Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Stock Market Greek Euphoria Fades And Alcoa Disappoints / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Looking across markets this morning I am struggling to identify consistent themes. Perhaps a little disappointingly, equities have largely failed to kick on despite confirmation of the Greek aid package over the weekend. That said, US markets did close up small enough to see the Dow close just above 11,000 and the VIX has declined to a new low (indeed the lowest level seen since July 2007). Stocks wise AIG (+8.10%) on speculation the Treasury Department may lower its stake in the bailed-out insurer and Peabody (+1.66%) as the company and state-owned Coal India are discussing possible cooperative ventures as part of broad-ranging, preliminary talks.
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Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Common Sense, Bogus Metrics Plus Baloney Justifications, Is Silver cheap relative to Gold? / Stock-Markets / Trader Psychology
Almost every other day I receive an email from a concerned investor asking me if some asset is cheap relative to another asset or if some metric justifies that some perceived outcome is about to unfold.
Among the various question
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Monday, April 12, 2010
Sovereign Debt Disaster Will Favor Hard Assets / Stock-Markets / Global Debt Crisis
In the event of a full-blown sovereign debt crisis, hard assets will become deeply desirable as one of the few “stores of value” left.
…all too often the size of debts, especially government debts, is hidden from investors until it comes jumping out of the woodwork after a crisis. – Prof. Ken Rogoff, Financial Times column, “Bubbles lurk in government debt”
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Monday, April 12, 2010
Stock Market Trend 2010, It's 2007 All Over Again! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Several weeks ago I speculated that we were "On the brink of an asset explosion" . So far events are unfolding about as expected. I might even say they are moving more aggressively than I thought. Well actually, there’s no doubt this cyclical bull is unfolding much more aggressively than anyone expected.
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Monday, April 12, 2010
Global Banking System Still Quietly Bankrupt / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2010
Inquiring minds are reading an excellent post by John Hussman about Stock Market Valuations, Extend and Pretend Banking, Public Policy on Housing Bailouts, and Solvency of the Banking System. Here are a few snips from Extend and Pretend.
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Monday, April 12, 2010
Gold Protection as U.S. Drifts From Freedom to Facism / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Orwell was right all along. Big Brother (the bureaucracy) is to grow too powerful for anybody’s good. And this is now happening in America, where the Ministry of Truth broadcasts endless propaganda daily to affect opinion and beliefs, and the authority of the Thought Police has grown to such proportions we can now say, here we are, totalitarianism is upon us a la 1984. What’s more, if this was not evident to you before, it should be now with Obamacare, the single most offensive blow to the citizenry’s constitutional rights in the history of the United States, and voted in despite being at odds with the will of the people.
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Monday, April 12, 2010
Dow 11,000 Today?, Yay Greece Debt Crisis Solved, Again! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Certainly this has to (again) be the catalyst that (again) gets us over 11,000 this morning. Perhaps if this doesn’t do the trick the Fed can come out with a statement that they will be leaving monetary policy at FREE for another 6 months (again) or perhaps Obama can say he thinks we should put more Americans to work (again) or perhaps some of the Gang of 12 analysts can come out with even bigger earnings estimates (again).
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Monday, April 12, 2010
Markets Gets Clarity as Greece Gets Some Breathing Space / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
For some time now markets have been crying out for clarity over the size and price of the EU’s proposed aid package for Greece. Prompted by last week’s developments in the Greek bond market, that clarity has finally arrived. Risk sentiment rebounded on Friday as newswires reported that EU finance ministers would be holding a conference call on Sunday to hammer out the details of a package that would be substantial in order to get the attention of markets. The EU Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs, Ollie Rehn, said that EU finance ministers had agreed that Greece would be provided with up to €30bn of three-year loans at an interest rate of around 5% (the actual rate will be 300bps over the relevant Euribor swap rate with an additional 50bps service charge).
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Monday, April 12, 2010
Financial Reform Fades While The Need Escalates / Stock-Markets / Market Regulation
The need for reform and re-regulation of the financial industry increases, while the odds of meaningful reform fade with every action and statement by those involved.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 12, 2010
Foreign Stock Markets Outshine U.S. on Increasing Investor Risk Appetite / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Jon D. Markman writes: U.S. stocks carved out one of their patented half-percent advances last week -- a little sloppy, to be sure, yet not bad at all considering their very overbought condition.
The stars of the global capital show this month, though, have been markets in China and Europe, as they shook off their multi-month torpor to score big wins. With a scorching 6% advance in the past two weeks, ishares FTSE Xinhua China 25 Index (NYSE: FXI) nosed up to log a +5.5% gain for the year after being negative for three months. And the ishares S&P Europe 350 Index (NYSE: IEV) rose 1%, putting it at flat for the year after malingering below zero.
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Monday, April 12, 2010
SPX Stocks Index Nears 1200 Trend Reversal Level / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Current Position of the Market
Very Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles are down and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until 2014.
SPX: Long-term trend - We are in a medium-term bull market, which is a corrective move within a long term bear market. This bull market should last until 2011
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Sunday, April 11, 2010
Manufacturing a Minsky Stock Market Melt-Up! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
A distracted and preoccupied amateur is no match for a determined, organized professional with a strategy. Though the collapse of the shadow banking system was a near fatal miscue for the global bankers, they have been quick to adjust their strategy. With an army of MBAs, quants and lobbyists they have reworked their strategy at the expense of the still comatose and shaken taxpayer.
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Sunday, April 11, 2010
Stocks Stealth Bull Market Touches Dow 11,000 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Whilst the blogosfear still asks the question whether this is a bear market rally or a new bull market, the stocks stealth bull market achieves a new milestone right at the end of the week by touching the Dow 11k target as indicated in last weeks brief update as the weeks most probable trend outcome.
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Sunday, April 11, 2010
Stock Markets Continue Ascent on Decreasing Volume / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The equity markets continue their ascent on decreasing volume, and the only rationale for such persistent bullishness is the unwillingness of investors to embrace the current rally. Is this the "wall of worry" or fool hearted speculation? The data would suggest the latter as newsletter writers to Rydex market timers to option traders are "all in".
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Sunday, April 11, 2010
Stock Market Big Bets Gone Sideways / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The upward stock market trend remains firmly intact. All major technical indicators are strengthening, thereby lowering the probability of a correction or pullback. From a fundamental perspective, the macro indicators strongly suggests a resurging American and global economy. So why do I remain such a skeptic?
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Sunday, April 11, 2010
Indian Stock Market Technical Analysis / Stock-Markets / India
Previous Week: Last Week Nifty made yet another new high, but barely closed above previous weeks close. The bullishness continued throughout the week with just a single session in red. All the indicators have been in Overbought territory for a while now. This has been the case for almost all of the world indices.
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Sunday, April 11, 2010
Stocks Bear Market Dow Theory Update / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
At the time of my late March article that was posted here, there was a short-term Dow theory non-confirmation at play. I explained that this non-confirmation had drawn less attention than the one that had occurred earlier in March, but that these non-confirmations only served as warnings and that it was what developed from that point that was most important. Since that time, the latest short-term non-confirmation has again been corrected.
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Sunday, April 11, 2010
Big Banks Hiding Real Debt and Risk Levels from Investors in Corporate Earnings Reports / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Major banks have masked their risk levels in the past five quarters by temporarily lowering their debt just before reporting it to the public, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. A group of 18 banks—which includes Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc.—understated the debt levels used to fund securities trades by lowering them an average of 42% at the end of each of the past five quarterly periods, the data show. The banks, which publicly release debt data each quarter, then boosted the debt levels in the middle of successive quarters.
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Sunday, April 11, 2010
Stock Market Consolidation Ahead Of Earnings... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The market is relentless. No fun being a bear the past many months. Every time the market flashes a near-term get out of dodge signal, the bears can't seem to make it happen. All overbought conditions barely unwind before heading back higher. All negative divergences get ignored. It's bizarre. It's more than unusual, but it is what it is. A powerful bull market not seen since 1999.
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Saturday, April 10, 2010
Credit Default Swaps Threaten the Whole System, Real Financial Form Needed / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2010
It's Time for Reform We Can Believe In
The Fed Must Be Independent
Credit Default Swaps Threaten the System
Too Big To Fail Must Go
And This Thing About Leverage
What Happens If We Do Nothing?
Casey Stengel, manager of the hapless 1962 New York Mets, once famously asked, after an especially dismal outing, "Can't anybody here play this game?" This week I ask, after months of worse than no progress, "Can't anybody here even spell financial reform, let alone get it done?"
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