Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, September 19, 2016

Stock Market Positive Expectations Following Last Week's Uncertainty, But Will Stocks Continue Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is now neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Monday, September 19, 2016

More Stock Market Selling Monday? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

It looks like that we should have more selling early Monday in the stock market according to the extremes of the 4 TD low combined with the current bearish wave action and negative astros. There is a rising wedge that meets near 2110 Monday. I'm not sure we tag that or not, but in any case there should be a strong rally Monday out of this sell-off according to the cycles.

Sunday, September 18, 2016

Stock Market Correction Already Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: The long-term trend is up but weakening.  Potential final phase of bull market.

SPX Intermediate trend:  The uptrend from 1810 continues, but it has entered a corrective phase.

 Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Saturday, September 17, 2016

New US Stock Market Uptrend Underway ? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Tony_Caldaro

The week started with the SPX at 2128. After a gap down opening Monday the SPX hit 2119 then rallied to 2163 just before the close. On Tuesday another gap down opening took the SPX to 2120, then after a rally to 2141 on Wednesday the SPX hit 2120 again. On Thursday the SPX rallied to 2151, then gapped down again on Friday to 2131 before ending the week at 2139. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.60%. Three gap down openings and the market ended positive on the week. Economic reports for the week were predominantly negative. On the downtick: export prices, retail sales, NY FED, industrial production, capacity utilization, the Q3 GDP estimate, plus weekly jobless claims and the budget deficit increased. On the uptick: the Philly FED and the CPI. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC and housing.

Saturday, September 17, 2016

Fed Huffing and Puffing / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: David_Chapman

Over the past few weeks a number of Fed officials, including Fed Chair Janet Yellen, have mused about an interest rate hike at the September FOMC that takes place next week, on September 20-21, 2016. The interest rate decision comes out around 2 p.m. on September 21. It will be a much-watched announcement. Stocks, bonds and precious metals markets all reacted negatively to the musings when the fourth Fed official (including Yellen) since August 2016 mused about a hike. Despite labour numbers that appear to point to decent economic growth and an inflation rate (PCE Inflation) that hovers below the Fed’s target of 2%, the overall picture is not one of economic strength, with many indicators and numbers actually pointed down.

Saturday, September 17, 2016

Stock Market Quiet Week...Volatile But Quiet... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

The week was wild, but quiet when all was said and done. Last Friday saw a strong move lower with no follow-through to the down side this week by the bears. Nothing unusual about that. The bears haven't followed through meaningfully in longer than I can remember. That said, this week saw the market move mostly lateral, meaning the bulls didn't just blast things right back up as they usually do with no resistance from the bears. The bears are fighting a little bit. More than we've seen in recent months.

Saturday, September 17, 2016

Stocks and Bonds - The Central Bankers' Experiment: The Great Bust / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Doug_Wakefield

The public enthusiasm, which had been so long rising, could not resist a vision so splendid. At least three hundred thousand applications were made of the fifty thousand new shares, and Law's house in the Rue de Quincampoix was beset from morning to night by the eager applicants."

The quote above is from McKay's classic, Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, found in the first chapter, "Money Mania – The Mississippi Scheme". The Mississippi Scheme reached its final "all time high" in January 1720, and Mackay wrote about this madness in 1841.

Saturday, September 17, 2016

SPX Sell Signals Are Intact / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX is struggling to make a 50% retracement of this morning’s decline. It appears complete, but we cannot rule out an algo attack in the final minutes. SPX remains on a sell signal.

Friday, September 16, 2016

The Financial Crisis Is Escalating! / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are presently in the process of merger talks. The fact that these meetings are occurring is a signal that Germany’s banking troubles are indeed accelerating.

Friday, September 16, 2016

Italy Is the Mother of All Systemic Threats / Stock-Markets / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Italy has been in a crisis for at least eight months, though mainstream media did not recognize it until July. This crisis has nothing to do with Brexit, although opponents of Brexit will claim it does. Even if Britain had voted to stay in the EU, the Italian crisis would still have been gathering speed.

The high level of non-performing loans (NPLs) has been a problem since before Brexit. It is clear that there is nothing in the Italian economy that can reduce them. Only a dramatic improvement in the economy would make it possible to repay these loans. And Europe’s economy cannot improve drastically enough to help. We have been in crisis for quite a while.

Friday, September 16, 2016

These 3 Investments Are the Plays to Make During Recession / Stock-Markets / Investing 2016

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON: The global economy is stuck in neutral in spite of the “whatever it takes” efforts of central bankers.

The eventual fallout from near zero or even negative interest rates is a huge unknown. Given the lack of historical precedent, even the best and brightest market observers admit it’s hard to create useful macroeconomic models.

Friday, September 16, 2016

Another Billionaire Warns of Catastrophic Depths Not Seen in 5,000 Years – and Emphasizes Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Jeff_Berwick

In past issues, we’ve documented increasingly concerned billionaires warning of dangerous economic times. Many have favored gold as an alternative allocation in a world where $13 trillion-worth of debt is negative yielding, interest rates are artificially suppressed and we’re on the brink of major wars.

The newest addition to this gold-loving billionaire’s club, is none other than hedge-fund manager Paul Singer. At CNBC’s Delivering Alpha Investors Conference this week, the founder of the $27-billion Elliott Management Fund, the 17th largest hedge fund in the world, mentioned that at current prices gold is “undervalued” and “underrepresented in many portfolios as the only … store of value that has stood the test of time.”

Friday, September 16, 2016

Is The SPX Stock Market Top Finally In? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The market is EXTREMELY oversold and is not yet in the Trending Mode!  Therefore, with NO CONFIRMED Trend and oversold momentum oscillators, the market should bounce back, early this week.  The SPX was in a Bollinger Band Squeeze for 5-6 weeks, but finally broke down, last Friday, September 9^th, 2016.  Every asset class was down.  This is NOT “buy the bounce” situation.

Friday, September 16, 2016

Stock Market Seatbelts Buckled? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX continued its retracement to the 76.78% retracement level, very close to the 78.6% Fib retracement. The stopper appears to be the lower trendline of the Orthodox Broadening Top. This potentially adds validity to the formation and indicates a panic decline to its Average Target.

The average decline from the bottom trendline is 23%, while the majority of those declines are usually 20% or more.

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Next Financial Crisis Will be Far Worse than 2008/09 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We are living in “extraordinary” times, which will end with unpleasant consequences. The world is looking towards the Central Banks to sort out these problems, whereas, the Central Banks are clueless about how to handle this situation.

Never in history has the world seen 30% of global government debt at “negative yields”. This is an experiment, which is unlikely to end with a good result.

Thursday, September 15, 2016

3 Clear Signs the US Stock Market Is Doomed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: John_Mauldin

BY TONY SAGAMI : The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been going sideways ever since the Commerce Department reported that retail sales in July came to a grinding halt (0.0%).

At the same time, companies including Starbucks, McDonald’s, Ford, Burberry, and Gap are reporting disappointing sales. That means trouble in shopping paradise.

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Stocks Extend Their Fluctuations As Investors Await Series Of Economic Data Releases / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is now neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Great Day for Biotech Stocks / Stock-Markets / BioTech

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market indices rebounded smartly in the morning, but got up to overhead resistance, particularly on the Nasdaq 100, which failed several times trying to get through 4770. At that point, the S&P 500 was trailing badly. They then went into an afternoon decline, and orderly retraced channel, 5-wave decline on the S&P 500, and then dropped right back to the 2120 level it reached twice in three days. This was the third test. That was successful. It bounced a few points off that level. It was not exactly a rip-roaring rally, but, nevertheless, support held for now, with the S&P 500 having a triple bottom, and the Nasdaq 100 having a right-handed, extended V-pattern, or rising wedge. No question with overhead resistance at 4770, or thereabouts on the Nasdaq 100, as well as for starters 2140-5 zone on the S&P 500 is going to be critical going forward.

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Stock Market Double Bottom Positive Divergence Fails To Rally Market Big For Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

The market recently tested down to 2119 last Friday on the talk of a rate hike and poor economic reports. We saw the ISM Manufacturing Report and services come in well below expectations. Friday was painful, but the market tested down to 2019, which is still one full percent above the 2100 up trend line of massive support. After a fed Brainard rally on Monday, we saw the market head lower once again yesterday as it touched 2120. A nice double bottom at the lows, which also happened to set up a positive divergence on the short-term only, sixty-minute index charts. The daily charts aren't anything worth talking about from a bullish perspective. They're now more bearish in nature. However, a double bottom with short-term positive divergences usually means, especially in a bull market, that we'll test higher somewhat short-term.

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Stock Market Wild Week Ahead: The Selling is Not Through! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

A lot of traders I know were thinking that a low on Monday would be it and then off to the races. I was in that camp too.  The problem is the rising wedge was never broken. So what now?  Pretty much the same for the SPX and GDX: another strong rise on Wednesday followed by even more severe selling toward the week’s end. I’m thinking more like the SPX 2045 area by Sept 16-19.