Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, October 02, 2015

The Two Faces of Stock Market Volatility / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: EWI

Which one should you heed?

Volatility, volatility, volatility. It's all the financial world can talk about lately... and, well, for good reason. In the past few months, the world's stock markets have endured some of the most gut-wrenching price swings since the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

But for many investors, it's still not clear what this volatility means for the status of the bull market in U.S. stocks.

Friday, October 02, 2015

Money Supply and the Fed’s Serious Inflation Risks / Stock-Markets / Inflation

By: Zeal_LLC

Traders today universally believe inflation is dead, that there is no persistent decline in the purchasing power of money.  That’s what government price indexes around the world are indicating.  But this false notion is one of recent years’ main Fed-conjured illusions.  Price inflation is the result of rising money supplies, and they have been skyrocketing.  Serious risks are mounting that they will spill into price levels.

As simple as money seems, it is very complex in both theory and practice.  We all understand the idea of working to earn money to buy goods and services.  But the seminal treatise on money, the legendary economist Ludwig von Mises’ “The Theory of Money and Credit” published in 1912, weighed in at 445 pages!  Money is a topic that endlessly preoccupies elite central bankers with doctorates in economics.

Friday, October 02, 2015

Stock Market How Bad Can This Get, And How Fast? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Raul_I_Meijer

There’s so much negative real bad economic and financial news out there that it’s hard to choose a ‘favorite’, but I guess I’m going to have to go with what underlies and ‘structures’ it all, the IIF stating that for the first time since 1988 and the Reagan presidency, there’s more money flowing out of emerging markets than there’s flowing in. That is for sure a watershed moment. 

And no, that trend is not going to be reversed either anytime soon. Emerging economies, even if they wouldn’t include China -but they do-, have relied exclusively on selling ‘stuff’ to the rich world which combined cheap commodities with cheap labor, and now they see their customer base shrink rapidly just as they were preparing to harvest the big loot. 

Friday, October 02, 2015

Stocks Bull Market - We Have Some Bad News / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Casey_Research

By Justin Spittler

The stock market just finished a brutal third quarter…

The S&P 500 fell 8%...and so did the Dow and the NASDAQ. It was the worst quarter for U.S. stocks since 2011.

Friday, October 02, 2015

Stock Market Tinder Box / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Gary_Tanashian

We have been using the Tinder Box theme in NFTRH lately.  As in, stock market sentiment is so bleak, so depressed as to be a Tinder Box with the elements to ignite a flame that bounces the market, to clear the over bearishness at least.

We  have successfully followed a plan every step of the way… 1. down from the August breakdown, 2. up on the bounce to SPX 1975 or 2040 (hit 2020) and now 3. down to a test of the October 2014 / August 2015 lows, which is a decision point between a bounce or an entry into a bear market (by making a lower low to October 2014).

Friday, October 02, 2015

Negative Jobs Report Sents SPX, TNX Lower / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The best proxy for the Monthly Jobs Report is TNX, because bonds start trading around 8:15. As you can see, it had a horrible miss, only 142,000 new jobs reported in August. The consensus expectation was 215,000.

The CES Birth/Death Model report has just been updated, showing a loss of 34,000 fictitious jobs in September. This statistic is made up out of thin air. But the August payroll number has also been revised downward. It is possible that the US has seen negative job growth for the first time in memory.

Friday, October 02, 2015

Don't be Fooled by the Recent Equity market Rallies. Its a Bear Market, Stupid! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Brian_Bloom

The daily chart below, of the Dow Jones Industrial Index, shows a significant technical non-confirmation: The On Balance Volume segment of the chart has been falling in the face of a rising Index, which indicates that sellers have been taking advantage of rising prices in the past couple of weeks to increase the rate at which they have been offloading their stocks.

Thursday, October 01, 2015

What Two Risks From Rising Interest-Rates Could Each Trigger A New Global Crisis? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2015

By: Dan_Amerman

Why are interest rates at historic lows in the United States and around the world? 

The widely-accepted answer is that very low interest rates exist for the purpose of stimulating economic growth and corporate profits, and are thereby helping the United States and other nations that are struggling with persistent and deep-rooted economic and unemployment problems.

Thursday, October 01, 2015

Stock Market 180 in 50 Weeks. This is Different / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Ashraf_Laidi

A lot has happened since that fateful October bottom in stocks, which was driven by a multitude of factors namely, market worries over end of Fed QE and escalating casualties from the Ebola virus. But those were only worries and not factual manifestations of data weakness. Today, the extended weakness in the world's biggest buyer of commodities, combined with the erosion of the "Gulf Nations' Put" as well as the decline in EM FX reserves is a de facto tightening from in and capital markets.

Thursday, October 01, 2015

Stock Market S&P 500 Volatility-Based Price Probability Range / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Richard_Shaw

• Historical volatility projection suggests the range of probable S&P 500 prices from around 1750 to 2050 by year-end
• Major trend indicators suggest high probability of prices ending in the lower half of the probability range
• GAAP P/E and forward operating P/E ratios reverting to 5-year and 10-year averages suggest prices in the 1700’s
• GAAP earnings have turned down and prices tend to follow
• But GAAP earnings yield relative to current and near-term prospective 10-year Treasury yield is supportive of current index price

Thursday, October 01, 2015

Dow Stock Market About To Crash Like October 1929? Get Your Physical Silver / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Hubert_Moolman

Significant nominal peaks in the price of silver tend to come after significant nominal peaks in the Dow. This has been the case for the last 100 years at least.
It is no coincidence that significant silver rallies follow after significant Dow rallies end, as I have explained before. It is simply a natural reaction to what caused the stock market rally as well as the effects of that rally. So, if it happened before, it will certainly occur again.

Thursday, October 01, 2015

Stock Market Negative Expectations Once Again - Will It Break Down? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative long positions are favored (with stop-loss at 1,810, and profit target at 2,020, S&P 500 index)

Our intraday outlook is bullish, and our short-term outlook is bullish:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bullish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bullish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

Thursday, October 01, 2015

Stock Market Closing the Books on September...Pessimism Extreme...Testing Weekly Support Lines.. / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

I thought, based on the markets behavior ending last Friday, that we'd see a bull-bear spread on the Investors-Intelligence survey of around minus -7% today when the new number was released. I wasn't pessimistic enough apparently as the number came in at -10.4%. With the action we saw in the market Monday and Tuesday it's actually quite possible we're now at lower levels on this measure. It goes to show you how fast things can unwind from froth to fear when all the leading froth stocks get completely annihilated, such as we've seen in the world of biotechs.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Stock Market Retracement May Have Run Its Course / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX met neckline resistance near 1912.00 and has been repelled near the Fibonacci 50% retracement level at 1912.35. Apparently there were a significant number of stops at 1910.00 that attracted the Algos.

The algos appear to be spinning their wheels at 1916.50, which may be the top of this retracement. Selling pressure appears to be settling in.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

A Stocks Bear Market Is Now More Likely Than Not / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Richard_Shaw

• A Bear market from this Correction is more likely than not
• Yield Curve suggests Bull has further to go
• Breadth measures suggest Bull is exhausted
• Triple top and Head & Shoulders pattern suggests breakout to the downside
• 4 Factor Technical indicator suggests Bear is around the corner

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Stocks One More Crash Leg Down Into Mid October / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Gary_Savage

Stocks should be getting close to a bounce out of the half cycle low, but there should still be one more crash leg down into mid October before the 7 year crash low is complete. The 200 week moving average is at roughly 1700. I would think that would be a minimum target with a maximum target at 1550.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

What Could Reverse The Global Stock and Commodity Markets Decline? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Clif_Droke

Falling stock and commodity prices around the world are underscoring a change of fortunes for the global economy. As the shockwaves from Europe, China and the developing markets spreads, there is a growing sense among investors that the U.S. might be the next casualty of the global slowdown.

Economists have already begun questioning what, if anything, the Federal Reserve might be able to do to stem the financial market selling pressure. Weakness has been broad-based and is visible in stocks, commodities as well as high-yield corporate bonds. Since the first bear market of the new millennium, the Fed has played an outsized role as a stimulator of equity markets and the economy.

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Are the Central Banks Attempting to Dam the Stock Market Waterfall? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The bounce to the hourly Cycle Bottom was spot-on. It remains to be seen whether there may be yet another bounce (Micro Wave c) to a higher position. I think not, but reserve the right to be wrong.

Today s day 8 of the decline from the Wave (B) peak. Unless there is some catalyst to speed things up, we may not see the decline end in 8.6 days (mid-day tomorrow). The next potential interval for a flash crash is 10.75 days, which would potentially give us a low on Friday (early afternoon).

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Stock Market It’s All Downhill From Here… / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Ed_Carlson

…well, down anyway. An emissions scandal at VW (the world’s largest auto maker), the announcement from Caterpillar that it is laying off 10,000 workers, a 5,000% price increase in a 62-year-old drug, the resignation of the US Speaker of the House, and Janet Yellen reaffirming a rate hike before the end of the year… what’s not to be bullish about?!

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Stocks: Why Following the Crowd is Usually a Big Mistake / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: EWI

Millionaires show poor market timing

We've seen it time and again: The investment crowd often hops aboard a financial trend just as it's about to end.

Government itself is actually a case in point. Here's what the August 2007 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast said: