Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, December 22, 2020

Global Speculation Gone Amok - Stocks Buffett Indicator and Bitcoin / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger employs the Buffett Indicator and Bitcoin in his latest analysis of the precious metals markets.

"Gambling is a venture without calculation; speculation is a venture with calculation." — Dickson G. Watts

Being a self-professed speculator in the junior mining space for the past forty-odd years, I used to include that quote in every client letter and in every research piece as a means of reminding readers that the art of speculation involves weighing many different but converging data points. That quote was the brainchild of Dickson G. Watts, an exceedingly successful speculator from the late 1800s and former president of the New York Cotton Exchange, whose book "Speculation as a Fine Art and Thoughts on Life" is a must-read for anyone involved in the financial markets.

With today's credit markets trading on the razor's edge of leverage, never has there been a greater need for us to understand a number of critical realities: 1) that the credit markets are the ultimate arbiter of valuation and risk and stocks merely follow; and 2) that historical measurements used to carry predictive value have today been rendered ineffective due to central bank interventions.

Tuesday, December 22, 2020

Final Test For The Stock Market Before Year End / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Avi_Gilburt

For the almost decade that I have been writing publicly, I have implored you to recognize the importance of market sentiment in determining the direction and turning points in the market.

Yet, I still shake my head when I read articles, or even the comment section to my own articles, as most analysis and comments are so hyper-focused on what the news or other factors will do to the market. And, no matter how many times the market moves opposite to those expectations, the analyst or commenter seems to develop selective amnesia, as they continue on their merry way to yet again analyze the market based upon the same failed perspectives.

Thursday, December 17, 2020

End-of-Year Review: Your free issue of EWI’s Financial Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: EWI

Dear Reader,

For investors worldwide – including you, maybe -- the stock market rallies since March have been one of the biggest head-scratchers of a very head-scratching 2020.

Stocks rallied despite the raging pandemic; despite the shutdowns; despite skyrocketing unemployment and huge economic damage... despite, despite, despite.

Thursday, December 17, 2020

Stock Market Into 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Donald_W_Dony

Markets continue to show no signs of concern as new highs develop
in Q4 and bullish trends hold (Chart 1). The S&P 500 recently posted a new all-time high of 3588.11 and the TSX is retested an all-time high near 18,000.

Wednesday, December 16, 2020

Custom Index Charts Suggest US Stock Market Ready For A Pause / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Weeks after the Election Rally initiated a moderately strong upside breakout rally, our Custom Index charts suggest the US stock market may be ready for a brief pause in trending before any new trends continue. Global traders and investors jumped into the US stock market just days before the US elections expecting something big to take place.  The rally that initiated just days before the US election pushed our Custom Index charts well into the upper range of the 2016 to 2018 upward sloping price channel.  This suggests the US stock markets have ended the downward price reversion and are now attempting to extend into the upward price channel – attempting to resume the upward trending that started after the 2016 elections.

Tuesday, December 15, 2020

Markets Rallying on Vaccine Hopes, but Higher Taxes and Inflation Loom / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: MoneyMetals

For months, including this past week, markets have rallied on hopes for a vaccine and more stimulus – even as the real economy is suffering under expanding virus restrictions and as a stimulus deal keeps getting thwarted by partisans in Washington.

Negative divergences are showing up, with market momentum waning and volume thinning in the major averages.

Another threat markets seem to be overlooking – at least for now – is that of tax hikes under an incoming Joe Biden administration.

More on that in a moment. But first, let’s review this week’s price moves in metals markets.

Tuesday, December 15, 2020

February 2020 COVID Breakdown Gap Acting As Support For Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The difference in the price setup of the initial February COVID-19 downside price gap on the INDU (Dow Jones Industrial Average) vs. the SPY (SPDR S&P500 ETF) clearly shows how this previous gap in price is acting as a critical support level for the current price rally.  When the downside price gap first started, near February 25th, 2020, technical traders immediately identified this “impulse gap” as an important price structure to watch in the future.  As the US stock markets recovered in late August/September, price levels began to attempt to “fill the gap” on the INDU chart.  On the SPY chart in August/September, prices filled the gap then rallied to new highs – initiating a new upside price rally attempt.

My team and I believe these gap levels on the INDU and SPY currently represent a critical horizontal support level for both the INDU and the SPY.  This gap range is now acting like a “hard floor” in price that should be watched by all traders. We will examine these setups on the charts below.

Monday, December 14, 2020

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into January 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock markets recovery from the Chinese Coronavirus catastrophe has been spectacular. Remember the Dow traded down to a low of just 18,213 on 23rd of March 2020 and then over the next 8 months recovered to a new all time high north of Dow 30,000!

This is the final part of a series of in-depth analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the stock market into January 2021.

Monday, December 14, 2020

A Fresh Perspective on Why Stock Market Continues to Defy News / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: EWI

Why a "disappointing" jobs report did not send stock prices lower

Many market observers assume that the news is the main factor in governing the stock market's trend.

Yet, Elliott Wave International has shown time and again that there's simply no evidence to support this widespread assumption.

Monday, December 14, 2020

Stock Market Minor Correction Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009, and which could continue into the first quarter of 2021 before coming to an end.

SPX Intermediate trend:  New intermediate uptrend underway since 2234.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Sunday, December 13, 2020

Copper & Bonds Telegraphed the 2020 COVID Stock Market Collapse / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

A very interesting setup in both Copper and Bonds seemed to have telegraphed the collapse in the US stock market in early 2020.  T-Bonds, which had been consolidating into a downward price channel prior to the COVID outbreak, suddenly broke through the downward price channel and started to accelerate higher. Copper, which is a fairly common commodity for building, infrastructure, and other uses, had been moving higher above a clear upward price channel, then suddenly broke lower in early 2020.  Both Bond and Copper seemed to break these price channels nearly 20+ days before the US stock markets initiated their price decline on February 24, 2020.

My research team and I believe this setup is not inconsequential for technical traders. The breakdown in Copper represents a core “demand” failure, while the breakout in Bonds suggests risks are elevating. This is something we should continue to watch for in the future as Copper and Bond prices typically move before the US stock market begins to react.

Sunday, December 13, 2020

Yes, "Active Stock Investment Managers" DO Behave Like the "Crowd" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: EWI

...and that's not a good thing

When people hear the phrase "investing crowd," they tend to think of Main Street investors. Usually dipping their toe in the water after the trend has been underway for quite some time, they are typically seen as the "more cautious" types than Wall Street pros.

Of course, there is a flip side to that "cautiousness": The "investing crowd" is known for panic-selling near market bottoms and going "all in" near major market tops.

What's more, Main Street investors are not alone in their "crowd" behavior. It actually permeates most of the investment world, including the professionals.

Thursday, December 10, 2020

US STOCK MARKET Custom Index Charts Show Clear Bullish Trending / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

My research team and I have created Custom Index charts that highlight the continued upside/bullish trend that is taking place in the US stock markets.  We continued to stay moderately cautious in late October and early November because of the extensive price rotation at that time and because of the US election event.  The dramatic rally in the US markets that started before the US elections prompted our research team to pause and evaluate how must risk was being ignored by the upside price rally.  Initially, we discounted the rally as a speculative move in the market – likely to end badly and quickly.

Now, after our Custom Index charts have established moderate momentum signals and what appears to be a very solid global market influx of capital into various US market sectors, we believe this rally may  still have some legs behind it.

Tuesday, December 08, 2020

Stock Market New Short-term Target / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first quarter of 2021 before coming to an end.

SPX Intermediate trend:  New intermediate uptrend underway since 2234.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Tuesday, December 08, 2020

Stock Market Is Terribly Stretched / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Avi_Gilburt

When the market rallies after bad news hits the wires regarding the vaccine, and when the market rallies after news of lower job growth, well, that is the hallmark of a bull market.

You see, during positive sentiment trends, the market rallies on good news, and the market rallies on bad news. In effect, the news is truly meaningless, as the general market sentiment is all that matters. And, if this has not become abundantly clear to you since the lows in March, then there is no hope for you. In fact, the market rallied 1400 S&P500 points and over 63% during the worst of the Covid news, and during a full country economic shut down. How much more evidence do you need to see that sentiment is the true driver of market price?

Tuesday, December 01, 2020

Stocks Bears Last Chance Before Market Rally To SPX 4200 In 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Avi_Gilburt

hen the market was crashing back in March, I distinctly remember how palatable the fear within the market was at the time. Many were even talking about how the market itself was about to “break.”

Yet, once we broke down below the 2400SPX region, and began to approach our long-time target of 2200SPX for that correction, I told the members of ElliottWaveTrader.net that I was now putting my cash back to work in the market. And, yes, many of them thought me to be crazy at the time, with those members now telling how much they had wished they had listened to me and followed my lead.

Sunday, November 29, 2020

Stock Market Short-term Decision Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.

SPX Intermediate trend:  New intermediate uptrend underway since 2234.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Saturday, November 28, 2020

Dow Stock Market Short-term and Long-term Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock markets recovery from the Chinese Coronavirus catastrophe has been spectacular. Remember the Dow traded down to a low of just 18,213 on 23rd of March 2020 and then over the next 6 months recovered to a high of 29,200, just 400 points shy of making a new all time high! That is a spectacular bull run!

Wednesday, November 25, 2020

Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

THE STOCK MARKET BIG PICTURE

The starting point for this analysis is to remind my Patrons of the BIG PICTURE, the general trend trajectory for AI stocks as illustrated by my following concluding graph from June 2020. (Machine Intelligence Quantum AI Stocks Mega-Trend Forecast 2020 to 2035!)

Wednesday, November 25, 2020

Financial Stocks Sector ETF Shows Unique Island Setup – What Next? / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks

By: Chris_Vermeulen

One would think the Financial Sector would be doing quite well related to the booming housing market and a decline in overall consumer debt and delinquency levels.  Historically, the XLF chart shows that $32 is very close to the 2007 peak levels before the collapse that started in late 2007.  Currently, the February 2020 highs represent a similar price peak level (near $32), and the current upside price trend has stalled near $27.50, which is a very strong resistance level.