Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Saturday, March 13, 2021

Dow Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My commonsense interpretation of EWT continues to resolve in accurate outcomes as the chart of my last analysis implied to expect a strong 5 wave impulse advance into 2021 that has come to pass.

Thursday, March 11, 2021

Dow Stock Market Long-term Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Dow has broken out to new all time highs above 29,600 which successfully held as support during the January correction.

Thursday, March 11, 2021

Stock Market Pullback that’s largely driven by Tech and Growth Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Troy_Bombardia

Last week saw a wide divergence in the stock market. Sectors that exploded higher after March 2020 (e.g. tech, IPOs, growth stocks) saw sharp drawdowns while sectors that lagged significantly (e.g. energy & finance) are catching up. In this Market Report I will highlight a few indicators that matter right now. But more importantly, I’ll discuss how we’re investing & trading in this environment because at the end of the day, the only thing that matters is how you’re positioned. Everything else is just noise.

Thursday, March 11, 2021

Yet Another Bubble And Stock Market Crash Article / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

If I see another article calling this market a bubble, or that the crash is coming, or claiming that “the party is over,” I am seriously going to scream. But, I guess we should thank all these article writers as they are adding bricks to the wall of worry that we will climb in 2021.

I mean, have you ever seen a crash when everyone, and their mother, grandmother, uncle, aunt, and aunt’s cat knew it was coming? In fact, I got calls from many of my relatives asking me whether they should get out of the market since all they are hearing is that we are going to get a repeat of the March 2020 crash.

As an individual investor, you are undoubtedly bombarded by information throughout the internet. While some of it is bullish and most are normally bearish (as bearishness seems to sell better), it is quite a challenge to be able to distinguish the wheat from the chaff. Unfortunately, the great majority of the information resides within the chaff, and often causes investors to focus upon their fear more so than profitable information.

Tuesday, March 09, 2021

This Isn’t Your Father’s Overvalued Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: John_Mauldin

Many analysts contend that current stock valuations resemble the dot-com era. You can see it visually at CurrentMarketValuation.com. Some highlights…

The classic “Buffett Indicator” certainly seems to be in nosebleed territory. Notice that the valuations in 1966, the beginning of a long-term bear market, were also high.

Tuesday, March 09, 2021

Stock Market Great ADP Figures But Things Can Still Turn Nasty / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Submissions

Powell gave a wait-and-see answer to my yesterday‘s rhetorical question about the bears just starting out, indeed. The S&P 500 plunged, breaking far outside the Bollinger Bands confines, illustrating the extraordinary nature of the move. Rebound would be perfectly natural here (and we‘re getting one as we speak) – but will it be more than a dead cat bounce?

Stocks partially recovered from last Friday‘s intraday plunge, and good news about the stimulus clearing House followed after the market close – stock bulls took the opportunity, and Monday‘s session gave signs that the worst is over. Tuesday‘s move partially negated that, but even after Wednesday, the short-term case was undecided (even as tech kept acting relatively weak).

Yesterday‘s session though gives the short-term advantage to the bears, and that‘s because of the weak  performance I see in other stock market indices and bonds. The Russell 2000 got under pressure, negating what by yesterday still looked like a shallow correction there. So did the emerging markets and their bonds. More downside can materialize either suddenly or slowly over the coming say 1-2 weeks. It depends on the tech and its heavyweight names, where these find support.

Tuesday, March 09, 2021

U.S. Stocks: Here's a Big Sign That "Sentiment Cannot Get Much More Extreme" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: EWI

The stock exposure of the most bearish active investment managers is revealing

Relatively few investors want to bet against the stock market rally.

As a Feb. 18 financial article says (CNBC):

Short interest in the market has fallen to near-record lows.

Indeed, bullish sentiment is so extreme that even the most bearish among a group of professionals are behaving bullishly.

Monday, March 08, 2021

The AI Stocks Megatrend Big Picture / Stock-Markets / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock markets are soaring on the back of vaccines that herald the end game to the Covid nightmare. However the vaccines, covid-19 are all mere blips in the long-term trend trajectory that is being driven by AI and it's full spectrum application. For instance these are the key areas that I identified to focus upon over 5 years ago, though the number is always increasing as AI encroaches into every aspect of our lives which is why my focus primarily on core AI stocks rather than applications of AI.

Monday, March 08, 2021

The Future of FINRA, Regulatory Defense and Bad Stockbrokers / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Steve_Barker

FINRA stands for the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. This tends to be the first line of defense against a bad experience with a securities broker, and it also has many other benefits. FINRA is an independent nongovernmental organization that focuses on the root of problems, securities sold to investors, and selling them to investors. It is the single largest independent regulatory body for securities firms operating in the United States. It writes and enforces the rules governing broker-dealer and registered brokers firms in the United States.

Monday, March 08, 2021

It is Time for Stock Market Investor Caution? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before coming to an end.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX is not likely to end its intermediate trend until it reaches about 4150.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Sunday, March 07, 2021

US Treasury Yields Rally May Trigger Stock Market Crazy Ivan Event / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In the first part of this research series, published yesterday, we explored the rising Yields and how my team and I expect markets to react to the new level of fear that may begin to enter the global credit markets.  Rising Yields suggest investors believe the future risks to the global economy don’t support lower Yield rates.  The talk that investors expect a super-heated global economy may have some truth to it, but we feel the rise in Yields is related more to global credit risks than any type of super-heated global economy.

Today we will explore the potential for a Crazy Ivan event in the global markets. This would be represented as a price revaluation event, causing the global markets to suddenly attempt to revalue price levels based on new levels of fear and more data. 

Saturday, March 06, 2021

Dow Short-term Stock Market Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market has fully recovered from the Chinese Coronavirus catastrophe. Remember the Dow traded down to a low of just 18,213 on 23rd of March 2020 and then over the next 10 months recovered to trade at a series of new all time highs into 2021, all whilst the virus has continued to rage on, delivering the US and UK WORSE second peaks in terms of infections and deaths.

Friday, March 05, 2021

FED Balance Sheet Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Not to forget the inflation mega-trend courtesy of rampant central bank money printing to monetize government debt coupled with the fake inflation indices. So you really think US inflation is just 1%? it's more like 6%! Anyway the money printing binge now totals $7.4 trillion, up from $4 trillion at the start of 2020.

Friday, March 05, 2021

US Treasury Yields Rally May Trigger A Crazy Ivan Event (Again) In Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Since shortly after the US November elections, my research team and I have been clear about our research and our belief that the bullish rally in the markets would continue to drive the strongest sectors higher and higher.  In December 2020, we shared an article suggesting our proprietary Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs and GANN theory indicated a major price peak could set up in early April 2021.  On February 3, 2021, we also published an early warning that Treasure Yields were set up to prompt a big topping pattern sometime over the next 6+ months .  We followed that up with a February 21, 2021 article suggesting future Gold and Silver price trends may be tied to the moves in Treasury Yields and the resulting stock market trends.

Now that the Treasury Yields have completed what we suggested would be required to start a “revaluation event” in the stock market, we believe that a “Crazy Ivan” event may soon setup in the global markets.  Many months back (August 28, 2019), we published an article about precious metals were about to pull a Crazy Ivan price event (https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/precious-metals-crazy-ivan-followup/). This prediction came true in 2020 and 2021.  Now, we are suggesting the global markets may pull a new type of Crazy Ivan event – a price revaluation event prompted by the rise in Treasury Yields.

Thursday, March 04, 2021

Stocks, Gold – Rebound or Dead Cat Bounce? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Submissions

None of Friday‘s intraday attempts to recapture 3,850 stuck, and the last hour‘s selling pressure is an ill omen. Especially since it was accompanied by high yield corporate bondsh weakening. It‘s as if the markets only now noticed the surging long-end Treasury yields, declining steeply on Thursday as the 10y Treasury yield made it through 1.50% before retreating. And on Friday, stocks didn‘t trust the intraday reversal higher in 20+ year Treasuries either.

Instead, the options traders took the put/call ratio to levels unseen since early Nov. The VIX however doesn‘t reflect the nervousness, having remained near Thursday‘s closing values. Its long lower knot looks encouraging, and the coming few days would decide the shape of this correction which I have not called shallow since Wed‘s suspicious tech upswing. Here we are, the tech has pulled the 500-strong index down, and remains perched in a precarious position. Could have rebounded, didn‘t – instead showing that its risk-on (high beta) segments such as semiconductors, are ready to do well regardless.

That‘s the same about any high beta sector or stock such as financials – these tend to do well in rising rates environments. Regardless of any coming stabilization / retreat in long-term Treasury yields, it‘s my view that we‘re going to have to get used to rising spreads such as 2y over 10y as the long end still steepens. The markets and especially commodities aren‘t buying Fed‘s nonchalant attitude towards inflation. Stocks have felt the tremors, and will keep rising regardless, as it has been historically much higher rates that have caused serious issues (think 4% in 10y Treasuries).

Wednesday, March 03, 2021

Stock Market Bull Trend in Jeopardy / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Troy_Bombardia

What a week it has been! Various markets saw noticeable declines on news of rising yields. The strong upward trend for stocks is finally taking a long-overdue breather and so is extreme sentiment.

Let’s look at some bullish and bearish factors to give us a better idea of what the markets are doing.

Friday, February 26, 2021

Congress May Increase The Moral Hazard Building In The Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the moral hazard being created by the Pavlovian buy-the-dip perspective in the market. As I expect the market to top out in the next few years and enter into a prolonged bear market, the nature of the market rallies over the last 10 years have thoroughly trained investors that all you have to do is buy-the-dip, as the market always comes back.

In fact, this past week, I saw these two comments in my articles, which only reinforces my perspective:

“I love a good press on an author from a paid subscriber but I’ve been making money hand over fist by trading and pouncing on pullbacks on a few stocks I closely watch. You have to have the time and you have to know the stocks well. Making much more money this way than I ever was buying/holding/speculating.”

Thursday, February 25, 2021

The Everything Stock Market Rally Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Troy_Bombardia

The market’s strong uptrend remains intact despite some lingering concerns about high valuations, extreme sentiment, and other overbought signals. Investors continue to pour into all markets (stocks, commodities, crypto etc.) with ever increasing liquidity.

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

Is More Stock Market Correction Needed? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before coming to an end.

SPX Intermediate trend:  May continue until SPX reaches ~4050-4150 (March 2021).

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

How to Protect Your Positions From A Stock Market Sell-Off Using Options / Stock-Markets / Options & Warrants

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Today we are going to explore how you can use options to hedge against a sudden market reversal. As you know I am going to be launching a new options service with an options specialist, Neil Szczepanski, shortly so you should start seeing more and more research on options from us.

The first question we need to answer is will there be a market sell-off?  If we first look at the S&P chart below, we can see that we have had an incredible run.  In order to determine if this trend is weakening, we need to look at what is happening with key sectors and sector rotation.  Since the beginning of 2021, we have seen a rotation into commodity sectors which is typical of a late-cycle surge.  This might give us a hint that higher volatility projections might be realized.