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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Tuesday, September 11, 2018

Index Put/Call Ratio spiked. What this Means for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The CBOE’s Index Put/Call Ratio spiked yesterday to 1.78

The Index Put/Call Ratio (CPCI) is different from the Equity Put/Call Ratio (CPCE). The Index Put/Call Ratio measures index options as opposed to equity options. For a more detailed explanation, go to Stockcharts.

The stock market made a short-medium term rally the last 2 times the Index Put/Call Ratio spiked to at least 1.77

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, September 11, 2018

Stock Market Trend Forecast Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It's now nearly 2 months since I published my stock market trend forecast for the whole of the remainder of 2018 on the 21st of July 2018 which was first made available to Patrons who support my work. So to get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for as little as just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, September 11, 2018

Transportation Index Leads Stock Market Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The recent upside breakout seen in the US Transportation Index is a very important signal for traders.  Our research team has been following these moves for many months and we believe the recent upside breakout in the $TRAN is a strong sign of future US Equities price moves and all traders should be paying very close attention.

The Transportation Index typically leads the US Equities markets by about 3 to 6 months.  Transportation is one of the core elements of economic activity.  Items entering the US or distributed throughout the US must rely on transportation to ship/deliver these goods to resellers, wholesalers, and ports.  When the Transportation Index rises, one should expect the economic activity to continue to increase.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, September 10, 2018

Stock Market Upward Reversal or Just Rebound? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

The broad stock market slightly extended its short-term downtrend on Friday, as investors continued taking profits off the table after the recent record-breaking rally. However, the S&P 500 index remains relatively close to its record high. Is this a topping pattern or just a pause before another leg up?

The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.2-0.3% on Friday, slightly extending their short-term downtrend, as investors reacted to the monthly jobs data release. The S&P 500 index has reached the record high of 2,916.50 on August the 29th. It currently trades 1.5% below that high. Both, Dow Jones Industrial Average and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 0.3% on Friday.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, September 10, 2018

The Coming Global Liquidity Crisis…The Kick Off of the Post Bubble Contraction / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018

By: Plunger

We have seen how the PBC has now begun and is making itself felt around the world starting at the periphery of the global economy, next moving to the senior markets of the world and eventually being transmitted to the core of the financial system.  As of now the US markets do not reflect any impact of the PBC, however there are signs it is fast approaching.

Tesla- Canary in the coal mine

So far US markets don’t seem to care what is happening in other markets around the world.  US Markets seem impervious.  A few months ago I pointed out that as long as Tesla stays elevated the US market should remain fine.  Call Tesla the canary in the coal mine.  Tesla continues to operate for one reason only- easy money. Remove the liquidly spigot and Tesla ceases to exist.  This company is so obviously a fraud on stock holders, yet it whistles past the graveyard with each outrageous act of its “nut job” CEO.  Simply put, as long as stock holders suspend reality in Tesla they are willing to believe anything.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, September 10, 2018

Will Stock Market Support Hold? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
 
Intermediate trend –  Another correction has started which could conceivably continue into mid-October.
 
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

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Stock-Markets

Monday, September 10, 2018

Lehman and Normalcy Bias / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018

By: Andy_Sutton

It is now September. The time of year that the fright forecasters live for. Their dispatches grow more and more desperate. Tragedy lies just on the horizon. ‘Buy our products now’ they say or ‘reap the whirlwind’. We are now just a few days from the 10th anniversary of the Lehman Weekend Extravaganza which was the official start date of what stuffed shirts in media and politics call the ‘Great Recession’.

On the US side of the Atlantic, the goings on since have edged people into what is called normalcy bias. How can that be you might ask; the Dow has quadrupled since 3/6/2009. That’s an average annual return over double the market’s average annual return over the prior 100 years. The sad thing is there is not a single average investor we know of who has seen their paper stocks quadruple in the last ten years. Those types of gains are reserved for hedge funds, and JP Morgan’s trading desk, not the average person. The idea that the playing field is level is so ludicrous it is actually funny.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, September 08, 2018

Stock Market Weak September Start Like 1987, 1991, and 2001? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Earlier this week I said that September would probably be weak. So far this weakness has played out, with the S&P falling every day this past week.

There are only 3 other historical cases in which the S&P started September by falling 4 days in a row.

  1. September 1987
  2. September 1991
  3. September 2001
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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 07, 2018

The Stock Market is Experiencing “Sector Rotation”. Is this Bearish? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market has been experiencing sector rotation recently.

  1. Earlier this year: the NASDAQ outperformed the Dow
  2. Now: the Dow is outperforming the NASDAQ (Dow is catching up).

Conventional technical analysis would have you believe that this is a bearish sign for the stock market. Conventional technical analysis states that “the bull market is dead when the leaders become laggards and previous laggards become leaders”.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 07, 2018

The Most Important Chart To Explain Why Stock Market Bears Lose Money / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

I have spoken about this many times in the past, but the fact is that very few understand our financial markets. While no one is perfect when it comes to being able to identify turning points in the market, I think we all know that there has been a significant increase in that lack of perfection when it comes to the US stock market over the last three years.

You see, many focus on the wrong factors when making decisions about the stock market. While events such as Brexit, Frexit, Grexit, rise in interest rates, cessation of QE, terrorist attacks, Crimea, Trump, Syrian missile attack, North Korea, record hurricane damage in Houston, Florida, and Puerto Rico, quantitative tightening, trade wars, and many more have scared investors into believing the bull market will come to an end, none of these events have even put a dent in this bull market as it has rallied 50% during this period.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 06, 2018

Mixed Stock Market, Topping Pattern or Just Pause Within a Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday, as investors continued to take profits off the table following the recent rally. The broad stock market remains relatively close to  its new record high. Is this a topping pattern or just pause before another leg up?

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -1.2% and +0.1% on Wednesday, as investors hesitated following the recent record-breaking rally.  The S&P 500 index has reached the record high of 2,916.50 last week. It currently trades below 2,900 mark. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.1% and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 1.2% yesterday.

The nearest important level of support of the S&P 500 index is at 2,875-2,885, marked by last week's Monday's daily gap up of 2,876.16-2,884.69 and yesterday's daily low of around 2,877. The support level is also at 2,860-2,865. On the other hand, the nearest important level of resistance is at 2,900. The next resistance level is at 2,910-2,915, marked by the mentioned last Wednesday's record high.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 06, 2018

China Contagion Risk is Now Spreading, And US Stock Market is NOT Immune / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Graham_Summers

As we noted yesterday, the global financial system is beginning to experience its first taste of “contagion” risk in years.

US stocks remains clueless to this… but it’s doubtful that will continue

China (black line in chart below) has imploded and is in a full-blown bear market. The odds that the US stock market (blue line in charts below) can avoid what’s affecting China are low.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 06, 2018

China Economy Sneezed… Will the World Catch Cold? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Graham_Summers

The markets are getting downright ugly. If things don’t turn up soon we could be at the point at which the Everything Bubble begins to burst.

While US stocks have performed relatively well recently, globally things are looking worse and worse.

Germany’s DAX never reclaimed its former high established back in January. Instead it’s been carving out a massive Head and Shoulders pattern. Germany is the fourth largest economy in the world and heavily reliant on exports for growth. This chart pattern doesn’t bode well for global trade or growth.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, September 05, 2018

S&P Made a New Stock Market High in August. Pullback in September? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P 500 made a monthly closing all-time high in August. This is uncommon, because the U.S. stock market is usually more volatile from May – September.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, September 04, 2018

Stock Market VIX & S&P: This Bearish Study isn’t as Bad as You Think / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

VIX and the S&P trend higher together during the final innings of a bull market.

Here’s VIX and the S&P 500 before the stock market’s top in 2007.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, September 04, 2018

We Have Had 9 Years To 'Prepare For The Stock Market Crash,' So Are We There Yet? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Avi_Gilburt

This past week, I read an article entitled “When Will S&P 500 Valuations Matter Again?,” written by Gary Gordon.

And, in his first bullet point, he said “truth be told, valuations have not mattered for the public markets for three-and-a-half years.” He then goes on to state that “on virtually any methodology one employs, the U.S. stock market is extremely overpriced.”

In coming to this conclusion, he has reviewed price-to-free-cash-flow, price-to-sales, market-cap-to-GDP, and other valuation matrices. Yet, as he noted in his bullet point, these valuations have not mattered for the three and half years where the market added 50% to its price. Yes, that is a 50% return which cannot be supported by traditional valuation methodologies.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, September 04, 2018

Financial Crisis 10 Years Later – No Lessons Learned / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: James_Quinn

“A variety of investors provided capital to financial companies, with which they made irresponsible loans and took excessive risks. These activities resulted in real losses, which have largely wiped out the shareholder equity of the companies. But behind that shareholder equity is bondholder money, and so much of it that neither depositors of the institution nor the public ever need to take a penny of losses. Citigroup, for example, has $2 trillion in assets, but also has $600 billion owed to its own bondholders. From an ethical perspective, the lenders who took the risk to finance the activities of these companies are the ones that should directly bear the cost of the losses.”John Hussman – May 2009

This month marks the 10th anniversary of the Wall Street/Fed/Treasury created financial disaster of 2008/2009. What should have happened was an orderly liquidation of the criminal Wall Street banks who committed the greatest control fraud in world history and the disposition of their good assets to non-criminal banks who did not recklessly leverage their assets by 30 to 1, while fraudulently issuing worthless loans to deadbeats and criminals. But we know that did not happen.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, September 03, 2018

Dow Secondary Stock Market High Imminent / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Austin_Galt

Previous analysis updated – price as traded as outlined, rising to levels where a secondary is likely to form. However, there is a change to the longer term outlook in that I now favour a more substantial correction to take place before the overall bull market resumes.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, September 03, 2018

The S&P has become overbought for the first time in 7 months. What’s next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The U.S. stock market (S&P 500) has become overbought for the first time in a long time. It’s 14 daily RSI has reached 70 for the first time since late-January 2018 while it remains above its 200 daily moving average.

In other words, momentum has returned to the stock market.

When momentum returns to the stock market, its forward returns over the next year are very bullish. Don’t turn bearish just because the stock market is overbought.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, September 02, 2018

Financial Markets Are Nearing the Line in the Sand / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018

By: Harry_Dent

Most of the classic technical indicators favor a continued rally in stocks into 2019.

And that’s still my preferred scenario for a final peak. One that happens in late 2019, coming off of this Trump rally that started in late 2016.

It could be near its peak growth rate after the 4.1% GDP report.

But it’s not likely to be sustainable for long given that we are running out of workers to rehire, and the real estate bubble seems to be finally be running out of steam due to such high prices making homes and rentals unaffordable.

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