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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

2018-2019 Pop Goes The Debt Bubble / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

Fiat paper money: Once gold and silver derivatives
Today, instruments of debt issued by central banks

After the 2008 financial crisis, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke invoked Milton Friedman’s theory that a helicopter drop of money could prevent a collapsing credit bubble from becoming a Great Depression.

When credit bubbles burst, defaulting debt and disappearing demand cause the velocity of money to plunge; and, in 2008, Bernanke resorted to Friedman’s untested theory hoping to prevent the US economy from collapsing as it did in the 1930s.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

Are Global Stock Markets About To Rally 10 Percent? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Technical Traders Ltd. is issuing new analysis which indicates the US and global markets may be poised for a dramatic upside price swing over the next couple.  Recent events have driven asset class values to new valuations that may change the dynamics of markets for a few months.  Prior to August/September 2018, many traders were fearful of the expectations of the US Federal Reserve, Global Trade Issues and the US Elections. Combine this with the end of the year liquidity issues and the threat of a US government shutdown over the wall funding and we have almost a perfect storm brewing for uncertainty and fear.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, January 14, 2019

S&P 500 Bounces Off 2,600, Downward Reversal? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Stocks were little changed on Friday, as investors hesitated following the recent rally. The broad stock market has retraced its recent decline following the S&P 500's breakdown below 2,600. Will the short-term uptrend continue? Or is this still just an upward correction before another leg lower?

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.2% and 0.0% on Friday, as investors hesitated following the recent advance. The broad stock market has retraced its recent decline following the S&P 500's breakdown below 2,600. It continued its recent rebound off the December the 26th medium-term low of 2,346.58 recently. The index traded 20.2% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91 on that day. Then the market rallied and retraced some of the downtrend. It got very close to 2,600 mark again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was unchanged and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.2% on Friday.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, January 14, 2019

Is the Stock Market Recovery Rally Nearing Exhaustion? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: Mike_Paulenoff

My article last week, "Tale of the S&P 500 Tailwind," came on the heels of the Emini S&P 500 (ES)'s rally of 100.75 points (4.1%) off the 2019 low and 53.25 points (+2.1%) above the Christmas week close. On its face, the advance was impressive, but recall that I qualified my enthusiasm, stating the following:

"In the aftermath of the Christmas Upside Reversal, last week ES (e-Mini March S&P) traversed a range from 2438.50 to 2539.25... and ALL OF IT occurred on Friday (1/04/19) after Jay Powell acquiesced to the wounded easy money masses, appearing to become a kinder, gentler, and more investor-sensitive Fed Chairman."

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 13, 2019

Stock Market Looking Toppy! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Correcting within the very long-term bull market trend.

Intermediate trend – A bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 13, 2019

Liquidity, Money Supply, and Insolvency / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2019

By: Andy_Sutton

Liquidity is becoming of central importance once again. It is frequently mentioned in mainstream media articles, interviews, and ‘educational’ programs.  It was a central point of discussion during the financial market blowout in 2008.

The killing off of a little-known (until it was dead!) data series earlier this year by the not-so-USFed has gotten the beehive buzzing once again about a liquidity crisis – or the possible aversion of one in the short term. It has also gotten things buzzing about the longer term as well.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 12, 2019

Devastating Investment Losses Are Coming: What Is Your Advisor Doing About It? / Stock-Markets / Investing 2019

By: Nick_Barisheff

I hold financial professionals who recommend monetary gold to their clients in the highest esteem. It is their sage advice that will protect investors from the unprecedented dangers they face today in the markets. However, many advisors are no longer permitted to recommend physical gold or precious metals in client portfolios as a result of the new rules defining risk in mutual funds. Many clients who had been holding gold for years were forced to reduce their positions last year by their investment advisor’s dealer. The timing for this couldn’t have been worse, as the resulting rise in their gold holdings would have reduced the losses in their portfolios from the market carnage we have witnessed since late September.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, January 11, 2019

Yield curve suggests that US Recession is near: Trading Setups / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: FXCOT

Investors think recession risk is quite high. This, though, raises another question: Since investors have access to the same news and data as the Fed, how can they know the economy better than the Fed? Economist Jesse Edgerton of J.P. Morgan has found that economic data has a better record of predicting recession than the yield curve and right now, the data sees lower odds than the yield curve. Short-term interest rates are set by the Federal Reserve, and long-term rates by bond market investors. The curve has been flattening for the past two years as the Fed has slowly raised short-term rates in hopes of a “soft landing,” a slowing in growth that keeps both unemployment and inflation low and stable. But in recent months the flattening has been driven by falling bond yields. The usual interpretation: Investors in their collective wisdom think the Fed is overdoing it with rate increases and could shove the economy into recession, in which case short-term rates will be lower in a few years than they are now.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 10, 2019

What’s Next for the US Dollar, Gold, Stocks & Bonds? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Axel_Merk

The quip, “if you aren’t confused, you aren’t paying attention” needs to be replaced: “with the Fed confused, you better pay attention.”  You may want to buckle up. Let me explain.

It all starts with the Fed... In assessing our crystal ball for 2019, the starting point is the Federal Reserve (Fed) because they provide an anchor for the price of risk-free assets (Treasuries) around which risk assets are priced.1 When rates were near zero and the Fed purchased Treasuries, it wasn’t only Treasury yields that were depressed, but the Fed pulled down yields of risk assets as well. Differently said, the Fed made it appear as if risky assets were less risky; this didn’t only affect bonds, but also equities that enjoyed years of rising prices on the backdrop of low volatility. This was the era of compressed risk premia.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 10, 2019

Gold, Stocks and the Flattening Yield Curve / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

The 3 Amigos were a blogger’s way of not boring himself to death while fleshing out important macro indicators month after month.

Amigo #1 (SPX/Gold ratio) got home and dropped from target. What’s more, it has taken back the ratio’s equivalent of the entire Trump rally and that is an eventuality we are very open to on nominal SPX as well.

The gaps are interesting and among several possibilities for 2019 we could see fear, loathing and a fill of the lower gap (a greed gap of sorts) prior to a filling of the upper gap, which could blow out the stock bull in manic fashion one day. Relax, it’s just one of several possible road maps. For now, we simply state that SPX/Gold reached a very viable target and dutifully dropped with the market stress.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 09, 2019

Warning: This Stock Market Rig is Going to End Terribly / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

This is getting old.

The PPT is now juicing Oil higher, because doing so relieves stress in the junk bond market (a large percentage of junk bond issuers are shale companies that require higher Oil prices to be profitable).

This, in turn, is sending a “all clear” signal to stocks, inducing algos to buy indiscriminately.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 08, 2019

An Investment Lesson from Puerto Rico / Stock-Markets / Investing 2019

By: Rodney_Johnson

It takes two and a half hours to fly from Miami to San Juan, Puerto Rico, but the island might as well be on the other side of the planet.

Even though it’s a U.S. territory and it’s a shorter flight from Miami to San Juan than to L.A. or even Washington, the place is the epitome of out-of-sight, out-of-mind.

When’s the last time you considered the tough conditions on the island?

Hurricane Maria flattened the place more than a year ago, and quickened the pace of migration from the island to Florida, leaving behind the vulnerable population.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 08, 2019

Wall Street Drools over Fishy Jobs Report / Stock-Markets / Economic Statistics

By: MoneyMetals

The Bureau of Labor Statistics delivered a blowout jobs report on Friday. Headline chasing algorithms and investors responded by snapping up stocks. They also sold some gold and silver futures, driving prices lower on the day.

To Wall Street cheerleaders, it looked like the stock market correction might be over and precious metals would be headed out of fashion, once again.

It looked like something else to anyone who read past the headlines. What a Potemkin Village the markets have become!

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 08, 2019

How to Spot A Tradable Stock Market Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

If you are a long-term investor, swing trader, or day trader, then you could find one or all of the charts below interesting. What I am going to briefly cover and show you could make you think twice about how you are investing and trading your money.

I will be the first to admit you should not, and cannot, always pick market tops or bottoms, but there are certain times when it’s worth betting on one.

Below I have shared three charts, each with a different time frame using daily, 30 minutes, and a 10-minute chart. Each chart also has a different technical analysis technique and strategy applied.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 08, 2019

Breadth is Very Strong While Stocks are Surging. What’s Next for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

As the S&P 500 makes a sharp upwards reversal towards its 38.2% fibonacci retracement, the U.S. stock market’s breadth is surging and risk-off assets (USD) are falling.

This combination of extremely strong breadth and a decline in risk-off assets often leads to short term weakness before a bigger medium term rally, but sometimes was a part of V-shaped recoveries. Moral of the story: focus on the medium term instead of the short term. Although V-shaped recoveries are unlikely, there are not impossible.

Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook.

Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable medium term direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, January 07, 2019

Market Predictions for 2019 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Michael_Pento

Bond Yields Continue to Fall in First Half of Year

The epoch bond bubble continues to build and become a dagger over the worldwide economy and markets. Wall Street Shills are fond of claiming that global bond yields remain at historically low levels due to central bank manipulations, but this argument is no longer tenable. It was once true, but QE on a net global basis has now gone negative. And the data shows the amount of U.S. publicly traded debt relative to GDP is much greater today than it was prior to the start of the Great Recession—even after adjusted for the size of the Fed’s balance sheet--in other words, taking into account all the debt the Fed has purchased and is still rolling over.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, January 07, 2019

Stocks Rallied Again, Still Just an Upward Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks rallied on Friday following better-than-expected monthly jobs data release. Will the uptrend continue? Or is this just a quick upward correction before another leg lower?

The U.S. stock market indexes gained 3.3-4.3% on Friday, as investors reacted to better-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls number release. The S&P 500 index extended its recent rebound off the December the 26th medium-term low of 2,346.58. It traded 20.2% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91 on that day. Then the market rallied and retraced some of the downtrend. It got back above 2,500 mark on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.3% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 4.3%.

The nearest important level of resistance of the S&P 500 index is now at 2,530-2,550, marked by some previous fluctuations. The resistance level is also at 2,570-2,600. On the other hand, the level of support is at 2,500, and the next support level remains at 2,450-2,475, marked by some recent local lows.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 06, 2019

Stock Market Counter-trend Still on Track / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

SPX: Long-term trend – Correcting within the very long-term bull market trend.

Intermediate trend – A bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 06, 2019

Market Volatility Skyrocketing, Trump & Pelosi Spar / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets are off to a strong start in 2019. Gold and silver both closed Thursday at multi-month highs as the stock market reversed sharply to the downside.

Investors were disappointed by manufacturing data showing a slowdown in industrial output. They dumped economically sensitive stocks and bid the U.S. dollar lower on foreign currency exchanges. Markets now expect the Federal Reserve to pause its rate hiking campaign and possibly even begin cutting rates later this year.

The weaker dollar helped boost crude oil and precious metals prices. The energy and mining sectors are among the only gainers in the stock market. The HUI gold miners index closed at a 5-month high on Thursday.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, January 04, 2019

The Last Time the Yield Curve Inverted, Stocks Soared 30%! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: John_Mauldin

Everybody is suddenly talking about the inverted yield curve.

They’re right to do so, too, but alarm bells may be premature. Inversion is a historically reliable but early recession indicator. Even a fully inverted yield curve—which is not yet—isn’t saying recession is imminent.

What we see now is really more of a flattened yield curve. It has a smaller but still positive spread between short-term and long-term interest rates.

That’s not normal, but it’s also not a recession guarantee. However, when we combine this with other threats, it adds to the concerns.
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