Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Saturday, October 10, 2015

Stock Market Primary V to New Highs Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Tony_Caldaro

The week started at SPX 1951. After a gap up opening on Monday morning to start the week, the market made higher highs and lows every day ending the week at SPX 2015. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 3.5%, the NDX/NAZ gained 2.5%, and the DJ World index gained 4.4%. Economic reports for the week continued their neutral to negative bias. On the uptick: wholesale inventories, the WLEI, GDPn and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: ISM services, consumer credit, export/import prices, the MMIS and the trade deficit expanded. Next week, a busy week, we get Industrial production, the FED’s Beige book, and Retail sales.

Saturday, October 10, 2015

A Week Where Pessimism Ruled.... Stock Markets Rally.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

Pessimism has been rocking in over the past two months. Step by step we've seen more and more bears come in, while more and more bulls run out. Shorting positions dramatically on the rise. Fewer and fewer people are talking as if the market can actually go up again. So naturally the market had a nice week to the upside, closing at overbought on the short-term charts for good measure. Shows how much pessimism and short interest can do for the short-term, if not a bit longer than that. The bull-bear spread started the week at minus 4%. It was probably close to zero or slightly green, but still a solid number for the bulls.

Friday, October 09, 2015

Stock Market Rally May be Broken / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

At 9:59 am the SPX made a failed attempt at a new high, missing by 95 ticks. It appears to be coming back down and may break the uptrend at 2010.00. SPX regains its sell signal below the 50-day Moving Average at 1993.78.

The reason I brought up the time element is that it is exactly 51.6 hours from the low on Sept 29.

Friday, October 09, 2015

Contrarian Investing - Being the 10th Man / Stock-Markets / Investing 2015

By: John_Mauldin

By Jared Dillian

I was going to give you this big macro rundown of what happened since the payroll number, but I changed my mind. Anybody can give you the play-by-play. Let’s talk about it in the context of true contrarian investing.

Being contrarian doesn’t just mean doing the opposite of what everyone else is doing. It means doing what is really unpopular and may make you subject to ridicule.

Friday, October 09, 2015

Global Players at the Financial Poker Table / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: DeviantInvestor

From the movie “Rounders” regarding poker:

“If you can’t spot the sucker in the first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker.”  

Friday, October 09, 2015

Stock Market Waiting for the Turn / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The SPX Premarket is higher this morning. This appears to be the final phase of the rally, which may be gunning for the hourly Cycle Top at 2022.41.

ZeroHedge comments, “Several days ago, we pointed out a startling fact: short interest in the NYSE had risen to match the record level seen just before the collapse of Lehman!

Friday, October 09, 2015

Financial Markets Calm Before the Storm? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: Puru_Saxena

BIG PICTURE - Global business activity is slowing down and the majority of the developing nations are experiencing severe economic problems. Over in the developed world, Japan is contracting again, Euro zone is barely growing and even America's leading economic indicators are suggesting trouble ahead. Elsewhere, the CRB Index is trading at a 13-year low and this implosion in the prices of commodities is suggesting that all is not well with the global economy.

The crux of the matter is that the world is severely over-indebted (debt to GDP ratio of 286%, Figure 1) and without fiscal measures, viable reforms and debt restructuring, we will probably remain stuck in this low growth environment for years. Unfortunately, you cannot solve a problem of too much debt by encouraging even more borrowing; yet policymakers are trying to fix this mess by lowering interest rates and injecting liquidity.

Friday, October 09, 2015

Stock Market History Calling, Says Performance will be Crappy for Another ~10 years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: John_Mauldin

I remember the first time I walked into Henry Blodget’s new startup, Business Insider, back in 2009. Twelve fresh-faced kids were crammed into a room about the size of my bedroom, pounding away on laptops, creating a new destination website. He took me over to a corner; we sat down in front of a few cameras; and he began shooting question after question at me, later turning the session into a series of interviews.

You walk into his office today and it’s still packed wall-to-wall with fresh-faced kids (the older I get the younger they look), but the offices are much larger, and it seemed to me last time that there had to be at least 150 people in them. But the interviews are still quick-paced, even if they’re now conducted in a special room, with upgraded equipment.

Friday, October 09, 2015

Cycle Top Met in the SPX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The final surge in SPX hit Cycle Top resistance at 2013.51 where it appears to be repelled. A cross beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 1994.49 puts SPX back on a confirmed sell signal.

SPX has a new bearish profile with an Orthodox Broadening Top formation. A final peak that is lower than the second peak of the formation elevates the probability of a negative outcome to over 80%. Once SPX declines beneath the lower trendline the chances of meeting its proposed target is elevated to as high as 96%.

Thursday, October 08, 2015

FOMC Minutes Fireworks / Stock-Markets / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX has risen back to the 50-da Moving Average for the 5th time. I don’t like this action, but it seems that the market is waiting for the release of the FOMC Minutes at 2:00 pm.

Reuters reports, “U.S. stocks fell on Thursday as investors await the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting to get an insight into the central bank's decision to keep interest rates steady.

Thursday, October 08, 2015

How to Profit from the Coming Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: MM

MoneyMorning.com By Shah Gilani, Everyone loves a bull market, and it seems that almost everyone fears a bear market.

Not me… I love them both.

In fact, I especially love it when stocks, or bonds, or commodities, or just about any asset class, goes down.

That's because I make what I call "easy money" (and a lot of it) by flipping the securities I trade and invest in when markets head south.

Thursday, October 08, 2015

US Stocks: The [Trend]Line Between Bull and Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: EWI

Our FREE report shows you just how invaluable trendlines are for anticipating major reversals

Last weekend, I went on a road trip with a friend and her two young sons. The second we left the driveway, the older boy placed a rubber pool noodle in between him and his brother and established the most important ground rule of all sibling driving trips:

Thursday, October 08, 2015

Stock Market Pessimism Still Very High.....Bulls Enjoying The Negativity Off The Lows... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

When markets get overly optimistic, meaning too many bulls, they have a tendency to struggle, even if it takes a while before they go down appreciably. See how the market did nothing most of last year except to move laterally. Then we had the strong and powerful move lower that took the S&P 500 down 14%. Now we're dealing with the opposite effect. The bull-bears spread now at minus 4.2%, which is off last week's minus 10% reading, but still below 0, which is very good news for the bulls. The Rydex bear fund is also at three-year highs, which shows you the bears are still quite aggressive, which is a negative for them, of course. The market has shown a few gap ups here over the past couple of days, and may now be headed for a lateral bull-flag type of set up.

Wednesday, October 07, 2015

Stock Market VERY IMPORTANT Turn Date / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

It appears that I was closer to the truth than I had imagined when I said that yesterday’s (today’s) Pivot was more important than that on September 17. The Elliott Wave pattern shows today’s Intermediate Wave (B) as the orthodox retracement top, but not the high in the corrective formation. This is an irregular pattern and gives the message that SPX may be ready for a larger decline than previously imagined.

Wednesday, October 07, 2015

Is Another Historic Stock Market Collapse Just Around the Corner? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

This morning’s Premarket shows SPX challenging yesterday’s high. With corporate quarterly earnings reports beginning en masse before the open, there is no telling if SPX opens higher or not.

ZeroHedge reports that the first four out of four earnings reports have been disappointing.

Tuesday, October 06, 2015

Stock Market Turn Appears to Have Been Made / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX peaked at 10:00, as suggested this morning. I had suggested that last Thursday might be the peak, due to an indication of a Primary Pivot there. However, it was not in the dominant Cycle. Today was day 43 of the dominant Cycle, that is, the one beginning on August 24.

One of the reasons for much of the confusion up to the July 20 high was the lack of dominant Cycles. That is why I had emphasized the July 7 low as being a probable flash crash, which it wasn’t, because it originated on October 15, 2014. Now that we are getting sorted out, it may be easier to follow the next series of declines and rallies.

Tuesday, October 06, 2015

SPX Finishing its Retracement this Morning / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX Premarket has eased down, but not impulsively. This suggests another probe higher at the open. The estimated target may be between 2000.00 and 2004.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “The best headline to summarize what happened in the early part of the overnight session was the following from Bloomberg: "Asian stocks extend global rally on stimulus bets."

Tuesday, October 06, 2015

Stock Market European Surprise.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

One thing I've learned through the years is to expect the unexpected. The global-economic reports have been poor, and have been getting worse as time moves along. It doesn't matter what part of the globe we're speaking about, the news just keeps getting worse. Based on that reality, we've seen our markets struggle for quite some time now. Fundamentals are rising above fear. When you think about how intense fear is, it's pretty amazing that the bears can still win with poor fundamentals. That said, the unexpected good news hit out of nowhere, which is how it always occurs. The Euro Zone had their retail-sales report, and it came in better than expected, not only month over month, but year over year. The Euro Zone saw all of their markets rise on that news, and, in some cases, explosively so. There are so many shorts out there that it wouldn't take too much to get a decent rally.

Tuesday, October 06, 2015

Stocks Bear Market Apocalypse Imminent Crash Gets Nuked Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The last 2 months have been increasingly witnessing ever louder market calls for the beginnings of a new stocks bear market and this not just from the usual suspects, the perma bears who call every correction of the past 6+ years as marking the start of a bear market. Lately an increasing number of those who had managed to remain 'mostly' bullish in the face of a relentless stocks bull market have been increasingly coming out pronouncements of stocks now being in a bear market .

Monday, October 05, 2015

Macrocosm Revisited / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: Gary_Tanashian

Here again is our representation of what a positive macro environment would look like for a bullish gold and gold mining stance. We created this theme in July for NFTRH 353.

This view comes off as repugnant to much of the gold “community”, but I cannot stress strongly enough how important it is to tune out the fairy stories about missing COMEX gold (and silver), love-inspired demand from China and India, ‘rising US employment drives interest rates, incentivizes banks to lend and creates inflation, driving people into gold and gold stocks’ or any other angle out there that does not focus on declining confidence in policy making and its ability to control economies and financial markets. Every single one of these supposed fundamentals have already been proven wrong.