Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
BREWING FINANCIAL CRISIS 2.0 Suggests RECESSION 2022 - 28th Jan 22
Financial Stocks Sector ETF XLF $37.50 Continues To Present Opportunities - 28th Jan 22
Stock Market Rushing Headlong - 28th Jan 22
The right way to play Climate Change Investing (not green energy stocks) - 28th Jan 22
Why Most Investors LOST Money by Investing in ARK FUNDS - 27th Jan 22
The “play-to-earn” trend taking the crypto world by storm - 27th Jan 22
Quantum AI Stocks Investing Priority - 26th Jan 22
Is Everyone Going To Be Right About This Stocks Bear Market?- 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Glass Half Empty or Half Full? - 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Quoted As Saying 'The Reports Of My Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated' - 26th Jan 22
The Synthetic Dividend Option To Generate Profits - 26th Jan 22
The Beginner's Guide to Credit Repair - 26th Jan 22
AI Tech Stocks State Going into the CRASH and Capitalising on the Metaverse - 25th Jan 22
Stock Market Relief Rally, Maybe? - 25th Jan 22
Why Gold’s Latest Rally Is Nothing to Get Excited About - 25th Jan 22
Gold Slides and Rebounds in 2022 - 25th Jan 22
Gold; a stellar picture - 25th Jan 22
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Is More Stock Market Correction Needed?

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021 Feb 24, 2021 - 05:46 PM GMT

By: Andre_Gratian


Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before coming to an end.

SPX Intermediate trend:  May continue until SPX reaches ~4050-4150 (March 2021).

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 2-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at

Is More Correction Needed? 

Cycles:  Looking ahead!  90-yr cycle – last low: 1932. Next low: ~2022.  (inversion likely)

7-yr cycle – last low: 2016.  Next low: 2023

Market Analysis (Charts courtesy of QCharts

The answer to the above question is probably ‘yes’ before we start on the final move toward an intermediate high. 

Last week, IWW and SPX both pulled back, found support, and rallied.  Still no advance warning of an intermediate top.  The minor correction was anticipated and was the headline of the last letter.  Is it already over?  Probably not!  We should find out early next week.

SPX daily chart

Last week, SPX showed some negative divergence in the CCI.  This was a warning that a correction was about to take place.  The prospect was that the index would come out of the blue channel representing the short-term trend since the 3694 low.  It did on Thursday, rallied to the broken trend line on Friday, and started back down. 

The initial decline stopped at the low of the previous support as well as on a mid-channel line.  This created a red neckline which may be tested again early next week.  If it does not hold, the correction should continue down to about 3830 which would represent a 50% retracement of the previous rally, and where there is good support from a previous short-term peak.  This level is also confirmed by P&F distribution to the right of the 3950 high.  If you look at the chart below, you will see that ~3830 is the area where there is a junction of two other trend lines.  This makes it a good candidate for the low of this correction. 

But first, SPX will have to break the second black trend line shown on the chart.  Also, if 3830 is exceeded, the decline could continue down to the blue 50-dma (~3778) which is also the bottom of the rising channel. 

SPX hourly chart

SPX made a new all-time high and started to retrace.  There are several valid support and resistance lines drawn on the chart which, as you can see, are all capable of stopping the price action either up or down.  After the decline found initial support at a previous low, the index rallied but failed to first surpass the top red resistance line, and then the top red channel line -- which held for four hours on Friday and finally repelled prices into the close – so we can pretty much conclude that the correction is not complete.  But this will have to be proven with, first a break below the black trend line, and then the red horizontal support line which held last Thursday. 

There are other trend and support lines drawn lower which could indicate where the correction will end.  My preference, which is expressed in the daily chart analysis, is in the vicinity of 3830 which combines a 50% retracement, a P&F count and support levels.  Should we go beyond, adjustments to the analysis will be provided in the daily updates.

Another possibility is that the index will find support at least temporarily on the magenta trend line.  We will know better early next week.

The oscillators are indecisive.

  • UUP (dollar ETF) WKLY ($USD chart is not available from this data provider)
  • It looks as if UUP is being repelled by its intermediate red channel line and that it will have to do some additional basing before it can go through it. 
  • GDX (gold miners)-DLY
  • GDX is in the vicinity of an important cycle low which should end its consolidation.  I had expected this low to come last week, but this week is good enough.  There could be one final small climactic spike down, but it is not necessary and, if that should occur, there is important support directly below which should limit any further weakness.
  • PAAS (Pan American Silver Corp-DLY)
  • PAAS is subject to the same cycles as GDX, so I could also have a final minor retracement before reversing; but it is stronger than GDX and already well off its lows.
  • BNO (Brent oil fund) wkly.
  • BNO has reached its 16.00 projection target and should now consolidate, perhaps after distributing in this area for a little while longer. 
At the end of last week SPX started a minor pullback which may not be complete and could take prices down to 2830 (ideally) and even lower.


Free trial subscription

With a trial subscription, you will have access to the same information that is given to paid subscribers, but for a limited time-period.   Over the years, I have developed an expertise in P&F charting (price projection), cycles (timing), EWT (structure), and general technical analysis which enables me to warn subscribers of pending reversals in market trends and how far that trend can potentially carry.  For a FREE 2-week trial, subscription options and payment plans, I encourage you to visit my website at

Disclaimer - The above comments about the financial markets are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles uncompromised by fundamental considerations. They represent my own opinion and are not meant to be construed as trading or investment advice, but are offered as an analytical point of view which might be of interest to those who follow stock market cycles and technical analysis.

Andre Gratian Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in