatility. With these kinds of swings, knowing what degree high might be in isn't on top of our list. Personally, I want to know where the next 30 points are, and there's no doubt in my mind that the action is not being caused by the news. Not when we have so many charts hitting exact targets and reversing.

In the Dow, we had the same diagonal as the S&P, along with target and limit. Basically, you had your entry and your stop, using “Unbiased Elliott”. As you can see, price is attempting to take out the previous 4 th already, or is it? Look for more on that later in this update.

In the European forums, I posted the next chart on January 15 th and told them to enjoy. They really must have, as the Dax reached the Fork and dropped hundreds of points.

Here again, the precise target was hit just as it did at the May top that we called.

They say you don't hear the bells ringing at the top but you have to think maybe we did hear it this time. The important point is that the news we all woke up to on Tuesday morning was not the reason for the selloff. That was merely the excuse for a bubbling market that needed to boil over. How else could I have had all this evidence? So we woke up Monday and China was down big and Greenspan said we'll go into a recession. Greenspan? Didn't he retire?

Last week's updated included my sentiment against the very popular expectation of a cycle high in March. Working from that cyclical bias would have probably had us long into the largest single day point decline in years. Speaking of being caught wrong, I sincerely hope that readers were not hurt during this move, because it could have easily caused some serious financial damage. Traders were so used to buying the dips that they became extremely bullish, and even more telling, beaten up bears had finally capitulated and turned bullish, a sure sign of a high. I had mentioned many times that sentiment indicators weren't throwing off sell signals but my realtime conversations were sensing complacency. Members, even if you didn't short the top tick, I hope my 1433 line gave you a head's up in time to position yourself accordingly!

But even nonmembers who only read the weekly updates could have avoided being sucked into the market at precisely the wrong time, probably just from knowing the NYSE target we'd been tracking. For months now I've been publishing this next chart, and we've all watched it reach the target and reverse.

Not only did we get our expected high after a complete Elliott count, but the icing on the cake was to see confirmation from the trend charts, as the weekly finally turned on Tuesday morning! After seven months of keeping them free from lots of financial stress during a very powerful advance, members were amazed to see the new signal. A complete set of these proprietary charts, from the 5-minute to the weekly chart shown below, is available to members only .

Other posting such as a low to low to high that was due and last week's Fibonacci time chart are just a few of the many reasons why this top came together and why it turned out so violently. Were we surprised? Of course not. In fact, we might have been the only ones riding this rally for every tick and finally reversing where it all came together with confirmation ! Now the question is, will it be a 1987 style crash or a healthy pullback that you will be upset selling into? As far as a crash, I don't think we have one on our hands, or at least not yet.

What Next?

Anyone that's willing to call the next major move so fast is guessing, or biased. We plan on trading these violent swings for another week or two and then make a big picture assessment. A big battle is about to take place early this year as traders defend their position of the markets and finally see what the real count will be. To B or not to B, that is the most asked question in Elliott land. Was this advance from the 2002 lows a B wave or was it and is it still an impulsive move that has much more to go? I'm sure many bearish traders are now feeling comfortable, but should they? The quickness of this selloff could actually open the door to other ideas later. A more grinding selloff that eventually ended in the way this one started would have been better accepted. Either way, we will be sure to be on top of it.  Unless certain levels break, or bullish sentiment comes roaring in, we will be looking to scoop up a bargain very early this week. We hope to get a continuation of Friday's  selloff as we have a number to buy that could mark some type of s/t low, otherwise we are prepared to pay up.

As the Dow chart shows, we are already at the previous 4 th wave, a good target to stop at. OH! And let's not forget my promise from last year that we will stop at 1360 to make a major decision. By the looks of the chart below, the market knows where it belongs, but do we get there now or later?

Unfortunately, traders are so focused on hearing a count and whether the top is in, that they will miss these huge moves that we will continue to get each and every day. Now more than ever, the only safe way to attack this market is in realtime. Check out the rest of the weekend big picture charts posted and then trade along intraday all still for $50 a month. And, if in a week you don't like it, send me an email and I'll refund you the full fee, no questions asked! Must join before March 9, 2007

Also make sure that you are receiving our monthly Newsletter that comes out Sunday, March 4 th . Erick Hadik, Richard Rhodes, Tim Ord and Ray Merriman will have updates in this month's issue. If you need to get onto the list, there is a link at the bottom of this page.


This week was also the week that our bond market chart came alive. Here is that same chart that seemed impossible just a few weeks ago. I know, greenie did it.


Here is one of the charts from one of Joe Oberon's previous updates showing a gold target and the result. Be sure to read this week's Precious Points for the latest on the volatile metals markets.

Have a profitable, and safe week trading, and don't forget:

“Unbiased Elliott Wave works!”

By Dominick

For real-time analysis, become a member for only $50

If you've enjoyed this article, signup for Market Updates , our monthly newsletter, and, for more immediate analysis and market reaction, view my work and the charts exchanged between our seasoned traders in TradingtheCharts forum . Continued success has inspired expansion of the “open access to non subscribers” forums, and our Market Advisory members and I have agreed to post our work in these forums periodically. Explore services from Wall Street's best, including Jim Curry, Tim Ords, Glen Neely, Richard Rhodes, Andre Gratian, Bob Carver, Eric Hadik, Chartsedge, Elliott today, Stock Barometer, Harry Boxer, Mike Paulenoff and others. Try them all, subscribe to the ones that suit your style, and accelerate your trading profits! These forums are on the top of the homepage at Trading the Charts.

Market analysts are always welcome to contribute to the Forum or newsletter. Email me @ if you have any interest.

Disclaimer - This update is provided as general information and is not an investment recommendation. TTC accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses resulting from action taken based on the contents of its charts, commentaries, or price data. Securities and commodities markets involve inherent risk and not all positions are suitable for each individual. Check with your licensed financial advisor or broker prior to taking any action.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in