Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Zero Follow-Through For The Bulls....Banks Under Severe Pressure....Oil Slammed Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

Friday is looking more and more as if it were simply one of those bear-market rally days from deeply oversold conditions. The only problem being it wasn't that great of an up day. The real powerful, bear-market rally days can be up 2.5% to 3% in a single day. Friday was nice, but far from that type of day thus it seemed as if more upside was likely short-term. Not to be. The market started out down some and tried to fight to green before the bears came in and took it back down. The market stayed down for the better part of the day, but what was most important was how we finished.

Monday, January 25, 2016

Lifting Sanctions on Iran a Mixed Bag / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: John_Browne

From a financial perspective, the New Year has been anything but happy. As of January 20th, the S&P had fallen over 9% since the beginning of the year, to levels not seen since 2014,reflecting a loss of some $2 trillion in market value. Compounding matters was the 30% collapse in oil prices, which brought crude down to the lowest levels in 13 years. The New Year has also seen further evidence of recession in the U.S., which has appeared in a string of bad manufacturing service sector data.

Monday, January 25, 2016

Money Mind Games, Futures, and the Future / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Doug_Wakefield

“In markets, usually when you see massive buying and selling and people piling into trades, it is time to step back, get some perspective, and let the move play out before jumping in or out one way or the other. As we know, trades can get very crowded and almost too tempting to resist.” – Mind, Money & Markets, Dr. Janice Dorn, pg 47

“Reaction to the FOMC news was instant. Within a thousandth of a second, the move was already over. Trades in 8,000 NMS stocks. Nothing to buy after a few milliseconds.” – Buy All The Stocks Now!, Nanex Research, Sept 18, 2013

Monday, January 25, 2016

Stock Market Premarket is Lower / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX Premarket is down below 1900.00, eliminating possible round number support. It is still hard to say whether it has completed Wave 2 in its entirety or Wave [a] of 2, leaving a retest of the Cycle Bottom before rising in [c] of 2. Even it Wave 2 goes higher, taking profits and going short got the most of the rally with a small upside risk that may not last more than a day.

Monday, January 25, 2016

Stock Market SP500 Above 1,900 Mark Again, New Uptrend or Just a Bounce? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish, as the S&P 500 index extends its lower highs, lower lows sequence. However, we decided to change our long-term outlook to neutral recently, following recent move down below medium-term lows:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Monday, January 25, 2016

Stock Market Bottoming Out or the Last Bull Standing? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market has rallied to back over 16k on Friday, closing at 16,093, up 210 points on the day, which apparently according to the bear market doom and gloom growing consensus must be the first bear market counter-trend rally of 2016. Whilst my consistent view to the continence of many has been that the stock market is undergoing an extreme correction which this interim analysis seeks to evaluate ahead of my in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecast for probably the whole of the remainder of 2016.

Monday, January 25, 2016

Leading indicator “Bonds” Suggests More Time before Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Every crash was preceded with the 10 year minus the 3 month Bond Yields dropping towards the zero line. Although the equity markets have crashed, the bond markets are still not displaying any signs of panic. This tells us the market must continue to fall until the percent return is around the zero mark.

Thinking of this logically, it makes sense. Investors when scare start moving more and more of their capital in to safer investments, like bonds. Eventually there is a change in this perception, which occurs when bonds are not paying anything in return. That is when investors say enough is enough, and start taking risk and start moving back into the stock market.

Monday, January 25, 2016

Counter Trend Rally in a Stocks Bear Market, GDX Low Near? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

January 20th may have been an important intermediate bottom in the stock market, but the bear market is still growling. January 20th was exactly 100 trading days from the August 24th low. The 100 trading low has a variance of 15%. Oddly, the 16 TD low, which arrived on January 11 is still due in early February along with a Bradley turn (Feb 3-5). The next top of import is due January 25 with the moon in Leo/Virgo. It is also the 16 trading top +1 TD. Last moon cycles saw the market run down 8 TD's to the moon in Sag/Cap (due Feb 4th). January 26 and 27 have the moon in Virgo, so at least those days should be down. Feb 1 is another day which should be down based on the negative astros on Jan 29 and over the weekend.

Monday, January 25, 2016

Where Is The Stock Market Turmoil Taking Us? - Audio / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: John_Rubino

On Monday, stocks tanked around the world and so did oil, breaking $27. On Tuesday things looked better. Central banks were jawboning, with Mario Draghi making noises about intervening. The Chinese were also busy buying stocks. The true test is when the banks really start intervening and whether they will be able to reflate another cycle. At some point this strategy is bound to fail. Will it be now or the next time? That past couple of weeks have seen a very brutal bear market. If you look at the average stock, it has lost more than 20 percent. Sounds like a bear market in the making with tech stocks leading the way.

Sunday, January 24, 2016

Stock Market Counter Trend Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend - Severe correction underway.

SPX: Intermediate trend - counter-trend rally!

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Sunday, January 24, 2016

Is the Stock Market Bottom In? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Graham_Summers

Stocks are rallying this morning.

They are not rallying because of a change in fundamentals.

They are not rallying because of a significant debt restructuring.

Sunday, January 24, 2016

Financial Collapse 2016 - Could This Be “The Big One”? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Mike_Whitney

Everyone take a deep breath. This isn’t 2007 again.  The banks aren’t loaded with $10 trillion in “toxic” mortgage-backed securities, the housing market hasn’t fallen off a cliff wiping out $8 trillion in home equity, and the world is not on the brink of another excruciating financial meltdown.  The reason the markets have been gyrating so furiously for the last couple weeks is because stocks are vastly overpriced, corporate earnings are shrinking, and the Fed is threatening to take away the punch bowl. And to top it all off, a sizable number of investors have more skin in the game than they can afford, so they had to dump shares pronto to rebalance their portfolios.

Sunday, January 24, 2016

Charting The Stock Market Crash - How Far Will The Bounce Get?... / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Clive_Maund

The purpose of this update is to define exactly where we are on the market clock, because if we know where we are, broadly speaking we will know where we are going.

Before going any further I want to point out that so far we have tracked this nascent market crash well, first looking for the market to cave in last Summer, in the Preparing for the Crash series, calling for the Biotech sector to plunge before Christmas in Biotech Inverse ETFs update – Perfect Entry Point for New Shorts, for China to crater at the end of December in the China update and more recently calling for a waterfall decline in the US stockmarket right at the start of the year in Broad US Stockmarket Still Perched Atop a Cliff

Sunday, January 24, 2016

First Uptrend of Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Tony_Caldaro

The week started off at SPX 1880. After a Monday holiday the market gapped up to SPX 1901 on Tuesday, and then immediately headed lower. On Wednesday the market gapped down at the open, hit a new low for the downtrend at SPX 1812, and then began to rally. The rally continued through Thursday and Friday with the SPX clearing 1900, and ending the week at 1907. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.05%, the NDX/NAZ gained 2.60%, and the DJ World gained 0.90%. Economic reports for the week were mostly negative. On the uptick: existing homes sales and the Q4 GDP estimate. On the downtick: the NAHB, CPI, housing starts, building permits, leading indicators, the WLEI, the Philly FED, plus weekly jobless claims rose. Next week the FED meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and we get our first look at Q4 GDP.

Saturday, January 23, 2016

Finally, Some Stock Market Buying....What Is It Telling Us?......Scenarios Discussed... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

What's unique about the stock market is its unpredictable nature. We're always trying to understand the message being sent through the oscillators along with price action. What is it saying! It can be very confusing and always emotional. Is it only a correction within a bigger picture bull market that's still on going? Is this a counter-trend rally that will fail on a weekly basis below the uptrend line at 1935? Will it head fake well above 1935 only to close back below on a weekly basis? It's really hard to know what's taking place when the move off then top has never shown classic bear-market distribution on any of the key daily index charts.

Saturday, January 23, 2016

Chronicle Of A Debt Foretold - When Central Banks Buy Equities / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: John_Rubino

Critics of today’s fiat currency/fractional reserve banking world have (for what seems like forever) made the common sense point that when debt rises faster than cash flow, bad things are bound to happen. In every cycle since 1980 this has been dismissed by the vast majority who benefit from inflating bubbles — until the bubble bursts.

Saturday, January 23, 2016

Yield Curve, 2016 Predictions - “There is No Wizard Behind the Curtain!” / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Gordon_T_Long

FRA Co-Founder Gordon T. Long discusses with Global Macro CME Floor Trader Yra Harris, the difficulties of investing in the currently suppressed global market. Yra has been a member of the CME since 1977 and is a well-known global macro trader. Yra currently works with Vine Street trading.

Saturday, January 23, 2016

What is Happening to Stock Market Inflowing Liquidity? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Marty_Chenard

The old saying is that "Money makes the world go round." It doesn't stop there ... money also makes the stock market go up or down.

As Jesse Livermore said in the 20's ... "The stock market is all about money. If money goes in, the stock market goes up. If money goes out, the stock market goes down."

Friday, January 22, 2016

Square Holes and Currency Pegs / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Raul_I_Meijer

When David Bowie died, everybody, in what they wrote and said, seemed to feel they owned him, and owned his death, even if they hadn’t thought about him, or listened to him, for years. In the same vein, though the Automatic Earth has been talking about deflation (for 8 years, it’s our anniversary today) and the looming China Ponzi disaster for a long time, now that these things actually play out, everybody talks as if they own the story, and present it as new (because, for one thing, well, after all for them it is new…).

Friday, January 22, 2016

Japanese Nikkei Stocks Bear Market is Over / Stock-Markets / Japanese Stock Market

By: Austin_Galt

The Japanese stock market, the Nikkei, looks like it may have completed its bear market yesterday at the 16017 quote which was just over 23% down from the previous high. Let’s take a bottom up approach to the analysis beginning with the daily chart.