Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Saturday, September 24, 2016

The Fed Decision / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: David_Chapman

As widely expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at the September 21, 2016 FOMC meeting. The Fed felt things were balanced, and was looking for a pick up into the fourth quarter of 2016. The Fed also left open the possibility of a rate hike at the December FOMC. There were three Fed dissenters, the highest number since 2014. The BOJ also made an announcement to maintain its QE programs and do some switching of long maturities for short maturities (the BOJ’s version of Operation Twist?).

Saturday, September 24, 2016

Stock Market Unwinding....Still Nowhere Big Picture... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

70 RSI is as 70 RSI does. Sure, you can go well above. I understand that, but yesterday most of the key index charts hit 70 RSI on the short-term, sixty-minute charts. Normally you pull back from there and today was no different. The market gapped down a little bit and spent the day below the flat line. Nothing dramatic, but it did succeed in allowing the overbought oscillators to begin and unwinding process, which, of course, many will question as to whether we've seen the ultimate top. Probably not, but you never know. Markets sell when they get too overbought to allow for more energy on the next attempted move higher. This seems to be no different.

Saturday, September 24, 2016

Stock Market Clear and Present Danger! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The cycle since 2009 has been different from other market cycles, throughout history, in only one significant manner. That having been said, it is the Global Central Banks that have intentionally pushed interest rates to zero and below. This encouraged investors to speculate in the equity markets which have now become ‘dangerously overvalued, overbought, as well as ‘over bullish’ extremes according to all measures. In my opinion, this has “deferred” and not eliminated the disruptive unwinding of this “speculative” episode.

Friday, September 23, 2016

The Fed’s Market Myth is Unraveling Before Our Eyes… Bloodbath Coming / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Graham_Summers

So much for the narrative.

The latest myth being promoted in economic circles is that median income growth exploded higher last year. The people promoting this myth obviously didn’t bother reading the actual report and don’t understand what the word “median” means.

A big hat tip goes to John Williams who actually DID read the report and found that the Census has adjusted its methodology to include what interest income WOULD be if rates were not at zero.

Friday, September 23, 2016

Where Did All the Money Go? / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation

By: David_Galland

Dear Earthlings,

As we’re still readjusting to life in a small Argentine pueblo miles from anywhere, I’ve asked Stephen McBride, my associate and now neighbor (he just moved here), to take the reins for the bulk of this week’s assemblage of news, analysis, and wry commentary about the never-boring antics of the human ape.

You may recall Stephen’s wonderful exposé on George Soros, an article that continues to bounce around the Internet doing good service by alerting people to Soros’s nefarious deeds.

Friday, September 23, 2016

Nasdaq NDX 100 Big Cap Tech Breakout ? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks

By: Rambus_Chartology

Below is a daily chart which shows the NDX 100 big cap tech stock index trading at a new all time high today.

Friday, September 23, 2016

Are Your Savings Safe? U.N. Warns Next Financial Crisis Imminent / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016

By: GoldCore

Savings Guarantee? U.N. Warns Next Financial Crisis Seems Imminent

“There remains a risk of deflationary spirals in which capital flight, currency devaluations and collapsing asset prices would stymie growth and shrink government revenues. As capital begins to flow out, there is now a real danger of entering a third phase of the financial crisis …”

Friday, September 23, 2016

Positive Stock Market Session Ends with Strong Finish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Harry_Boxer

The markets had a strong day on Thursday, with a gap up, run up, consolidation, they pulled back, held, and started back up near the end of the session. Many of our stocks did very well. We have quite a few to go over, so let’s get started.

Clovis Oncology Inc (CLVS) had a nice day, up 2.68, or 7.5%, to 38.36, on 6.5 million shares traded. You can see that it’s into the gap, and my target half way through the gap is as high as 47, but let it get through 40 first. I do believe this stock has room to extend. It has 3.5 days to cover.

Friday, September 23, 2016

Possible Stock Market Aggressive Sell for the Brave / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX made its high at 10:35 am. Although it has not gone higher, it has only taken baby steps lower, so it may not be “out of the woods,” yet. As noted earlier, it has achieved at least one Wave relationship, but has not filled the gap.

I cannot give an “all clear” for conservative investors, since the SPX has not declined back beneath its 50-day Moving Average and the NYSE Hi-Lo Index went considerably higher today. However, those who are aggressive may consider at least a partial position today.

Thursday, September 22, 2016

The Implications of the Italian Banking Crisis Could Be Disastrous / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2016

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : The current Italian banking crisis carries with it the possibility of bank failures. The consequences of these failures pyramid the crisis because of European Union regulations. Essentially, the position of the European Union is that the European Central Bank (ECB) and the central banks of member countries cannot bail out failing banks by recapitalizing them—in other words, injecting money to keep them solvent.

EU regulations go so far as to prohibit Italy from using its state funds to shield investors and shareholders of banks from losses, unless there is risk of “very extraordinary” systemic stress. Rather, the EU has adopted a bail-in strategy.

Thursday, September 22, 2016

What's Keeping the Stock Market Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

There appears to be some unfinished business in the NDX. It appears that the Cycle Top may be challenged yet one more time before reversing down. From there, it should sync up with the SPX in their declines.

Wave 5 = 1 and [v] = [i] at 4903.00 or slightly higher, but Cycle Top resistance is strong. In addition, Wave (C) equals Wave (A) at 4865, so the Wave relationships may limit the upside. Whether it goes all the way is to be determined, but it appears that NDX will be having an influence on the markets until it is finished.

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Lemmings Only Function in The Stock Market is to Serve as Cannon Fodder / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Sol_Palha

"A genius can't be forced; nor can you make an ape an alderman." ~ Thomas Somerville

From the Tulip bubble to the financial meltdown of 2008, the theme has been the same. The masses never learn, they always cry foul on the way down but gurgle with joy on the way up. In other words, when they are making money, they are okay with the risk, but when they start to lose, they scream bloody murder.

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Stock Market Sentiment Improves Following Fed's Rate Decision, Will The Uptrend Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Spectacularly Higher Day as NDX Makes New 15-Year Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market had a very volatile session today. First they gapped up and ran to resistance, rolled over hard to test support, and after the FOMC, bounced, and then exploded. They then pulled back sharply and held, and then went ballistic in the last couple hours, then went vertical at that point, going from 4810 Nasdaq 100, all the way up to 4859, a 49 run up. The S&P 500 went from 2144 to 2165, and closed not far off the highs.

Net on the day, the Dow was up 163.74 at 18,293.70, 14 points off the high. The S&P 500 was up 23.36 at 2163.12, just 2 points off its high. The Nasdaq 100 had a strong day, up 48.53 at 4853.75, 5 points off its high.

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

The Fed Chickens Out / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX made a marginal new high this afternoon as the Fed “chickened out” on its rate decision.. This is one of the sloppiest Ending Diagonals I’ve seen in a while, but that appears to be the best fit. Wave [v] appears to be complete, so those who have stepped aside may re-engage their short positions.

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Three Charts Every Stock Market Investor Needs to See Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Graham_Summers

The markets are in waiting mode as the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve meet this week.

However, smarter markets than stocks are already adjusting to a weak global economy. Oil, which lead the S&P 500 to the upside from the February bottom is now rolling over sharply.

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

The Fed Has Set Us Up for a Massive 50% Stock Market Collapse / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Graham_Summers

The Fed is running a virtual repeat of 1937.

The common narrative is that the Fed “didn’t do enough” during the Great Depression. This is used to justify the Fed’s use of non-stop extraordinary monetary policy post-2008.

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Stock Market VIX / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Marty_Chenard

The current VIX Index (Volatility Index) chart is posted below going back to 2015.

Please note the following: The long term trend has been down with each successive peak being lower. (A lower VIX correlates with a higher stock market and a higher VIX with a lower stock market.)

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Stock Market Cycle Dates have been Modified / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

After researching the Leading Diagonal [Wave (1)], I have concluded that it may not be considered corrective at all. That means the September 9 decline may have been the start of Wave (3).

More importantly, a closer examination of the Cycles Model strongly suggests that Wave (3) may have begun on September 9. The Brexit low appeared to be important, but it was not an Elliott Wave (4), as many would believe. It did not even register on the Hi-Lo Index. As a result, I cannot label it as an important Cyclical low, although its is an important part of the Orthodox Broadening Top.

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

European banks may be more important than the Fed this week / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

It’s like déjà vu all over again. The SPX Premarket has tested the lower trendline of its Orthodox Broadening Top, but pulled back.

ZeroHedge observes, “If yesterday one could "explain" the overnight stock levitation due to the move higher in crude oil, today there is no such catalyst with WTI down modestly, and yet the broader push higher across European stocks and US equities has reappeared following yesterday's muted close on Wall Street ahead of key central bank data on deck. Some have attributed the 0.4% rise in futures to the latest dip in the dollar, while a modest bond rally as the countdown to crucial policy decisions by the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve entered its final stretch, put taper tantrum concerns on hold if only for the time being.”