Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, October 04, 2016

Could a S&P500 Stock Market Flash Crash be Round the Corner? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: John_Mesh

There has been general speculation among the trading community recently about the possibiity of a flash crash of the types in 1988. In our morning meeting, we looked at some triggers which can potentially cause a major correction. We will look at if there is any real posibility. As many of you know, we do not like to just talk some nonsense about gold and Silver being precious metals and S&P500 as worthless papers and hence S&P 500 should be trading at under 10 and gold to be at 10,000. That kind of talk we leave to the uninformed punters of the kind we find at various bearish sites. MESH framework is a statistical tool which analyses various trading instruments for trading opportunities. Here we will look at the posibility of a major risk aversion this month.

Tuesday, October 04, 2016

FTSE BrExit Stock Market Panic Crash Resolves towards New All Time Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Remember how BrExit was supposed to trigger a stock market crash, collapse, bear market, with the mainstream press's panic reporting Brexit morning (June 24th) following the FTSE's early morning 5% mark down in the wake of the UK voting to LEAVE the EU.

Monday, October 03, 2016

Central Banks’ Bank Warns That China Could Cause Global Crisis / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016

By: John_Mauldin

I’ve been saying for the past couple of years that the next recession in the US will probably be triggered by an external macro event or cascade of events, coming out of Europe or China.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the London Telegraph sharpens the focus on China. He writes about the recently released quarterly report of the Bank for International Settlements (“the central banks’ bank”). The report repeats Michael Pettis's warning that China faces growing risk of a major debt and banking crisis.

Monday, October 03, 2016

Stock Market Closer To All-Time High, Will Uptrend Continue / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Monday, October 03, 2016

Strongly Bullish US Equity Markets Will Drive Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets

By: John_Mesh

Only one of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted a week-over-week advance, down from eight up the previous week. The S&P 500 was the sole winner with a fractional 0.17% gain. India's SENSEX was the biggest loser at -2.80%. The -1.15% average of the eight contrasts sharply with the 1.92% average for the previous week. The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks for these eight major indexes. We've also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colors for each index name help us visualize the comparative performance over time.

Monday, October 03, 2016

Commodities, Forex and Stock Market Trend Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Ken_Ticehurst

We continue to forecast a drop in the commodities complex over the next few months with the possibility of some important lows next year. WTI is still putting in a top, the dead cat bounce that has lasted throughout this year is running out of steam and we should see the push for lower lows over the next couple of months and in to 2017.

Monday, October 03, 2016

Stock Market Correction to Worsen? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: The long-term trend is up but weakening.  Potential final phase of bull market.

SPX Intermediate trend:  The uptrend from 1810 continues, but it has entered a corrective phase which could extend into November.

 Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Sunday, October 02, 2016

Deutsche Bank - Signs of Stock Market Panic! / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Gordon_T_Long

John Rubino and Gordon T Long discuss the unfolding mayhem in the European banking sector and specifically what is behind the panic selling in Deutsche Bank stock.

Sunday, October 02, 2016

Choppy, Toppy Stock Market into Early October / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Last week, we saw the stock market whipsaw: up one day and down the next. That pattern should continue into October 4th with another down day Monday. Buy the dip! A cycle top is due on Oct 4. The whole pattern smacks of a sideways 'b' wave bear flag that should give way to a nice 'c' wave drop into week's end.

I believe we finally see that false break of the rising wedge I've been talking about. A test of SPX 2099/2100 looks likely by Oct 7. October 6th should be a huge down day, somewhat similar to September 9th. What a messy strewn out 'Z' wave we've had (see chart below).

Saturday, October 01, 2016

SPX: corrective advance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Tony_Caldaro

The market started this choppy week at SPX 2165. After a gap down opening on Monday (DB related) the market declined to SPX 2142 by Tuesday’s open. After that it rallied to SPX 2173 Thursday morning. Then sold off (DB related) to SPX 2145 by Thursday afternoon. After a late day rally on Thursday the market gapped up on Friday (DB related) and hit SPX 2175. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.25%. Economic reports were mixed. On the downtick: Case-Shiller, the Q3 GDP estimate, pending/new home sales, plus weekly jobless claims rose. On the uptick: Q2 GDP, consumer confidence/sentiment, personal income, the Chicago PMI and the PCE. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by monthly Payrolls and ISM.

Saturday, October 01, 2016

Stocks, Bonds, Gold and Commodites - It’s January 2013, With a Twist / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Gary_Tanashian

The title was not meant as a play on words in reference to Operation Twist, but now that I think about it, maybe it should be.  The Post-Twist financial world is far different than it was before the genius that is Ben Bernanke’s ‘bigger than yours or mine’ brain concocted a maniacal plan that would “sanitize inflation” signals from the bond market and break the then highly elevated yield curve.*

So, why is today like early 2013 and why is there a twist to that view?  Because two indicators have come together to point to economic stability (at least) in the US, with the twist being that other indicators are pointing to a potential unchaining of inflation this time, unlike the 2013 time frame, which was in the grips of global deflation (and Goldilocks in the US).

Friday, September 30, 2016

Has Dow Theory Lost its Relevance: Stock Market Ignored it and Rallied to New Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Sol_Palha

"A stop sign is a gift for you to learn that moving in the same direction won't take you any place new." ~ Rex Steven Sikes

The transports topped out in November of 2014, and according to the Dow theory this is a big negative; the Dow industrials should have followed suit. Instead, the Dow soared higher paying no heed to this theory proving to a large degree that this theory has lost its value. After all, it is a theory and the definition of a theory is "a supposition or a system of ideas intended to explain something, especially one based on general principles independent of the thing to be explained."

Friday, September 30, 2016

Stock Market Nasty Pullback Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market indices had a rough, volatile session and closed very weak. The day started out with some back and forth action, they pulled back midmorning, and was successful. They then rallied back to resistance, and then they plunged, acerbated by news that Emergent BioSolutions, Inc. (EBS) was having problems with withdrawals. Panic set in to take it to minus 15.44, and then they had a sharp rally acerbated to the upside when it was announced that QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) may be acquiring NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI). The semi-conductors took off and took the market with it. Biotech’s suffered all day, though, and in the afternoon the indices did pull back and closed near support.

Friday, September 30, 2016

Green Light For Stock Markets In 2017 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: InvestingHaven

We believe the stock market correction is running its course. The seasonally weak month of September has only produced one significant down day. Our expectation was that the retracement would take stocks between 5% and 10% lower, as explained in ALL Markets Going Down Except The US Dollar.

However, it seems that the stock market is quite resilient. Two weeks after that strong down days, we have not seen any meaningful sign of a continuation of that retracement. That does bode well for an end of year rally, and, even more important, continued strength in the stock market into 2017.

Thursday, September 29, 2016

HSBC’s Chief of Technical Analysis Just Warned of a Potential 1987-Type Crash / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Graham_Summers

The head of HSBC’s Technical Analysis group just issued a major warning.

Unless the markets can take out its September highs, we could very well see a repeated of the 1987 Crash.

Murray Gunn is head of technical analysis for HSBC. In a recent client note, he pointed out the Head and Shoulders top pattern that presaged the 1987 Crash.

Thursday, September 29, 2016

What a Trump Win Means for The Stock Markets? Disaster or Buying Opportunity / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Sol_Palha

"As a man handles his troubles during the day, so he goes to bed at night a General, Captain, or Private." ~ Edgar Watson Howe

We would like to state that this article is not about politics but about the effect these two polarising individuals will have on the market.  Before the debate, the outlook was somewhat favourable towards the Donald and immediately the markets reacted and started trending lower. Regardless of what you think of Trump, he is having the same effect as Brexit had on the markets but in smaller doses. If he should win the election, then the reaction will be several magnitudes larger. When the poll results came in stating that Hillary fared better in the 1st debates the markets responded positively and recouped their losses; this reinforces our argument of several years that says substantial pullbacks should be viewed as buying opportunities.

Thursday, September 29, 2016

SPX is at the 80% retracement. Will it turn here? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning,

Thus far the SPX has made an 80% retracement. Normally this would be a dubious distinction, since the odds grow of making a new high beyond the 78.6% retracement. However, this seems to be standard operating procedure for this top, so we’ll have to monitor it as it develops. Being the end of the quarter doesn’t help the bearish cause, but a lot of big name stocks are not making new highs, which is a first.

Thursday, September 29, 2016

Stocks Extend Their Short-Term Gains, But Will They Continue Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Thursday, September 29, 2016

BlackStone Group Says The Stock Market Is The Most Treacherous They Have Seen / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jeff_Berwick

There has rarely ever been another time like this.

Not since 1999 and not since 1929 before that, have so many billionaires, central banksters, financial elites and fund managers, warned that we are on the verge of a catastrophic bust.

Thursday, September 29, 2016

Could the OPEC deal set stage for the Next Stock Market Risk Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: John_Mesh

We have been advising our clients about the market internals and fundamentals to be mildly bullish. Against popular opinion we have stuck to our guns that market will rally before the next big correction. The news of an OPEC deal could be the trigger if true. Reuters and other media outlets reported from Algeria on Thursday that OPEC members had agreed to cut oil output for the first time since 2008. Reuters reported OPEC members would limit production to a range of 32.5 million to 33 million barrels per day, down slightly on August's output of 33.2 million barrels a day, but there were few details availabe on the deal. Oil prices surged about 5 percent in response, with West Texas Intermediate trading at $46.75 per barrel. Without a deal, analysts had said oil could plunge to $40 or lower. ItThe OPEC deal to cut oil production may provide a short-term support for prices, but chances are it won't change the supply outlook much, Goldman Sachs said. Goldman said in a note to investors that it was sticking with its forecasts for WTI at $43 a barrel for the end of this year and $53 a barrel in 2017. The investment bank had cut its year-end forecast this week from $50 a barrel.