Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Stock Market 20-Day Back-Test Failure.....2020 Getting Closer.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

The market is slowly, but surely, turning. We haven't taken out 2020 on the S&P 500, yet, so there's nothing to get bearish about. But you can see the subtle changes. The market head faked the masses today as these markets tend to do by blasting, and I mean blasting, up and through the 20-day exponential moving average. The bulls are in full control, or so it seemed. That's when a tiring market, such as we have kicked in, and left the buying bulls feeling bad about those purchases. About chasing the rally. The market fell, and fell hard, initially letting the bulls know they had made an error in their constant bullish behavior. A swift move below the 20's, and the selling was on. It's always about knowing where you are in the market in terms of bull, bear, or agnostic. Then you have to determine if the agnostic market is really a market sending a new message.

Wednesday, December 09, 2015

Stock Market Panic Decline May Have Begun / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

We didn’t have long to wait for the sell signal. At 2058.00. The interesting part is that the 50-day Moving Average is now at 2051.80.

The Orthodox Broadening Top trendline is at 2045.00 and the 2-hour Cycle Bottom is at 2042.45, which have also been violated. Beneath that is a lot of air, which strongly suggests a panic decline.

Wednesday, December 09, 2015

Buckle Up, It’s Very Likely the Bull Market in Stocks is Over / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Graham_Summers

As I warned last week… it’s very likely that the Bull Market in stocks is over.

Stocks have broken their bull market trendline. Not only that, but they’ve been rejected by this line TWICE, indicating that the momentum is GONE.

The next move will be SHARPLY DOWN.

Wednesday, December 09, 2015

Stock Market Testing the Limits of the Diamond Formation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX bounced from the lower trendline of its Diamond formation at 2056.00 this morning and is probing the 2-hour mid-Cycle resistance and the upper trendline at 2080.00. So far, the peak appears to be 2080.33, but it doesn’t appear to have broken the trendline. The top view is that the probe may be over and we may see a break at the bottom trendline soon. The trendline is now at 2058.00. While the Diamond formation has its own sell signal at 2058.00, the “official” sell signal is still at the 200day Moving Average at 2065.00.

Wednesday, December 09, 2015

SPX May Have a Diamond Formation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

It appears that SPX is forming a Diamond formation that implies at least a 205 decline from the lower trendline. The Diamond trendline may be broken at 2056.00. Tomorrow is the next Pivot day, so I would anticipate the formation to be triggered then.

Tuesday, December 08, 2015

Unwinding Carry Trades and Unintended Consequences / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: Michael_Pento

The European Central Bank under the auspices of Mario Draghi has created a market destabilizing condition known as the euro carry trade. Mr. Draghi recently telegraphed to the markets a more aggressive attack on the value of the currency heading into the ECB meeting held on December 3rd. In fact, he went on record saying the ECB’s imperative is to, “Do what we must to create inflation as quickly as possible.” Because Draghi promised to destroy the euro at an even quicker pace than it was already falling, financial institutions front ran the ECB’s increased bid for bonds and equities, sending these prices soaring in the weeks prior to the meeting.

Tuesday, December 08, 2015

Stock Market Investor Sentiment / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Ed_Carlson

Technicians typically look for signs of excess bullishness or bearishness in sentiment polls to conclude markets have swung too far in one direction or the other. An extreme in bullishness is often followed by a decline in equities and an extreme in bearishness is often followed by a rally.

Tuesday, December 08, 2015

SPX challenging the 200-day Moving Average / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The SPX Premarket is down approximately 1% and appears to be resting just above the 200-day Moving Average at 2064.60.

The catalyst may be China. ZeroHedge reports, “Over the weekend, in its latest quarterly presentation, the Bank of International Settlements made what may have been a very premature assessment that China is now contained. To wit:

In October, equity markets staged a remarkable recovery, recording their strongest one-month gain in recent years. Market nerves were partly calmed by receding fears over tail risk in China. The improvement was broad-based. European and American stocks recouped nearly all losses experienced in the third quarter, while China’s stocks also made up some lost ground

Tuesday, December 08, 2015

Draghi Leaves Financial Markets Hungry For More QE / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: Sam_Kirtley

The most significant event for the markets last week was Draghi disappointing markets that were eager for an increase in ECB QE. Instead, the ECB President cut the deposit rate by 10 basis points to -0.30% and extended the current easing measures to March 2017, and beyond if necessary. Markets saw this action as insufficient with expectations across the board being that the ECB would sizeably increase their current easing measures, rather than just extend them. This was shown be clear declines in both stocks and bond prices, as well as a significant rally in the Euro.

Tuesday, December 08, 2015

Stock Market Reversing Lower....Range Bound....2020 and 2116 Is The Game / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

Just when it felt as if all was good with Friday's big upside stick things turned right around today and headed lower with force. Not as bad as Friday was good, but a nasty reversal. More importantly, it stopped the big move up dead in its tracks. No follow-through, which is what you get in an ending bull market. But again, that still doesn't mean we won't try higher again and again for weeks or months to come. It's just that this is the type of action you see near long-term tops. Lots of head fakes both ways. No one thought we wouldn't follow through today, or at worst, pull back gently to work off some overbought, sixty-minute, index-stochastic readings. The mood wasn't one that was about getting smoked after such perfect candle sticks on Friday, but the bulls were dealt a technical blow today with the gap down and run.

Monday, December 07, 2015

Stock Market Santa Rally 2015 to New All Time Highs - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It's Déjà Vu for the stock market following another bumper US Jobs report of +211k that beat the academic economist average expectations of 180k that follows hot on the heels of the November US Jobs positive surprise that once more prompted the consensus to quickly conclude that a Fed December US interest rate hike was a near certainty and likely to result in strongly negative consequences for stocks.

Monday, December 07, 2015

The Fed is About to Trigger a $9 Trillion Debt Implosion / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: Graham_Summers

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) have created a very dangerous situation.

Throughout the last six years, there has been a sense of coordination between the Fed and ECB. This was evident both in terms of where capital went as well as how it was delivered via monetary policy.

Monday, December 07, 2015

Stock Market Sell Signals Developing... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX has declined through Short-term support, 2-hour mid-Cycle support and hourly mid-Cycle support to give it a sell signal again. Further confirmation may come beneath the 200-day Moving Average at 2064.56.

My new Wave count appears not to be valid. This market has whip-sawed the best and I am not exempt. However, the support/resistance levels still play an important role in determining the market direction.

Monday, December 07, 2015

Nasdaq and NYSE Index Pointing to Higher Market Prices for 2016 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Sol_Palha

"Don't ever take a fence down until you know why it was put up." ~ Robert Frost

We have seen the same song sung over and over again by the Doctors of Doom; the markets are going to crash, the world is going to come to an end, or some other pretentious title. Let's cut to the chase, the markets are not going to crash; they could experience a strong correction at some future date but that would just present you with another opportunity to buy quality stocks. Could the markets crash? That is a possibility, but you could kick the bucket before the event plays out the way the naysayers have envisioned. In fact, one could go as far as to state that there has never been a real market crash in the true sense of the word and that every so-called crash event was nothing but a buying opportunity in disguise. Crash or correction is a matter of perspective and that perspective depends on where you boarded the train; if you got in towards the end of the ride, then it will certainly feel like a crash. We will examine this concept in more detail in a follow-up article.

Monday, December 07, 2015

The NYA Index is in a Triangular Pattern ... Very Close to a Breakout / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Marty_Chenard

A money battle is going on as Inflowing Liquidity levels are trying to keep the market up and Institutional Investors are resisting by staying in low Distribution and not taking Inflowing Liquidity's direction yet.

This should be a volatile week with higher than normal risk levels.

Monday, December 07, 2015

Soros' Financial Markets Reflexivity Gone Too Far / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Evidence of Soros' Theory of Reflexivity remaining prevalent in financial markets re-emerged this week as the euro made its biggest single day advance since the Fed's announcement of QE in 2009. Simply put, the euro soared 4% due to misplaced and unfulfilled market expectations that the ECB would increase the size of its monthly asset purchases. The crowding out of euro-short algos was pivotal in the magnitude of the resulting short squeeze. But questioning the intensity of euro shorts deserves more time and attention than criticizing or doubting a central banker's decision.

Monday, December 07, 2015

Stocks Retraced Thursday's Decline - New Rally or More Sideways Action? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,140 and profit target at 1,990, S&P 500 index)

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:

Monday, December 07, 2015

Will The Fed Hurt The S&P 500? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Stock markets have had a very interesting year in 2015, and many investors have viewed some of the activity with a high degree of skepticism and uncertainty.  There are good reasons for this, as it has been very difficult to assess whether or not the US Federal Reserve is actually prepared to start raising interest rates.  Without solid information in this area, it can be difficult to start identify the true directional trend that is present in the market.  Luckily for investors, these scenarios have started to change. 

Monday, December 07, 2015

Shaking the Stock Market Bush / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Rambus_Chartology

First I would like to apologize for not having any posts on Friday as I had a previous commitment made several weeks ago. I told Fullgoldcrown Thursday night, of all the days to miss work it would have to be Friday. That’s one of the reasons I exited the stock market trades as I know how volatile these 3 X etf’s can be and with the numbers coming out Friday morning I wanted to play it safe right or wrong.

All in all we had some pretty interesting price action in the stock markets on Friday that was very positive. Lets start by looking at the INDU which I’ve been showing a H&S consolidation pattern forming. Thursday’s the price action closed below the 200 dma which is another reason I exited the stock market trades but Friday’s rally closed the day just below of the neckline and back above the 200 dma. What I find interesting is Thursday’s low was a reverse symmetry low taken from the left shoulder’s higher low on the far left hand side of the chart that matches the higher right shoulder low on the right side of the chart, Friday’s price action. We now have two neckline symmetry lines. The neckline symmetry lines are just parallel lines taken from the big neckline that sometimes shows us where to look for the lows for the right shoulders. So at this point the reverse symmetry is as pretty as it gets as shown by the S’s.

Monday, December 07, 2015

Wild Week for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market

Intermediate trend - SPX has resumed its uptrend in order to complete the last phase of the bull market.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.