Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, May 03, 2010
Monday Munificence, Greece “Fixed” for Only $146Bn, Who’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Yay, Greece is fixed…. again.
Now we only have to worry about Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Ireland, Japan, Netherlands, Portugal and, of course, the UK - who all have WORSE Sovereign Debt to GDP ratios than Spain (who are up next on the "wall of worry" the markets are climbing) while we pretend that the US is in "good" shape because we "only" have $15Tn in debt on a $14Tn economy, which is how we, through the IMF, were able to write Greece a $20Bn check this weekend.
Monday, May 03, 2010
All Eyes Remain on Greece / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Over the past sixteen weeks the markets have managed only a few declines, pressing ever higher, skirting sovereign risk (Greece, Spain, Portugal – anyone else?), avoiding legal action against Goldman Sachs (adding criminal charges to the civil) and still modest economic growth, although better than expected earnings. The Fed, by keeping interest rates pegged at near zero has allowed the party to continue. Like the Staples commercial – that was easy! However the volatility that accompanied the decline late last week now have investors concerned that just maybe this is the beginning of the long awaited correction that will (finally) take stocks down more than just the few percentage points experienced so far this year.
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Monday, May 03, 2010
Shades Of A Stock Market Mania / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
In the pushing it to the limit department, as some of you may know, I am caring for an aging parent right now (and experiencing rapid mental decay), and yesterday was one of those days that commanded all my time until the wee hours of the morning here. Thusly, this will be short, but sweet. And this is quite possibly the sweetest shorting opportunity in stocks since the tops in either 2000 or 2007, as key measures are indicating we definitely have ‘shades of a stock market mania’ that in fact go beyond the two tops witnessed last decade. Let me explain as succinctly as possible in an attempt to get this out to you before trade begins in North America this morning.
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Monday, May 03, 2010
Stock Market In A Dangerous Place To Be? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Today's chart is seen everyday by our paid subscribers (It is found in Section 4, Chart #3.)
A key aspect for this chart is whether or not it is above or below its support lines.
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Monday, May 03, 2010
Debt Crisis and Stock Market Trend, Is it 1998 All Over Again? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
That's the question we're asking in tonight's report in light of developments in the euro-zone and, to a lesser extent, within the investment banking sector. Thursday's headline in the Wall Street Journal proclaimed, "Debt crisis hits Spain." The implication is that the recent downgrade of the sovereign debt ratings for Greece and Portugal have now spread even further into Europe and could continue to spread into a general euro-zone wide debt crisis.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 03, 2010
Stocks Somersault Into the Red But European Debt Crisis Won't Derail U.S. Economy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Jon D. Markman writes: Stocks somersaulted into the red early last week in the wake of European debt downgrades, rising revulsion over the prospect of a bailout of Athens and a broad re-pricing of risk. Breadth was negative, the number of new highs shrank and number of new lows swelled. Financials tumbled and retailers stumbled. Caution flags are rising.
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Sunday, May 02, 2010
Stock Market Sentiment and Monetary Aggregates - Watch Out Paperbugs! / Stock-Markets / Money Supply
The whole M1/M2/M3/MZM (among others) monetary aggregate thing is pretty dry and I am no expert on which one is most important and the fine distinctions between them. It's all paperbug drivel to intellectualize an unsustainable debt-backed paper currency system in my opinion. However, one thing is clear: when the higher monetary aggregates (e.g. M2 and M3) start declining precipitously, you can bet a recession is on the way with a high probability of being right.
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Sunday, May 02, 2010
Stock Market Top and Correction Trend Forecast to Follow January Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The past few weeks I have been talking about the SP500 forming a top similar to the January top we saw earlier this year. Well the charts below show exactly what I have been waiting for to unfold and I think the time has come for the market to take a healthy breather before continuing this strong bull market which could last another 12 -24 months before really topping out.
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Sunday, May 02, 2010
Greece Debt Crisis Storm Cripples Stock Market Rally Resulting Stock Price Churn / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
The stock market rally on cruise control was hit head on by the Greek Debt Crisis throughout the week. First hit took the Dow down sharply on Tuesday to a low of 10974 which embolden the bears to see a potential meltdown in motion. On Wednesday the stock market bounced higher from the open that continued into Thursday taking the Dow to a high of 11,200 as the debt markets calmed (temporarily).
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Sunday, May 02, 2010
Global Debt Crisis Hits Markets, The Moment of Truth is Upon Us / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
We started out the week with a bang when it was announced that Goldman Sachs was being charged with fraud by the SEC. This sounds ominous at first glance, but in the end it’s a civil matter and will result with no more than a fine and a slap on the wrist. Then toward the middle of the week when the ratings agencies began to write down sovereign debt, first with Greece and then a day later with Spain and Portugal. It seems to me that these agencies no longer serve a purpose as these downgrades are nothing more than an acknowledgement of a situation that we all know existed for quite some time.
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Saturday, May 01, 2010
Nasdaq NDX Tek Stock Index Weekly Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
“In the middle of the journey of our life, I came to myself within a dark wood where the straight way was lost.”– From The Divine Comedy by Dante Alighieri
The way they talk it in the media, it sounds like Greece is the end of the world, Portugal the purgatory, and Spain the Hell.
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Saturday, May 01, 2010
Stock Market More Bearish Food For Thought / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
I do not believe in "pure" technical analysis (i.e. in a vacuum). Knowing that we are in a secular general stock bear market and secular Gold and Gold stock bull market colors my views. A pure chartist may see blue skies from here to Dow 20,000, but a deflationary secular private sector debt collapse plus helicopter Ben and his crew does not equal a new secular general stock bull market in my opinion. While I understand that currency debasement can mask real losses by propping up nominal price levels, I am a long-term Gold investor - not a paperbug. I understand the game and how its played, at least as much as a retail ant is allowed to.
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Saturday, May 01, 2010
Stock Market Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
My 2010 forecast, which was released in early January, remains pretty well on tract. The only difference has been the contraction into the cyclical low in February. Statistically, that low was ideally due in late March. Nonetheless, my statistical data also told me that once that low was made, there was an 81% chance of a higher recovery high and that has certainly been seen. The task now at hand is the identification of the top of this longer-term bear market rally.
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Saturday, May 01, 2010
Indian Stock Market Detailed Technical Analysis with Chart studies / Stock-Markets / India
As was expected, there were wild moves on both sides owing to Options expiration. Since largest OI was centered around 5200, Nifty hovered and closed pretty much near it. After trading in a very narrow range all of last week, it closed pretty much where it left the previous week. This shows the tug of war between bulls and bears. Neither sure which way to trade at the end of the day/week. In our last analysis though we stated that there is chance of Negative Divergence building up and that would be give us two things.
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Saturday, May 01, 2010
Stock Market Worst Losing Week Since Jan / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The stock market indices took it on the chin Friday as profit taking set in and the indices finally had their worst losing week since January. Whether we get a downside follow-through next week and break the topping patterns that are appearing on the hourly charts is still in question. Key support around the 1995 - 2000 zone on the Nasdaq 100 and 1180-83 zone on the S&P 500 certainly should be tested.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 01, 2010
Stock Market Back Down...50's On Deck / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
When you're in a handle it is normal to simply move up and down. Feels weird as this takes place because you get a lot of volatility within a very defined range. That range being about 4% on the S&P 500. I think we can trade down in this range as low as the 50-day exponential moving average or 1170. The high in this move being 1220, although there is now a gap at 1213. If you're trading within a 50-point range you can, and often do, get some very violent swings up and down that test you emotionally.
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Saturday, May 01, 2010
Is the Dow Stocks Index Getting Ready to Crash? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
The DOW has had a remarkable recovery from the lows that were seen in March of '09. The question now is, are we headed higher, or is the move over for now?
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Saturday, May 01, 2010
SPX Has a Cautionary Pattern / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Consumer Spending “Lifts” the Economy - The U.S. economy expanded at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter as households spent more freely, setting the stage for gains in employment that may help the recovery broaden and accelerate.
The increase in gross domestic product was in line with the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and capped the biggest six-month gain since 2003, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Consumer spending rose by the most in three years.
Friday, April 30, 2010
Trap for Stock Market Bulls, Profit Opportunity for Others / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Equities Markets are becoming a Trap for Investors, but a substantial Profit Opportunity is developing in other Markets, as we explain.
The now nearly fourteen months long Equities Rally is not raging, but continues to grind fitfully upward, except Tuesday this week.
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Friday, April 30, 2010
GDWheee Friday - Could be a Wild Stock Market Ride! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Attention ladies and gentlemen: The stock market will soon be leaving the station, please secure all personal items, pull down the safety bar (our Disaster Hedges) and keep all body parts inside ride at all times. Well you know you can follow all of the safety instructions and STILL get smacked in the face with a black swan (like our friend Fabio, pictured here) which is why we elected to get back to cash ahead of this report. The markets were just too insane this week and who the heck knows if Europe will still be a Union on Monday or what the GDP number is going to be (but I do think it’s a miss).
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