Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, January 07, 2014
Demographics, Stocks Bear Market, Global Recession And Deflation / Stock-Markets / Deflation
By: John_Hampson
Historically, demographic trends have correlated with secular bulls and bears in financial assets, economic growth/recession and inflation/deflation. Demographic forecasts are reliable because future trends were set in place with past swells and shrinkages in birth numbers. They would change if a country was subject to large scale death (war, pandemic, or similar) or the government henceforth adopted radical immigration policies. Demographics are particularly potent in countries that are relatively closed to migration, so understand that China has the smallest percentage of immigrants of any country (0.1% of the population), and Japan just 1.9% (compared to USA, UK and Germany all over 10%). My focus is on USA, China, Japan, Germany and UK, as collectively they make up 50% of world GDP. Know that whilst the European Union abolished barriers to movement within it, the demographics across all the member nations are uniformly poor.
Monday, January 06, 2014
U.S. Stock Market Too Big to Pop / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Peter_Schiff
Most economic observers are predicting that 2014 will be the year in which the United States finally shrugs off the persistent malaise of the Great Recession. As we embark on this sunny new chapter, we may ask what wisdom the five-year trauma has delivered. Some big thinkers have declared that the episode has forever tarnished freewheeling American capitalism and the myth of Wall Street invincibility. In contrast, I believe that the episode has, for the moment, established supreme confidence in the powers of monetary policy to keep the economy afloat and to keep a floor under asset prices, even in the worst of circumstances. This represents a dramatic change from where we were in the beginning of 2008, and unfortunately gives us the false confidence needed to sail blindly into the next crisis.
Monday, January 06, 2014
Stock Market Resistance & Cycles Asserting Themselves / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the severe correction of 2007-2009 may have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - An important top formation is in the making.
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Sunday, January 05, 2014
US Stock Markets Still Setting Up for a Major Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: WavePatternTraders
Short term
We went into this week looking for a short term top for wave [iii], the late day spike on New Year's eve appeared to give us the small spike from a small triangle, so it set up for a reversal this past week for wave [iv]. My preferred idea is that this is still in wave [iv] and a new high is still to come, although there is an alternative count that suggests the peak is in place for wave [v] of 5, however I would need to see a strong decline under 16200 to suggest a reversal.
Sunday, January 05, 2014
Transformative Human Biotech Revolution Forecast 2014 / Stock-Markets / BioTech
By: John_Mauldin
It is that time of the year when we peer into our darkened crystal balls in hopes of seeing portents of the future in the shadowy mists. This year I see three distinct wisps of vapor coalescing in the coming years. Each deserves its own treatment, so this year the annual forecast issue will in fact be three separate weekly pieces.
The final letter of the series will discuss what I see as potentially developing in the markets this year, but such prognostication has to be framed within the context of two larger and far more important streams. Next week we will examine the larger economic problems facing much of the developed world, and specifically we'll consider the Era of Unfulfilled Expectations. What happens when governments and central banks find it impossible to live up to the promises that they have made to their constituencies? Throw in a mix of frustrating demographics and disastrous economic policy choices, and you have a witch's brew of uncertainties.
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Sunday, January 05, 2014
Stock Market Investors Get Out Now! No New Paradigm! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Clive_Maund
Welcome to the New Year, and to the "New Paradigm", where stocks go up in perpetuity because, well, because they're going up, and because the Fed stands behind the market likes a towering Father Christmas ready to pump more money whenever the markets shows signs of flagging, and to maintain interest rates at zero forever. It couldn't look better, and therein lies the problem.
Saturday, January 04, 2014
Stock Market Down for 1st Trading Day of January in 6 Years - Getting Tougher... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Sy_Harding
The bulls had a rare experience this week. The market was actually down on the first day of the new year. Something that hadn't happened in six years. They also had to deal with a down day of over 100 points on the Dow. You have to laugh, but that's just not very common these days. The problem was the gap down yesterday that is not playing against the bulls on any attempt back higher. Some technical damage for a change. This doesn't mean the market is going to just roll over. Not by any means although the conditions are such that it could. However, turning the Titanic is never easy, and, with buying on weakness the mantra for quite some time, the bears have to be patient in how this market slowly turns from bullish to a bit more bearish for the short-term.
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Saturday, January 04, 2014
Financial and Commodity Market Movers for 2014 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: DeepCaster_LLC
Maturing and Nascent Trends and New Developments should increase Social and Economic Turmoil and Greatly Increase Volatility in the Markets in 2014. Result: Mega Moves in Key Markets, the Most Salient of which we outline here.
These Mega Moves will create Great Opportunities for Profit for the Nimble and well-informed, and Great Losses for the Purblind or those in Denial of Economic and Financial Realities.
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Saturday, January 04, 2014
The Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2013 - Stocks Stealth Bull Market Raged On! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market surged higher into the end of 2013 to close well above Dow 16,000 at 16,576, a whopping gain of 26.5% for the year! This for a year that contained widespread repeated calls of not only why the stock market could NOT rise during 2013 but also that a stock market crash was always imminent, just as had been for virtually the whole of 2012. But don't worry, there will be plenty more cliff-hanger events during 2014 to illicit even more intense perma bear mantra such as the return of the U.S. debt ceiling crisis.
Friday, January 03, 2014
Will Stock Market’s 2013 Winners Also Be Winners in 2014? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Sy_Harding
As the headlines proclaim, the stock market produced unusual gains in 2013.
Be careful how you react.
It’s common knowledge and well documented that one of the most costly mistakes investors make is to chase performance.
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Friday, January 03, 2014
Stock Market SPX Remains on an Aggressive Sell Signal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
I had mentioned earlier that the “traditional” relationship between stocks and bonds no longer applies. The Cycles Model will tell you that these so-called relationships come and go since no two cycles are identical.
I have been stressing that USB is about to cross its 32-year trendline and for a while will actually decline alongside stocks.
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Friday, January 03, 2014
Stock Market Opens 2014 in a Minor Key / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short: On Tuesday the S&P 500 closed out 2013 with a major bang, setting another all-time high. Today, the first market day of 2014, the index opened in a minor key with selling pressure from the opening bell. It hit its -0.14% intraday high in the opening minutes and sold off to its -1.12% mid-afternoon intraday low. By the closing bell it had trimmed the loss to 0.89%.
Thursday, January 02, 2014
8 Economic and Market Forecasts for 2014 Gold, Bitcoin, 3D Printing... / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: Jason_Hamlin
Economic predictions are a crap shoot at anytime, but especially during times when central bank intervention is running at all-time highs. The markets are more managed and manipulated now than at any point in history. The Federal Reserve is literally propping up the entire system via nearly $1 Trillion in bond purchases per year, artificially low interest rates, an active plunge-protection team, gold market intervention, economic data manipulation and clandestine operations we have yet to understand.
Thursday, January 02, 2014
Stock Market Historic Optimism - What Does it Mean? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: EWI
How do you know when the market is getting ready
for a change? This quote from Bob Prechter's best-selling book, Conquer
the Crash, looks at investor psychology at extremes in the markets:
The engine of high stock market valuation is widely shared optimism. The greater the degree of the advance that is ending, the greater the optimism at its peak. Optimism also tends to remain strong in the early stages of a bear market ...
Today, how optimistic are market participants? Bob dedicated an entire issue of his Elliott Wave Theorist market letter to looking at the level of optimism in the markets today. These two charts, excerpted from that letter, show just a piece of the story. Learn how you can get the entire issue, with 15 eye-opening charts, for free.
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Thursday, January 02, 2014
Secular Stocks Bull and Bear Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: PhilStockWorld
Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? Without crystal ball, we simply don’t know.
One thing we can do is examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of possibilities. An obvious feature of this inflation-adjusted is the pattern of long-term alternations between up-and down-trends. Market historians call these “secular” bull and bear markets from the Latin word saeculum “long period of time” (in contrast to aeternus “eternal” — the type of bull market we fantasize about).
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Wednesday, January 01, 2014
Forex, Oil and Gold Market Forecasts for 2014 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: Submissions
David Parker writes:
EUR/USD
The EURUSD started 2013 just above its major resistance at 1.3000 and managed to climb up to 1.3790 by the end of January 2013, as the Fed decided to increase its monthly asset purchases from $40 billion to $85 billion. At the end of the first quarter, the banking crisis expanded across the European countries and the single currency tumbled down to 1.2740, which was the yearly low for the pair. For a few months, the pair swung between gains and losses and at the beginning of July hit a double bottom at 1.2740, as Ben Bernanke announced a trim to the asset purchases during September.
Wednesday, January 01, 2014
Stock Market Ends 2013 at a New All-Time High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short: The S&P 500 closed out the year with a 29.60% gain and ended at a new all-time high. Only four times since its inception in 1957 has index had higher annual gains: 38.06% in 1958, 31.55% in 1975, 34.11% in 1995, and 31.01% in 1997.
Wednesday, January 01, 2014
Cyprus Stock Market - The Next Crisis Investing Opportunity / Stock-Markets / European Stock Markets
By: Casey_Research
By Nick Giambruno, Senior Editor, International Man
Recently, legendary crisis investor Doug Casey and I put our boots to the ground in Cyprus to search the rubble of one of recent history's most significant financial crises—the financial collapse and bank deposit raid in Cyprus—for incredible bargains. And we found them.
The fact of the matter is that there are sound, productive, and well-run businesses that are listed on the Cyprus Stock Exchange that continue to produce earnings and pay dividends.
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Wednesday, January 01, 2014
Looking Back at the Year of the Stocks Bull Market 2013 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Frank_Holmes
I've often said that trying to stop a bull market has risks. It was certainly precarious to think this year's run would end anytime soon.
By December 27, the S&P 500 Index climbed an astounding 31.86 percent in 2013. We're also pleased that shareholders in U.S. Global Investors' All American Equity Fund (GBTFX) and Holmes Macro Trends Fund (ACBGX) were along for the ride and more this year, as both funds outperformed their respective benchmarks. Check out their performance here.
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Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Stock Market Holiday Bulge – Prepare for Selling! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I would like to start by wishing you a Happy Holidays & New Year!
So far this year (2013) has been a great year for trading and my 2014 forecast looks to be as good if not even better. I do have something exciting to share with you that is going to make 2014 really amazing, but first let me talk about the stock market and what is likely to unfold in the next week or two so you can protect your investments.
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