Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Thursday, April 29, 2010
Stock Market Minor Top Is Nigh / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The Greek "crisis" continues to unfold almost uniformly to our expectations, and its ramifications for the EU as a whole are certainly not painting a rosy picture for the coming decades.
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Thursday, April 29, 2010
Stock Market Snapback Session / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The stock market indices started with a gap up today, but quickly sold off reaching new pullback lows on the Nasdaq 100 in the 1992 area. At that point the S&P 500 retested yesterday's late lows near the 1182 area but held. That triggered a 5-wave snapback rally. In the last hour they rolled over, took back nearly half of the rally, but bounced in the last 10 minutes to close up on the day.
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Thursday, April 29, 2010
Stock Market Parabolic To Lateral..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Often times, when a market has had a rather large move up or down, it will need time to consolidate the move. To digest, it if you will. The market has made an enormous move higher since early February. A two-month plus move higher that was almost literally straight up. It is quite possible we have simply entered the lateral handle or consolidation phase that will need to be played delicately. A handle, once established, that can be played on weakness near the bottom. You go more to cash near the top of the range.
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Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Great Insight Into The Consumer And Retail Stock Sector / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis
I had the privilege yesterday of receiving an email from Richard Davis of the Consumer Metrics Institute, Inc. Mr. Davis had read my blog post on the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (symbol: XRT), and he has graciously allowed me to post his email below with some very interesting data and insights with regards to the consumer.
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Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Goldman And The PIIGS Keep Stock Market Jittery / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The price action and news headlines Tuesday were dominated by US rating agency Standard and Poor’s decision to downgrade the sovereign ratings of Greece and Portugal to BB+ (by a savage and unprecedented three notches) and A- (down two notches) respectively. This saw a dramatic further significant ballooning in bond spreads and CDS to fresh highs whilst the domestic equity markets were down 6% and 5% respectively. With the downgrade of Greek sovereign ratings, the fate of Greek depends on ratings action by the other two major rating agencies Moody’s and Fitch.
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Wednesday, April 28, 2010
The #1 Rule for Making Money Is to Buy Whatever Chinese Are Buying / Stock-Markets / Investing 2010
I’ve said it hundreds, perhaps thousands, of times in this column, and in speeches and interviews that I’ve given over the last decade: “The #1 rule for making money over the next decade is to get long whatever the Chinese are buying.”
What are the Chinese buying? The list is long, but simple and logical.
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Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Stock Market Warning Sign, Global Liquidity is Drying Up! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
In last week’s Money and Markets column I told you the majority of my indicators are signaling that the stock market has probably entered the last phase of its medium-term uptrend, which began in March 2009.
I went over price-to-earnings ratios (based on twelve-months trailing GAAP earnings) and dividend yields. Both metrics are showing a heavily overvalued market.
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Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Fibonacci Trading Grids and the Fading Stock Market 1228 S&P 500 Target / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Investors and traders are increasingly recognizing the value of using Fibonacci ratios to anticipate support and resistance prices in major equity indexes. Fibonacci ratios are natural phenomena found in seashells, tree rings, music masterpieces like Beethoven’s ninth symphony, and even in the order found in the structure of galaxies.
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Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Stock Market Jitters, Correction and Support / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Tuesday's sharp sell-off in the NYSE is part of an extended market. Jitters about debt concerns in Greece and Portugal coupled with the Goldman Sachs hearing before the Senate has caused the broad-based index to correct. The NYSE is now on the first key support level of 7400-7500 (Chart 1).
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Wednesday, April 28, 2010
S&P 500 Corporate Earnings Beating Estimates / Stock-Markets / Corporate Earnings
To the surprise of many, the first quarter 2010 earnings for many S&P 500 companies are beating estimates, some substantially. If this is an indication of greater strength in the economy, does this mean the market rally will continue?
Analysts are behind the curve in raising their earnings estimates during the recovery. For example, over the last year quarterly earnings has surprised to the upside between 6 and 13 percent according to Thompson Reuters.
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Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Could Greek Debt Tragedy Morph into a Lehman Meltdown Market Crash? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
In an eerie sense of déjà vu, German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble pleaded with his country’s citizens on April 20th, to back a joint EU-IMF bail out for Greece worth up to €45-billion, warning that failure to act would risk another global financial meltdown. “We cannot allow the bankruptcy of a Euro member state like Greece to turn into a second Lehman Brothers,” he told Der Spiegel. “Greece’s debts are all in Euros, and it isn’t clear who holds how much of those debts. The consequences of a national bankruptcy would be incalculable. Greece is just as systemically important as a major bank,” Schauble warned.
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Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Stock Market Sell Signals Abound, VIX Spikes Higher, XLF Says Good-bye to Support / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Again Today on Financial Overhaul Bill - The U.S. Senate will take a second vote today on Democrats’ effort to overcome Republican objections and begin debate on financial-overhaul legislation.
“What are you afraid of?” Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada said to Republicans on the Senate floor today, arguing that the proposal can be amended during debate. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, responded by saying, “This bill isn’t ready” and that more negotiations are needed.
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Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Stock Market Decisive Down Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The stock market indices had a decisively negative session today, gapping down from the get-go, snapping back in an early rally try but failing at resistance and then rolling over hard. By mid-day they bounced to test resistance once again, but failed again, and then rolled over just as hard in the afternoon.
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Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Stock Market Breaks Lower, Most 20-Day EMA's Gone...50's On Deck... / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Only the Nasdaq out of all of the major index charts is now still above its 20-day exponential moving average. It's above by just a few points thus its hanging by a thread. Not likely to hold. The S&P 500, Dow and total market, the WLSH, all lost their 20-day exponential moving averages today and did so on solid volume and a very poor advance decline line. The selling was real. The confluence of overbought daily and weekly charts across the board along with negative divergences on the daily charts and finally some poor sentiment conditions took over today. It was about time. The market was more than due for a beating but simply refused to sell off day after day.
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Wednesday, April 28, 2010
MortiES' EOD Analysis, Stock Market Entering Dangerous Ground! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
This is the article and chart my premium subscribers received this evening. I always get myself in trouble when I start finding triangles forming. This is not the first time a triangle failed and the bottom fell out of the market. Seeing it twice will make me more alert to this possibility in the future.
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Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Financial Markets React to Germany Disappointing Greece Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
In a session yesterday that was largely devoid of economic data, most of the focus was again on Europe’s fiscally troubled sovereigns. Whilst ECB President Trichet noted that he was confident that negotiations on the Greek fiscal package would be “concluded soon and rightly”, Greek 2-year bond yields surged 294bps to 13.16% with the 10-year yield up 91bps to 9.56%. Markets were a little disconcerted by a statement made by German Chancellor Merkel, who faces a state election on 9 May.
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Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Early Corporate Earnings Season Indicators Looking Good … / Stock-Markets / Corporate Earnings
Yet another earnings season is upon us, and so far things are looking good.
For example, through the middle of last week about 85 stocks in the S&P 500 (worth 26 percent of the index’s total value) had reported their results. And all told, 82 percent of those companies had beaten Wall Street’s estimates. Their aggregate results also represented a 5 percent gain over results during the same quarter last year.
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Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Stock Market Topping Action Start of the Great Reversal / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
(MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks wavered Monday, with upbeat results from Caterpillar Inc. and Whirlpool Corp. boosting confidence, but with the government's plan to begin divesting itself of Citigroup Inc. weighing on financials.
"The markets have been doing just about what they're supposed to do, which is if the economic numbers are better than forecast, or if earnings are better than forecast, then the market should go up," said Hugh Johnson, chairman of Johnson Illington Advisors. "Valuation is starting to become an issue. The going is getting tougher, although that doesn't mean we're not going to continue to go up," he added.
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Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Stock Market Churning Near Target Measurment... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
One thing about those inverse head and shoulder patterns that have taken months to form is that they often make their exact measurements or at least get within one percent of that measurement over time. We have the Nasdaq with a head at 2100 and shoulders at 2325. This measures 225 points or 2550. Today's high was 2335 and that's less than one percent away from full measurement. Not bad at all. We may still get to 2350, but we came very close and that may be close enough. The problem from here being we are so darn violently overbought on those daily charts, not to mention being overbought on the weekly charts as well.
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Tuesday, April 27, 2010
The Stock Market Recovery Rally Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
How creative do we have to be after eight consecutive weeks of a positive market to make this week more interesting than the last eight? Earnings continue to be a bit better than expectations, Greece is still trying to get funded and the economy is still bumping along. So with the so-so backdrop, why does the market continue to march higher? It is the only game in town! Short-term interest rates continue to be held near zero (we’ll hear more this week) as the Fed worries about the frailty of the economic recovery. Inflation, as reported last week, remains high, however much of the gain is in food/energy prices (the stuff we never buy!).
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