Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, November 19, 2015
Fed Talk... Rates To Rise.... Watching S&P 500 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
The stock market has been resilient no doubt. The bulls are buying up moves lower over and over ever since the bull-bear spread got down to minus 10%. In a bear market minus 10% reading isn't all that important. It can and will go much lower than that, but since all we had was a correction when we reached minus 10%, the bulls became active once again. There hadn't been any real distribution volume on that last correction, so that was one way to recognize that the bear had yet to begin. Let's face it, the best way to blast off a new bear market would be to make new highs and get a negative divergence in real time on those horrible-looking, monthly index charts.
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Thursday, November 19, 2015
Strong Stock Market Retracement / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The correction appears to be in the final leg. It has two probable targets. First is the 61.8% retracement value, which it has already achieved. The second is the top of Wave [iv] at 2086.94.
This retracement has gone much further than I had expected, but the Leading Diagonal was not at the top of my list, either. Leading Diagonals can fool a lot of people, since they camouflage their true impulsive nature. Notice that I had to use the 10-minute chart to get enough granularity to trace this pattern out.
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Thursday, November 19, 2015
Dow Jones Stock Market Index is Not Going to Crash / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Sol_Palha
Empty pockets never held anyone back. Only empty heads and empty hearts can do that. ~ Norman Vincent Peale
We have published several articles over the past few months refuting proclamations from experts calling for a crash, two of which are Market sell off time to panic? And The Dow index is getting ready to soar . Instead, we viewed each so-called crash event through a bullish lens. We even went so far as to tell our clients to celebrate while the markets were pulling back, a practice that is unheard of today.
Read full article... Read full article...Look at the bright side; you get to do something you have never done before. Drink while everyone is screaming bloody murder and sing when the markets are sinking. Who knows you might be a budding singer in the makings. Yes, most will call you insane, but instead of being stricken with fear, you will now be the master of your destiny instead of a slave to another's. Drink and be merry for the markets are letting out some well-deserved steam. We see no reason to worry and no reason not to sleep well at night. ~ Interim Market Update July 9, 2015
Wednesday, November 18, 2015
The Stock Market Global Central Bank Put Option / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Bob_Kirtley
Highly accommodative monetary policy and the increased responsiveness of central banks globally to economic shocks and other crises has led to a situation where, if such a shock occurs, then central banks ease monetary policy quickly in response. This action calms markets, resulting in minimized selloffs and contained volatility while driving equities higher.
This phenomenon can be described as the Central Bank Put Option, as the situation effectively means that investors have a put option given to them by the central banks. We will discuss its origin and how it is currently in play, and then cover different strategies that can be used to take advantage of the put. Following this we will also look to analyse whether the Central Bank Put will be in play next year and how it may be traded going forward.
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
SPX Repelled at the 200-day MA / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX pulled away from the 200-day Moving Average at 2064.17 and mid-Cycle resistance at 2061.53. Currently it is just above its Orthodox Broadening Top trendline at 2045.00 and Intermediate-term support at 2043.17. The 50-day Moving Average at 2011.90 may not hold the falling SPX at this point. A close above it would invite a gap down at the next open, IMO.
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Tuesday, November 17, 2015
Stock Markets - Have Men and Money Schemes Changed? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Doug_Wakefield
Week after week as we have come through 2015, there have been warnings from global markets and the global economy that our current juncture was unsustainable and slowing down. Yet the central banking rock stars were regularly plastered across the “tabloids” as having another interventionist solution, while high speed computers and stock buybacks created a world of “never fear reality” presented to the public, thus helping prices soar back up to produce the latest “all time high” of the day.
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
Is a Major Stock Market Top Forming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Harry_Dent
I warned in early October that stocks looked like they were setting up for another sharp crash into the height of the “crash season” in mid-October.Instead, we got rate cuts in China, rumblings of stronger QE in Europe, and a continued rally at home.
In other words – central banks delayed the inevitable. Again.
So let’s look at where the markets are today…
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Tuesday, November 17, 2015
SPX Probing at the 200-day Moving Average / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX ramped above the Broadening Top lower trendline in the final hour of yesterday’s session. The SPX Premarket is up about 5 points as I write, but still beneath its ultimate resistances, the daily mid-Cycle resistance at 2061.97 and the 200-day Moving Average at 2064.38.
Today and tomorrow are both Pivot days. Tomorrow is the stronger one. I had originally surmised that tomorrow would be a low with a ramp into options expiration. The timing of this retracement changes things, with potentially devastating consequences. A decline through options expiration would certainly magnify the volatility during such an event.
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Tuesday, November 17, 2015
Terrorism.... Weakening Economy... Stock Market Finally Bounces.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
It's old. It's boring. It's pathetic. It's inhuman. It's a lot more than all of that, but what's left to say that hasn't already been said. Terrorism is a sad reality in our world, and will likely never go away in our lifetime, or the lifetime of many generations to come. It seems to be in the DNA of humanity. We had a very sad display of terrorism late Friday night in Paris. Too many perished on suicide bombings. A terrible act toward human life, unfortunately. We're in the business of the stock market, and, of course, the initial reaction of the market was to blast lower after hours on Friday. The S&P 500 was down as many as seventeen points, with fair value included. With the market hanging on by a thread at key, 2020 support on the S&P 500, things looked really bad for the bulls. When terrorism happens a day, or so, when the market is closed, often times the futures start coming back up as the world has grown sadly used to this type of behavior.
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Monday, November 16, 2015
Bond Traders have not been this Short Since Early 2010 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
ZeroHedge reports, “Bond traders have not been this speculatively short Treasuries since early 2010. Since The Fed turned uber hawkish at the last FOMC, and convinced the market that it will raise rates in December - despite dismally dropping data everywhere, speculators have drastically increased their short positions across the entire Treasury spectrum. The last time the world was this short Treasuries, the 10Y yield collapsed from 3.94% to 2.39% in just 3 months.”
Monday, November 16, 2015
Markets Reacting to Paris Attack 'Rationally': Asness / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
By: Bloomberg
Cliff Asness of AQR Capital Management, joined Stephanie Ruhle, David Westin and Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg TV's new flagship morning program, Bloomberg <GO>. He discussed market reaction to the Paris terror attacks and the use of long-term investing to overcome risks.
ERIK SCHATZKER: As I mentioned moments ago, Cliff Asness of AQR is here. Cliff, if we could begin with a little bit on the way investors tend to think about events like the terrorist attacks in Paris on Friday, Matt showed us that things haven't really moved that much. And frankly if you look at the historic record, things don't move that much over time after these horrible incidents. So, again, as the investor, as a man who sits on top of $135 billion and, granted, not all of your strategies would speak to this, why is that the case?
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Monday, November 16, 2015
Stock Market Building Selling Pressure / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Gary_Savage
Playing devils advocate and assuming the selling pressure is strong enough to overwhelm central bank efforts to prop markets up, I would like to see the 7 year cycle low complete its mission and at least test the 200 week average.
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Monday, November 16, 2015
Is the Stock Market Ready to Rally Now? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Brad_Gudgeon
The last time I wrote, I said I was looking for a bottom in the US stock market around the 12th of November. I honestly thought we would pull back harder than we have. As of Friday November 13th, the SPX has tagged the .382 Fibonacci retracement of the September 29-November 3rd rally near 2022, less than a 5% pull back.
The chart below explains why I believe we have bottomed or are close to bottoming. The cycles suggest a rally into around November 25 from here. I don't know if this will be a failing rally or a new recovery high is on the way. After Thanksgiving we should have another pull back into early December to satisfy the 7/14 week low.
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Sunday, November 15, 2015
Stock Market Looking For A (Temporary?) Low / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market
Intermediate trend – SPX has resumed its uptrend in order to complete the last phase of the bull market.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses longer market trends.
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Sunday, November 15, 2015
Stock Market - Another Brutal Monday / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: John_Rubino
One of the challenges of managing money is the (increasingly-frequent) need to translate non-financial tragedies into action to protect clients and, yes, profit from the broader world’s horror.
So while most people react to events in Paris with stunned sympathy and/or impotent rage, the financial community is deciding what to buy and sell. And right now it looks like “sell” is winning.
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Saturday, November 14, 2015
S&P 2020 Critical....Is Stocks Bear Market Already Here? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
If we look at this market we can see the S&P 500 has lost all of its moving averages, although the 200- and 50-day exponential moving averages are right above today's close. They are both at 2037, so we can still get back fairly easily with one small rally. The problem is directly below. If we visit the S&P 500 daily chart we can see that on September 17 of this year we touched 2020, and then immediately tailed off and fell hard, all the way down to 1871. From there the market rallied once again, and hit 2020 for four candle sticks before finally breaking out. Once it broke out it back tested again with four candle sticks. A breakout then occurred, thus, 2020 is critically important support. Losing 2020 by a few points is not a breakdown, but you get the idea. You don't want to lose 2020 with force.
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Saturday, November 14, 2015
Discussion of the Stock Market Wave Formation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
It appears that SPX has stopped declining so far at the hourly Cycle Bottom support. It may now be challenging the Broadening Top trendline at 2045.00 from beneath. This may be a sub-Minute Wave (iv) of a Minute Wave [iii], which suggests a further decline to either the 50-day Moving Average at 2007.51 or to Round Number support at 2000.00.
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Friday, November 13, 2015
Stock Market Make or Break, Is the US Heading Towards Recession? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Puru_Saxena
The global economy is slowing down rapidly and it is conceivable that the developed world may face a recession next year. Already, the Japanese economy is contracting and even Europe is barely growing. Across the pond, the US is still muddling through but the leading economic indicators and all the major Fed regional activity surveys (Figure 1) are suggesting economic weakness ahead.
Friday, November 13, 2015
Inspiration from the World of Sports for Sucessful Investing / Stock-Markets / Investing 2015
By: John_Mauldin
One of the most successful investors in the world is Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management. One of the things I look forward to every quarter is the letter he writes to his clients – it goes right to the top of my reading list. Not only is it always full of generally brilliant investment counsel, Howard is also a really great writer. He has an easy style that pulls you through his letter effortlessly.
I have never sent his letter to you as an Outside the Box, as the copies I get are clearly watermarked and copyrighted. So I was surprised and delighted to learn that the letter is free when I listened to a speech by Howard in which he encouraged everyone to get it. Unlike another hundred-billion-dollar hedge fund company that shall go unnamed, Oaktree evidently thinks that brilliance should be shared.
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Friday, November 13, 2015
US Stock Market: Anatomy of a Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Gary_Tanashian
Over the last week we (NFTRH) have used market sentiment indicators and index charts to gauge the prospects of finding a high on the post-September relief ‘bounce’ rally.
During August and September market sentiment had become brutally over bearish and this was very dangerous from the bears’ perspective. We set upside bounce targets for the SPX at 2020, 2040, 2060 and 2100. The first three were resistance levels (broken support) and the last was the general measurement of the ‘W’ bottom that formed in August and September. With the extremes in bearish sentiment, it was not so surprising that SPX climbed all the way to just above 2100.
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