Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Wednesday, January 13, 2021

Are Covid Lockdowns Bullish or Bearish for Stocks? FTSE 100 in Focus / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: EWI

"The market has a law of its own. It is not propelled by the external causality..."

Elliott Wave International has long held -- and proven -- that events outside of the market do not determine the long-term trend of prices. In the short term, news and events can, and often do, contribute to market volatility -- although, not always, and not always "logically." But then the long-term trend resumes.

We've shown countless examples of that on these pages -- and here's one of the latest: the lockdowns related to covid. One might conclude that investors would view the business interruptions resulting from a lockdown as a sign that stock prices would decline. Hence, a selloff would occur with each lockdown announcement.

Tuesday, January 12, 2021

Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold – How Much Are They Worth? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Kelsey_Williams

Stock prices, according to the S&P 500, are up seventy percent from their lows last April. The Nasdaq Composite at its most recent high point was up even more, sporting a ninety-five percent increase from its nadir. A number of individual stocks have done even better.

For the entire year 2020, however, stocks were up a more modest sixteen percent (S&P 500) and only seven percent for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

However, the outsized performance of the Nasdaq was even more apparent on a full calendar year basis. For 2020 the Nasdaq was up forty-three percent. Relative to its peers, the average Nasdaq stock was up more than three to four times as much as non-Nasdaq stocks.

Tuesday, January 12, 2021

SPX Short-term Top Imminent / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first quarter of 2021 before coming to an end.

SPX Intermediate trend:  May continue until SPX recaches 4150 in February.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Sunday, January 10, 2021

Financial Market Forecasts 2021: Navigation in Uncharted Waters / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger lays out the foundation for his investment strategy in the new year, with uranium and copper augmenting his focus on the precious metals.

As I sat down in mid-December to formulate the draft outline for my 2021 Forecast Issue, I was immediately engulfed with a feeling of impending dread, not by way of dissatisfaction with the investments currently being held in my portfolio and trading accounts, but by being confronted with such a vast array of possible outcomes in the upcoming year 2021. Adding insult to injury, it is also the uncertainty of outcomes that places forecasts directly in the crosshairs of failure and embarrassment, resulting in fewer and less happy subscribers.

In contrast, during the same period one year ago, I knew that the single greatest issue facing us was managing the rapidly approaching debt monster, which allowed me to assume that markets would not look kindly upon the U.S. Fed chairman Jerome Powell and his sudden about-face in monetary policy. When the REPO fiasco began in Q3/2019, it was as plain as the nose on his face that Powell looked into the crystal ball and was horrified with what he saw. His vain (and lame) attempt to "normalize" the Fed balance sheet earlier that year had laid to bare a pitifully fragile debt structure teetering on the brink of implosion. He and his global central bank brethren sprang to action, flooding the world with wave after wave of counterfeit cash otherwise known as "liquidity."

Saturday, January 09, 2021

Cheers for the 2021 Stock Market and These "Great Expectations" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: EWI

Insights into "the most speculative of strategies ... among the most speculative of traders"

We're reminded during this time of year of the wonderful classic by Charles Dickens, "A Christmas Carol."

As you probably know, the Victorian-era British novelist also wrote several other books, including "Great Expectations."

Friday, January 08, 2021

Who is Buying and Selling Stocks in 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Troy_Bombardia

I wish you a happy and prosperous New Year. May 2021 bring you and your family good health and success.

Looking back, 2020 was a year that few will forget. From a markets point of view, it was a year in which “dumb money” (traders who chase trends) was the smart money. Global central bank intervention caused a “wall of money” to flow from one asset to another, resulting in a year when “everything went up”.

Thursday, January 07, 2021

Inflation the bug-bear looking forward through 2021 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Christopher_Quigley

Since the Covid 19 crisis began in March 2020 just over 10 trillion dollars have been pumped into the World's economies. This is the reason why the stock markets are breaking into new highs despite the fact that most countries are in recession.

"Given the broad global impact of the COVID-19 crisis, few populations, businesses, sectors, or regions have been able to avoid the knock-on economic effects. That means government measures have had to support large parts of the economy in a very short time to maintain financial stability, maintain household economic welfare, and help companies survive the crisis. In addition, countries have tended to escalate their interventions as the crisis increases in severity and lockdowns persist. Nine of ten countries in our data set have already announced at least one additional financial-relief or -stimulus package. Two-thirds of countries have announced three or more packages, while a few countries have announced as many as six or seven packages".

Thursday, January 07, 2021

5 Financial Market Surprises in 2021 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Jared_Dillian

Plenty of people made predictions for 2020, with hilarious results.

So for 2021, I am going to give you my list of surprises instead.

Tuesday, January 05, 2021

Stock Market Approaching an Important Target / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first quarter of 2021 before coming to an end.

SPX Intermediate trend:  New intermediate uptrend ending?

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Monday, January 04, 2021

The Year the World Fell Down the Rabbit Hole / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

Conspiracies and bias hurt investors

It’s no wonder so many people have been unable to attain proper market positioning in 2020. You invest with your heart, soul, fears or even sometimes your intellect and you risk blowing yourself up at worst, or missing out at best. For much of 2020 Twitter has been a forum for ‘influencers’ with tens of thousands of followers spewing dogma and influencing their herds alright. I watched it happen all year, in the Twitter machine and at other venues.

You know the perma-bearish or ‘got gold?’ types, issuing dire warnings and authoritative discussion of just how bad off the world is (well, it ain’t good, I grant them that). But it’s the practical reaction or lack thereof, not the news itself that matters.

Monday, January 04, 2021

The Stocks Bull Market is Only Half Completed / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Donald_W_Dony

After over 11 years of continuous advancement, the bull market is finally starting to show signs of its age.

Historically, secular bull markets tend to last about 18 years. This was the case for the prior three bull markets.

From 1919 to 1930 and from 1949 to 1970 and again from 1982 to 2000, the U.S. stock market unrelentingly rose despite fundamental and economical challenges.

The current bull market has also faced a number obstacles over the past 11 years. But similar to past secular bulls, shows no signs of altering its upward path.

Sunday, January 03, 2021

Stock Market Major Peak in Early April 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In the first part of this research article, we highlighted some of W.D. Gann’s research, particularly the theory of price vibrations, angles, slopes, and how they relate to future price projections/targets.  We also showed how important it was to understand what price does when it reaches these critical inflection points.  In this second part of our research, we are going to explore Gann time/price cycles and how they relate to our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs.

Our research will show you exactly why we believe an early April 2021 peak may be setting up in the US/global markets and why you need to prepare for this now.  We believe the remainder of the bullish price trend may continue to push higher, scaling very close to the CYAN trendline on the chart below over the next 60+ days before starting to break lower as we near the end of March 2021.  Let’s explore why we believe this is likely to happen.

We highlighted the importance of the CYAN trend line and the multiple Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs that are arcing through the recent price range in Part I.  It is our belief that these critical levels represent a major inflection point in the advance of price and that price may continue to attempt to push higher – but may align itself below the CYAN trendline as it inches closer to the early April Gann price/time arc that we believe will set up a major top in the markets.

Friday, January 01, 2021

Covid-19, SARS. Swine Flu. All 3 Were a Stock Market Screaming "Buy!" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: EWI

Let's take a moment to update you on the relationship between COVID-19 and emerging market stocks. Earlier this year, our publications at Elliott Wave International showed that infectious disease epidemics tend to occur toward the end of bear markets. We cited such examples as SARS, swine flu, and COVID-19, which spread toward the end of major declines in the MSEI Emerging Markets Index.

Friday, January 01, 2021

Stock Market 2021 Predictions for Another ‘Year Like No Other’ / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: John_Mauldin

By Robert Ross : Investors might have thought they'd seen it all in 2020. But the stock market action was merely a preview of what's to come in 2021.

Just to take a quick look back, the market gave everyone a scare in 2020 when it bottomed in March. But then the S&P 500 surged 67% between March 23 and year-end.

Certain stocks like Tesla (TSLA), Zoom (ZM) and Moderna (MRNA) performed even better, soaring by triple-digits.

Thursday, December 31, 2020

Stock Market Price Amplitude Arcs/Gann Suggest A Major Peak in Early April 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

W.D. Gann mastered price trends (angles/slope) and time in relation to predicting future price trends and peaks/troughs.  Over the years, my team and I have done some research related to W.D. Gann’s theories and have come to a simple understanding of some of these concepts.  In this article, we will review his primary theory that past price trends may help to predict future price peaks using angles/slopes and time factors.

Tuesday, December 29, 2020

Stock Market New All Time Highs Through the Prism of AI / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock markets are soaring on the back of vaccines that herald the end game to the Covid nightmare that as I speak is hitting new highs in the US and fast worsening second peaks across Europe. However, much as was for the March crash, the vaccines, covid-19 are all mere blips in the long-term trend trajectory that is being driven by AI and it's full spectrum application. For instance these are the key areas that I identified to focus upon some 5 years ago, though the number is always expanding as AI encroaches on every aspect of our lives which is why my focus is on core AI itself rather than derivatives of AI.

Monday, December 28, 2020

Stock Market Congestion Top Forming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009, and which could continue into the first quarter of 2021 before coming to an end.

SPX Intermediate trend:  New intermediate uptrend underway since 2234.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Sunday, December 27, 2020

Stock Market Trends Fortecast 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Last year, I published a ‘What To Expect In 2020’ article that everyone seemed to enjoy.  We published this article to help investors and traders prepare for what we believed was going to be an incredibly volatile 2020.  Last year our conclusions was:

“Be prepared for a surprising spike in volatility in early 2020 with a moderately strong potential for an early 2020 downside price rotation which prompts a new price trend and possibly an early test of support (near 280 on the SPY chart).  2020 is going to be a fantastic year for skilled traders – get ready for some incredible price action. “

Our proprietary Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system has been calling big and unusual market price trends many months in advance over the past 3+ years.  Some of the biggest trends the ADL predicted very accurately was the 2017~2018 rally in Gold and the 2019 collapse in Crude Oil. 

Friday, December 25, 2020

Stock Market Dow Quick Take / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My pre election forecast was for a relatively mild sideways trend into the end of the year awaiting a stream vaccine good news during January 2021.

Thursday, December 24, 2020

Seeing Stock Market New Highs Through the Prism of AI / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock markets are soaring on the back of vaccines that herald the end game to the Covid nightmare that as I speak is hitting new highs in the US and fast worsening second peaks across Europe. However, much as was for the March crash, the vaccines, covid-19 are all mere blips in the long-term trend trajectory that is being driven by AI and it's full spectrum application. For instance these are the key areas that I identified to focus upon some 5 years ago, though the number is always expanding as AI encroaches on every aspect of our lives which is why my focus is on core AI itself rather than derivatives of AI.