Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, December 10, 2020

US STOCK MARKET Custom Index Charts Show Clear Bullish Trending / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

My research team and I have created Custom Index charts that highlight the continued upside/bullish trend that is taking place in the US stock markets.  We continued to stay moderately cautious in late October and early November because of the extensive price rotation at that time and because of the US election event.  The dramatic rally in the US markets that started before the US elections prompted our research team to pause and evaluate how must risk was being ignored by the upside price rally.  Initially, we discounted the rally as a speculative move in the market – likely to end badly and quickly.

Now, after our Custom Index charts have established moderate momentum signals and what appears to be a very solid global market influx of capital into various US market sectors, we believe this rally may  still have some legs behind it.

Tuesday, December 08, 2020

Stock Market New Short-term Target / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first quarter of 2021 before coming to an end.

SPX Intermediate trend:  New intermediate uptrend underway since 2234.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Tuesday, December 08, 2020

Stock Market Is Terribly Stretched / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Avi_Gilburt

When the market rallies after bad news hits the wires regarding the vaccine, and when the market rallies after news of lower job growth, well, that is the hallmark of a bull market.

You see, during positive sentiment trends, the market rallies on good news, and the market rallies on bad news. In effect, the news is truly meaningless, as the general market sentiment is all that matters. And, if this has not become abundantly clear to you since the lows in March, then there is no hope for you. In fact, the market rallied 1400 S&P500 points and over 63% during the worst of the Covid news, and during a full country economic shut down. How much more evidence do you need to see that sentiment is the true driver of market price?

Tuesday, December 01, 2020

Stocks Bears Last Chance Before Market Rally To SPX 4200 In 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Avi_Gilburt

hen the market was crashing back in March, I distinctly remember how palatable the fear within the market was at the time. Many were even talking about how the market itself was about to “break.”

Yet, once we broke down below the 2400SPX region, and began to approach our long-time target of 2200SPX for that correction, I told the members of ElliottWaveTrader.net that I was now putting my cash back to work in the market. And, yes, many of them thought me to be crazy at the time, with those members now telling how much they had wished they had listened to me and followed my lead.

Sunday, November 29, 2020

Stock Market Short-term Decision Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.

SPX Intermediate trend:  New intermediate uptrend underway since 2234.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Saturday, November 28, 2020

Dow Stock Market Short-term and Long-term Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock markets recovery from the Chinese Coronavirus catastrophe has been spectacular. Remember the Dow traded down to a low of just 18,213 on 23rd of March 2020 and then over the next 6 months recovered to a high of 29,200, just 400 points shy of making a new all time high! That is a spectacular bull run!

Wednesday, November 25, 2020

Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

THE STOCK MARKET BIG PICTURE

The starting point for this analysis is to remind my Patrons of the BIG PICTURE, the general trend trajectory for AI stocks as illustrated by my following concluding graph from June 2020. (Machine Intelligence Quantum AI Stocks Mega-Trend Forecast 2020 to 2035!)

Wednesday, November 25, 2020

Financial Stocks Sector ETF Shows Unique Island Setup – What Next? / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks

By: Chris_Vermeulen

One would think the Financial Sector would be doing quite well related to the booming housing market and a decline in overall consumer debt and delinquency levels.  Historically, the XLF chart shows that $32 is very close to the 2007 peak levels before the collapse that started in late 2007.  Currently, the February 2020 highs represent a similar price peak level (near $32), and the current upside price trend has stalled near $27.50, which is a very strong resistance level.

Tuesday, November 24, 2020

Stock Market SEASONAL TREND and ELECTION CYCLE / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock market seasonal trend is usually for a weak October followed by strong November and December, which this year is being disrupted by the election. So where the election cycle is concerned the first few months of a new presidency tends to be subdued, following which the bull market settles in and continues it's business as usual. So we could be heading for a subdued 5 to 6 months.

Tuesday, November 24, 2020

I Dislike Shallow People And Shallow Market Pullbacks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Avi_Gilburt

Well, let’s start with the “shallow people.” And, within the context of markets, I am specifically referring to those with shallow and superficial perspectives about markets.

You see, the typical manner in which many view markets is that they see a market move, look to the news, and assume that the news of the day “caused” the market move that we see.

The reason that this is superficial is because we often see the market move in the exact opposite way one would have expected based upon the substance of the news event, leaving many scratching their heads. And, if you are honest with yourself, you know this has likely happened to you many times.

Monday, November 23, 2020

Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My commonsense interpretation of EWT resolves in a clear cut 5 wave advance into the Mid September peak with subsequent price action resolving in an ABC corrective decline.

Monday, November 23, 2020

Confidence Erodes in U.S. Institutions... Is the Dollar Next? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Confidence in American politics is now rarer than gold.

The U.S. election system, once sacrosanct, is losing the trust of half the country. Which half will depend on the outcome of Donald Trump’s efforts in the courts to demonstrate widespread fraud.

The political left is certain Joe Biden is the rightful winner. They dismiss Trump's legal team as hacks and are unconcerned with the sworn affidavits and other evidence of fraud brought forth in legal cases.

Sunday, November 22, 2020

Stock Market 2020 vs 2016 and 2012 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

How does 2020 compare to the last 2 presidential elections in terms of stock market trend.

Sunday, November 22, 2020

Stock Market Short-term Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.

SPX Intermediate trend:  New intermediate uptrend underway.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Saturday, November 21, 2020

Stock Market SPY/SPX Island Setups Warn Of A Potential Reversal In This Uptrend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

My researchers and I want to highlight a Weekly chart pattern that is warning of a potential Top/Reversal in the SPY & SPX.  Although the current trend is Bullish and the markets are looking forward to the new year, new policies, and probably new stimulus which normally prompts some type of upward price rally in the markets, we see an “Island Setup” that has continued to form after all the positive COVID-19 vaccine news.

An Island Setup in price is when price moves or Gaps away from a typical price range or boundaries, then stalls.  This type of setup is similar in structure to a Doji Star setup in an “Evening Star” formation.  Similarly, the Doji Star pattern also warns of a possible trend reversal.  Our researchers believe any continued failure to rally at this stage points to a very real downside price reversal setting up in the SPY/SPX. Let’s take a look at some Weekly charts.

Friday, November 20, 2020

Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market is having its first significant correction since the start of it's bull run following the corona crash into March 2020. Failure to hold support at 26,500 is eyeing a trend to next support at 25,000. Though MACD is oversold so implies limited downside. Of course price action is heavily influenced by election uncertainty.

Friday, November 20, 2020

Margin: How Stock Market Investors Are "Reaching for the Stars" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: EWI

"This is the highest ratio in the 20-year history of the data."

One of the historic ways that stock market investors exhibit conviction about the direction of prices is to use leverage or participate in the market with borrowed money. Yet another way of putting it is to "trade on margin."

Going all the way back to 1929, that was the downfall of many who viewed the market as a quick way to get rich.

Here's an Oct. 29, 1929 Boston Daily Globe headline:

Margin Account Dumping Brings Stock Crash ...

Yet, you can find examples in more recent history too

Thursday, November 19, 2020

THE STOCK MARKET BIG PICTURE - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The starting point for my stock market analysis is to remind all of the BIG PICTURE, the general trend trajectory for AI stocks as illustrated by my following concluding graph from June 2020. (Machine Intelligence Quantum AI Stocks Mega-Trend Forecast 2020 to 2035! )

Thursday, November 19, 2020

DJIA Short-term Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dow Short-term Analysis

The stock markets recovery from the Chinese Coronavirus catastrophe has been spectacular. Remember the Dow traded down to a low of just 18,213 on 23rd of March 2020 and then over the next 6 months recovered to a high of 29,200, just 400 points shy of making a new all time high! That is a spectacular bull run! So given that we have entered the weakest period of the year (October) AND that there is an election on the 3rd of November then the least surprising thing should be that the stock market has entered into the correction. In fact the only surprising thing is that the Dow did not start correcting earlier in the month, instead it even tried to break towards a new post crash high Mid October, which was a little puzzling at the time as it implied the market was discounting a Trump election victory that was invisible to most including me. Nevertheless it was ringing the alarm bells that Trump could even win, why else is the stock market soaring.

Wednesday, November 18, 2020

Dow Jones E-Mini Futures Tag 30k Twice – Setting Up Stock Market Double Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Sometimes the markets telegraph a key level or future target level in pre-market or post-market trading.  Other times these telegraphed price targets happen during regular trading hours.  Recently, the Dow Jones E-Mini Futures Contracts (YM) generated two unique high price levels near $30,000 over the span of about 6 trading days.

My research team and I believe this “telegraphed high price target level” is a warning of major resistance for traders.  These types of broad market patterns are not very common on charts.  They happen sometimes, but very rarely like this example on the YM chart below.  This Double Top (Tweezers) pattern may be warning that the $30,000 level on the YM could become a major market peak/turning point.  Additionally, the post election rally reached this $30,000 level on the day Pfizer announced the vaccine data, then sold off quite consistently throughout the regular trading session.