Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Thursday, April 15, 2010
Stock Market Overbought? No One Cares... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Come on! You have to sit there shaking your head saying this can't be happening. When negative divergences exist it's bad enough. When you throw in the now 80 RSI on the daily charts along with 70+ on the weekly charts, it's just not logical for this market to have days such as it did today with the Nasdaq leading in a fashion a real healthy market should.
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Wednesday, April 14, 2010
S&P 500 Stock Market Trends Forecast for April 2010 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
This is a monthly chart for the S&P 500 showing 20 years of performance. Since this index is the one used by professional traders, it is important to understand how it is performing. This chart is also excellent at defining the longer-term trends for the market.
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Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Stock Market Top, Day Traders 2.0 Will Tank Your IRA / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
A constant theme in the Investment Analysis Report has been to expect the market to move in the opposite direction of the positions of day traders. This has proven successful with regards to the Japanese Yen, the U.S. dollar and the Treasury Bond. Therefore, we were very interested in the New York Times article Day Traders 2.0. We expect that day traders, who are now buying stocks, are again on the wrong side of the trade.
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Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Tracking Stock Market Cycles with Long Wave Dynamics and Theory 144 / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
In the 1920s Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff discovered that international free market capitalism experiences regular boom and bust cycles, he called them long waves. Investors and traders commonly view the long wave as an obscure unproven theory, without profitable application to modern financial markets. Growing evidence suggests that such an assessment of the long wave is a costly error, for both investors and traders.
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Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Is It Time To Short The S&P500 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
A real headwind for the markets -now and in the past - has been when the trends of gold, crude oil, and yields on the 10 year Treasury are strong and rising.
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Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Corporate Earnings Are Upon Us... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
It's that time of year again. It's always that time of year, isn't it! Seems to feel that way to me. It's when we look inside the earnings reports of companies that had lowered the bar a few quarters back thus making it easy for them to meet or exceed expectations. We saw that tonight when we got the news from Intel Corporation (INTC) and CSX Corp. (CSX), a major rail company that has run way up
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Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Stock Market Sector Rotation Points to Continued Economic Recovery / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis
Analysts and economists often refer to the strength or weakness in certain key industrial groups as evidence of a recovering or declining economy. During the recovery phase of a typical business cycle, there is usually greater buying emphasis on industry sectors that reflect a more optimistic stance.
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Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Somewhere Between Now and May We’re Going to Have a Real Stock Market Rollover / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Well known market analyst Robert Prechter, who strongly favored stocks in March of 2009, says it’s time to get out:
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Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Stock Market Greek Euphoria Fades And Alcoa Disappoints / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Looking across markets this morning I am struggling to identify consistent themes. Perhaps a little disappointingly, equities have largely failed to kick on despite confirmation of the Greek aid package over the weekend. That said, US markets did close up small enough to see the Dow close just above 11,000 and the VIX has declined to a new low (indeed the lowest level seen since July 2007). Stocks wise AIG (+8.10%) on speculation the Treasury Department may lower its stake in the bailed-out insurer and Peabody (+1.66%) as the company and state-owned Coal India are discussing possible cooperative ventures as part of broad-ranging, preliminary talks.
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Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Common Sense, Bogus Metrics Plus Baloney Justifications, Is Silver cheap relative to Gold? / Stock-Markets / Trader Psychology
Almost every other day I receive an email from a concerned investor asking me if some asset is cheap relative to another asset or if some metric justifies that some perceived outcome is about to unfold.
Among the various question
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Monday, April 12, 2010
Sovereign Debt Disaster Will Favor Hard Assets / Stock-Markets / Global Debt Crisis
In the event of a full-blown sovereign debt crisis, hard assets will become deeply desirable as one of the few “stores of value” left.
…all too often the size of debts, especially government debts, is hidden from investors until it comes jumping out of the woodwork after a crisis. – Prof. Ken Rogoff, Financial Times column, “Bubbles lurk in government debt”
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Monday, April 12, 2010
Stock Market Trend 2010, It's 2007 All Over Again! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Several weeks ago I speculated that we were "On the brink of an asset explosion" . So far events are unfolding about as expected. I might even say they are moving more aggressively than I thought. Well actually, there’s no doubt this cyclical bull is unfolding much more aggressively than anyone expected.
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Monday, April 12, 2010
Global Banking System Still Quietly Bankrupt / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2010
Inquiring minds are reading an excellent post by John Hussman about Stock Market Valuations, Extend and Pretend Banking, Public Policy on Housing Bailouts, and Solvency of the Banking System. Here are a few snips from Extend and Pretend.
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Monday, April 12, 2010
Gold Protection as U.S. Drifts From Freedom to Facism / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Orwell was right all along. Big Brother (the bureaucracy) is to grow too powerful for anybody’s good. And this is now happening in America, where the Ministry of Truth broadcasts endless propaganda daily to affect opinion and beliefs, and the authority of the Thought Police has grown to such proportions we can now say, here we are, totalitarianism is upon us a la 1984. What’s more, if this was not evident to you before, it should be now with Obamacare, the single most offensive blow to the citizenry’s constitutional rights in the history of the United States, and voted in despite being at odds with the will of the people.
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Monday, April 12, 2010
Dow 11,000 Today?, Yay Greece Debt Crisis Solved, Again! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Certainly this has to (again) be the catalyst that (again) gets us over 11,000 this morning. Perhaps if this doesn’t do the trick the Fed can come out with a statement that they will be leaving monetary policy at FREE for another 6 months (again) or perhaps Obama can say he thinks we should put more Americans to work (again) or perhaps some of the Gang of 12 analysts can come out with even bigger earnings estimates (again).
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Monday, April 12, 2010
Markets Gets Clarity as Greece Gets Some Breathing Space / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
For some time now markets have been crying out for clarity over the size and price of the EU’s proposed aid package for Greece. Prompted by last week’s developments in the Greek bond market, that clarity has finally arrived. Risk sentiment rebounded on Friday as newswires reported that EU finance ministers would be holding a conference call on Sunday to hammer out the details of a package that would be substantial in order to get the attention of markets. The EU Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs, Ollie Rehn, said that EU finance ministers had agreed that Greece would be provided with up to €30bn of three-year loans at an interest rate of around 5% (the actual rate will be 300bps over the relevant Euribor swap rate with an additional 50bps service charge).
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Monday, April 12, 2010
Financial Reform Fades While The Need Escalates / Stock-Markets / Market Regulation
The need for reform and re-regulation of the financial industry increases, while the odds of meaningful reform fade with every action and statement by those involved.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 12, 2010
Foreign Stock Markets Outshine U.S. on Increasing Investor Risk Appetite / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Jon D. Markman writes: U.S. stocks carved out one of their patented half-percent advances last week -- a little sloppy, to be sure, yet not bad at all considering their very overbought condition.
The stars of the global capital show this month, though, have been markets in China and Europe, as they shook off their multi-month torpor to score big wins. With a scorching 6% advance in the past two weeks, ishares FTSE Xinhua China 25 Index (NYSE: FXI) nosed up to log a +5.5% gain for the year after being negative for three months. And the ishares S&P Europe 350 Index (NYSE: IEV) rose 1%, putting it at flat for the year after malingering below zero.
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Monday, April 12, 2010
SPX Stocks Index Nears 1200 Trend Reversal Level / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Current Position of the Market
Very Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles are down and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until 2014.
SPX: Long-term trend - We are in a medium-term bull market, which is a corrective move within a long term bear market. This bull market should last until 2011
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Sunday, April 11, 2010
Manufacturing a Minsky Stock Market Melt-Up! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
A distracted and preoccupied amateur is no match for a determined, organized professional with a strategy. Though the collapse of the shadow banking system was a near fatal miscue for the global bankers, they have been quick to adjust their strategy. With an army of MBAs, quants and lobbyists they have reworked their strategy at the expense of the still comatose and shaken taxpayer.
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