Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
Is a Major Stock Market Top Forming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Harry_Dent
I warned in early October that stocks looked like they were setting up for another sharp crash into the height of the “crash season” in mid-October.Instead, we got rate cuts in China, rumblings of stronger QE in Europe, and a continued rally at home.
In other words – central banks delayed the inevitable. Again.
So let’s look at where the markets are today…
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Tuesday, November 17, 2015
SPX Probing at the 200-day Moving Average / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX ramped above the Broadening Top lower trendline in the final hour of yesterday’s session. The SPX Premarket is up about 5 points as I write, but still beneath its ultimate resistances, the daily mid-Cycle resistance at 2061.97 and the 200-day Moving Average at 2064.38.
Today and tomorrow are both Pivot days. Tomorrow is the stronger one. I had originally surmised that tomorrow would be a low with a ramp into options expiration. The timing of this retracement changes things, with potentially devastating consequences. A decline through options expiration would certainly magnify the volatility during such an event.
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Tuesday, November 17, 2015
Terrorism.... Weakening Economy... Stock Market Finally Bounces.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
It's old. It's boring. It's pathetic. It's inhuman. It's a lot more than all of that, but what's left to say that hasn't already been said. Terrorism is a sad reality in our world, and will likely never go away in our lifetime, or the lifetime of many generations to come. It seems to be in the DNA of humanity. We had a very sad display of terrorism late Friday night in Paris. Too many perished on suicide bombings. A terrible act toward human life, unfortunately. We're in the business of the stock market, and, of course, the initial reaction of the market was to blast lower after hours on Friday. The S&P 500 was down as many as seventeen points, with fair value included. With the market hanging on by a thread at key, 2020 support on the S&P 500, things looked really bad for the bulls. When terrorism happens a day, or so, when the market is closed, often times the futures start coming back up as the world has grown sadly used to this type of behavior.
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Monday, November 16, 2015
Bond Traders have not been this Short Since Early 2010 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
ZeroHedge reports, “Bond traders have not been this speculatively short Treasuries since early 2010. Since The Fed turned uber hawkish at the last FOMC, and convinced the market that it will raise rates in December - despite dismally dropping data everywhere, speculators have drastically increased their short positions across the entire Treasury spectrum. The last time the world was this short Treasuries, the 10Y yield collapsed from 3.94% to 2.39% in just 3 months.”
Monday, November 16, 2015
Markets Reacting to Paris Attack 'Rationally': Asness / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
By: Bloomberg
Cliff Asness of AQR Capital Management, joined Stephanie Ruhle, David Westin and Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg TV's new flagship morning program, Bloomberg <GO>. He discussed market reaction to the Paris terror attacks and the use of long-term investing to overcome risks.
ERIK SCHATZKER: As I mentioned moments ago, Cliff Asness of AQR is here. Cliff, if we could begin with a little bit on the way investors tend to think about events like the terrorist attacks in Paris on Friday, Matt showed us that things haven't really moved that much. And frankly if you look at the historic record, things don't move that much over time after these horrible incidents. So, again, as the investor, as a man who sits on top of $135 billion and, granted, not all of your strategies would speak to this, why is that the case?
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Monday, November 16, 2015
Stock Market Building Selling Pressure / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Gary_Savage
Playing devils advocate and assuming the selling pressure is strong enough to overwhelm central bank efforts to prop markets up, I would like to see the 7 year cycle low complete its mission and at least test the 200 week average.
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Monday, November 16, 2015
Is the Stock Market Ready to Rally Now? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Brad_Gudgeon
The last time I wrote, I said I was looking for a bottom in the US stock market around the 12th of November. I honestly thought we would pull back harder than we have. As of Friday November 13th, the SPX has tagged the .382 Fibonacci retracement of the September 29-November 3rd rally near 2022, less than a 5% pull back.
The chart below explains why I believe we have bottomed or are close to bottoming. The cycles suggest a rally into around November 25 from here. I don't know if this will be a failing rally or a new recovery high is on the way. After Thanksgiving we should have another pull back into early December to satisfy the 7/14 week low.
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Sunday, November 15, 2015
Stock Market Looking For A (Temporary?) Low / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market
Intermediate trend – SPX has resumed its uptrend in order to complete the last phase of the bull market.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses longer market trends.
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Sunday, November 15, 2015
Stock Market - Another Brutal Monday / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: John_Rubino
One of the challenges of managing money is the (increasingly-frequent) need to translate non-financial tragedies into action to protect clients and, yes, profit from the broader world’s horror.
So while most people react to events in Paris with stunned sympathy and/or impotent rage, the financial community is deciding what to buy and sell. And right now it looks like “sell” is winning.
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Saturday, November 14, 2015
S&P 2020 Critical....Is Stocks Bear Market Already Here? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
If we look at this market we can see the S&P 500 has lost all of its moving averages, although the 200- and 50-day exponential moving averages are right above today's close. They are both at 2037, so we can still get back fairly easily with one small rally. The problem is directly below. If we visit the S&P 500 daily chart we can see that on September 17 of this year we touched 2020, and then immediately tailed off and fell hard, all the way down to 1871. From there the market rallied once again, and hit 2020 for four candle sticks before finally breaking out. Once it broke out it back tested again with four candle sticks. A breakout then occurred, thus, 2020 is critically important support. Losing 2020 by a few points is not a breakdown, but you get the idea. You don't want to lose 2020 with force.
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Saturday, November 14, 2015
Discussion of the Stock Market Wave Formation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
It appears that SPX has stopped declining so far at the hourly Cycle Bottom support. It may now be challenging the Broadening Top trendline at 2045.00 from beneath. This may be a sub-Minute Wave (iv) of a Minute Wave [iii], which suggests a further decline to either the 50-day Moving Average at 2007.51 or to Round Number support at 2000.00.
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Friday, November 13, 2015
Stock Market Make or Break, Is the US Heading Towards Recession? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Puru_Saxena
The global economy is slowing down rapidly and it is conceivable that the developed world may face a recession next year. Already, the Japanese economy is contracting and even Europe is barely growing. Across the pond, the US is still muddling through but the leading economic indicators and all the major Fed regional activity surveys (Figure 1) are suggesting economic weakness ahead.
Friday, November 13, 2015
Inspiration from the World of Sports for Sucessful Investing / Stock-Markets / Investing 2015
By: John_Mauldin
One of the most successful investors in the world is Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management. One of the things I look forward to every quarter is the letter he writes to his clients – it goes right to the top of my reading list. Not only is it always full of generally brilliant investment counsel, Howard is also a really great writer. He has an easy style that pulls you through his letter effortlessly.
I have never sent his letter to you as an Outside the Box, as the copies I get are clearly watermarked and copyrighted. So I was surprised and delighted to learn that the letter is free when I listened to a speech by Howard in which he encouraged everyone to get it. Unlike another hundred-billion-dollar hedge fund company that shall go unnamed, Oaktree evidently thinks that brilliance should be shared.
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Friday, November 13, 2015
US Stock Market: Anatomy of a Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Gary_Tanashian
Over the last week we (NFTRH) have used market sentiment indicators and index charts to gauge the prospects of finding a high on the post-September relief ‘bounce’ rally.
During August and September market sentiment had become brutally over bearish and this was very dangerous from the bears’ perspective. We set upside bounce targets for the SPX at 2020, 2040, 2060 and 2100. The first three were resistance levels (broken support) and the last was the general measurement of the ‘W’ bottom that formed in August and September. With the extremes in bearish sentiment, it was not so surprising that SPX climbed all the way to just above 2100.
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Thursday, November 12, 2015
Stock Market Breakdown / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
My start this morning was delayed due to a late work night and early morning dentist’s appointment. I have more activities planned for the day, so my reportage may be spotty.
However, there is good news for our bearish positions this morning. SPX broke down as anticipated with a 2.5 point gap which suggests that selling pressure overwhelmed the always bullish HFTs this morning.
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Thursday, November 12, 2015
Stock Market Very Negative Close / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices had a volatile session today. They popped at the opening, 3-wave, corrective pullback ensued, then they had a very strong rally midday that led to the session highs just under 4680 Nasdaq 100, and 2987 S&P 500. They came down in a 3-wave decline near the close, and then rolled over into the close to cement the negative close for the day.
Thursday, November 12, 2015
Global Stocks Bull Market Breadth / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Donald_W_Dony
Strong bull markets normally have a broad participation or breadth base. When that breadth starts to narrow, the short-term outlook for a continuation of the upward trend comes into question.
Thursday, November 12, 2015
Stock Market Trying To Unwind.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
would allow for another move higher once the stochastic's and MACD have moved low enough. Nothing impulsive as the market sells, which is key to understanding what type of selling is taking place. Whether it's truly bearish selling or the type of selling that will allow for the markets to try higher once again in time. So far the bulls have to like the process, but it shouldn't be over quite yet. While we can still rally some, the process of moving lower should still have some decent energy left.
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Wednesday, November 11, 2015
SPX is Challenging Short-term Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX Premarket appears to be challenging Short-term resistance at 2085.85. The futures were higher, but the retracement appears to be complete and SPX is backing away from its before-hours highs. The futures often have a different shape than the cash markets, but essentially the same overriding Wave pattern. The Wave pattern appears to be in need of another probe higher.
Tuesday, November 10, 2015
What is Needed for a Stocks Bear Market Scenario / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Wave (i) is jumbled and overlapping, but there are 5 clear waves. Leading Diagonal Waves may account for that. Wave (iii) is cleaner and a bit more convincing as an impulse. However, what we don’t want to see is Wave (iv) overlapping Wave (i) at 2083.74. Wave (iv appears to be an a-b-c correction. Wave a went to 2083.09, while Wave c went to 2083.67. An impulsive decline without overlapping 2083.74 with a bounce to the vicinity of Short-term resistance at 2086.85 would be needed to set up the bear market,
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