Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, October 17, 2016
Commodities, Forex and Stock Market Trend Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Ken_Ticehurst
We should now begin to see a drop in WTI over the next couple of months and in to 2017. So far the last few weeks have been as forecast and the next down phase we have been modelling for months is now due.
Monday, October 17, 2016
Stock Market Crash..or No Crash? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Martin Armstrong writes, “Apparently, there are a lot of people calling for a crash in the stock market as usual claiming it looks just like 1987. Sorry, there is nothing of that magnitude showing up at this time. We did elect one Weekly Bearish Reversal back at 18368. However, the main bank of support lies at 17710 followed by 17330. Only a weekly closing below 17330 would hint of a more serious correction.”
I agree that this market does not look like 1987. Trying to make a parallel between this market and another period is usually futile.
However, he points out to PAY ATTENTION to a break of the September 14 low at 17992.21….as I do, as well. This would warn of a drop to a lower level of support.
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Monday, October 17, 2016
A perspective on risk rally – Risks abound but Stock Market is Confident / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: John_Mesh
Three of the major indexes posted gains and five posted losses. China's Shanghai Composite was the top performer, up 1.97% following the previous week of market closure celebrating Chinese National Day. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was the biggest loser, down 2.59%. The average of the eight was a modestly negative -0.26%. The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks for these eight major indexes. We've also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colors for each index name help us visualize the comparative performance over time.
Monday, October 17, 2016
Danger, Will Robinson, Stock Market Crash Dead Ahead! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Brad_Gudgeon
When I mean crash, I mean about an 11-14% stock market panic in a few days. The astro is there, the e-wave is there and so are the cycles and chart formation (plus some technical information like the MACD daily below the zero line).I’ve been talking about a Rising Wedge building for a while now. I also talked about the expected False Break, which we just had on Thursday when the S&P 500 went down to the 2114 level and then bounced. It pierced the bottom of the daily Bollinger Bands and closed back above them. Now we must go back into the wedge itself before turning back down in expected waterfall action in the coming waning days of October. The SPX will likely be up nicely on Tuesday with some follow through into Wednesday in most indexes. I look for either a bearish evening star pattern or bearish Harami to form on the 19th.
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Friday, October 14, 2016
Brace Yourself for the Quadrillion-Dollar Reckoning / Stock-Markets / Global Debt Crisis 2016
By: John_Mauldin
The ever more extreme antics of our central bankers keep forcing us to find new ways to describe them. My good friend Danielle DiMartino Booth does this by drawing an interesting historical parallel.
Danielle takes us back to the 20th-century era of World Wars and draws upon Liaquat Ahamed’s. The Lords of Finance. His work was inspired by that 1999 Time magazine cover story “The Committee to Save the World.” You may recall it: the lovely mugs of Alan Greenspan, Robert Rubin, and Larry Summers up there, grinning like the Cheshire Cat.
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Friday, October 14, 2016
John Mauldin: My Infrastructure Plan to Save the US Economy / Stock-Markets / Infrastructure
By: John_Mauldin
Infrastructure. Most people think of roads and bridges when they hear the term. But we really should think of infrastructure as the things that allow us to move food, energy, water, products, people, and information.
It’s our rail and trucking systems. It’s our electric grid. It’s our telephone system, Internet, and other information systems. To some degree, it’s our school systems. It’s the things that make it possible for businesses and governments to provide the services and goods we all expect.
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Friday, October 14, 2016
America's 50-Pound Ball and Chain / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Clif_Droke
America's economic condition is truly a "tale of two cities." Upper middle class and wealthy earners have never been more flush thanks in large part to the record liquidity creation of the last eight years as well as to their financial market exposure.
By contrast, the middle and lower classes have either stagnated or are struggling as perhaps never before, due in part to their under-exposure to the financial market but also to the erosion of their real estate wealth in the last 10 years.
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Thursday, October 13, 2016
US Stock Market, Big Picture View / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Gary_Tanashian
Because perspective is everything, let’s once again get some big picture perspective…
S&P 500 is outside the lower fork line (again the Fork being a novelty, but the line being real) but above critical support. Bears would call this an overthrow to the upside and massive bull trap. We can call it an intact bull market above support and a very bearish market should that support be lost.
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Thursday, October 13, 2016
Stock Buybacks Main Force Driving Bull Market; Rewards Investors and Starves Innovation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Sol_Palha
"All the power that we exercise over others depends on the power we exercise over ourselves." ~ Cotvos
Share buybacks are nothing new; they have been around for decades, and in most cases, one would view this type of action under a favourable light. However, for the past few years, companies have used this technique as a ploy to hide stagnating earnings or even falling profits. The idea is very simple, and the rewards are lucrative as most corporate officers have incentive-based rewards. Corporations borrow money for next to nothing and then use this to purchase huge blocks of shares; the number of outstanding shares drops and the EPS magically rises. Each year for the past six years the amount of money allocated towards share buybacks has soared, because as we stated, this is the fastest way to increase EPS without doing a single thing magically.
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Thursday, October 13, 2016
SPX Gapping Down... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
The SPX Premarket is substantially down, lower than Tuesday’s low at 2128.84. It appears that, should the market open at this level, it may gap down beneath the 2-hour Cycle Bottom at 2125.33. A systemic unwinding may not stop at the September 12 low at 2119.12.
ZeroHedge reports, “Remember when two weeks ago the China Beige Book warned that "It’s A Lot More Negative Than People Think" in the world's second biggest economy? Well after months of complacency about the Chinese economy and financial risks emanating from its $35 trillion financial sector, overnight the world got a rude awakening when China export figures tumbled, signalling a deeper slowdown than many anticipated just as the Fed prepares to raise interest rates.”
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Thursday, October 13, 2016
Stock Market Negative Expectations Following Tuesday's Decline - New Downtrend Or Just Consolidation? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Very Negative, Critical Day for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices had a very negative session today. The day started out with gap downs, they went down all day, and only in the last hour they bounced back to pare back the gains.
Net on the day, the Dow was down 200.38 at 18,128.66. The S&P 500 was down 26.93 at 2136.73. The Nasdaq 100 was down 71.85 at 4821.91.
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Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Stock Market Lost in Translation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Ed_Carlson
A Hybrid Lindsay high is expected late this week, or early next, but that doesn't mean equities are expected to necessarily trend upward all week. Regardless, readers cannot afford to become lost in the semantics. Equities still appear to be looking into an abyss which will not bottom until closer to the final week of October.
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Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Stock Market Head & Shoulders Pattern Activated / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation appears to have been crossed. That action activates the formation with a minimum target of 2044.43. Chances of a bounce back above the neckline are normally slim to none. Should we close beneath it, we may see a massive gap down tomorrow.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2016
Confirmed Stock Market Sell Signals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX has crossed beneath the bottom trendline of the Triangle formation. This confirms the trend change in SPX.
ZeroHedge points out that the Risk Parity trade is deleveraging this morning, causing the breakdown. This practice is akin to the “portfolio insurance” used up to the crash of 1987, but with leverage, since yields are so low.
This may be a fast-developing situation, as each level of breakdown instigates more selling. There is a vicious feedback loop that may be unstoppable until selling is exhausted. That may take SPX beneath the February 12 low at 1810.10.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2016
The US Needs a Robust Infrastructure Spending Program / Stock-Markets / Infrastructure
By: John_Mauldin
I’ve been quite hard on central bank leaders lately, and rightly so. But once in a while, a central banker says something that makes sense. When it happens, I want to be fair and highlight it.
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz gave an unusually coherent Sept. 20 speech called Living for Lower with Longer. The “lower” refers to lower interest rates. He discussed some of the broader factors contributing to the extended low-rate environment.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2016
Stock Market Debate Rally...Still Nowhere....Still Bullish.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
Last night we had the second debate between Clinton and Trump. The market wants the status quo because if Trump wins, he said he would remove fed Yellen. That's not what this stock market wants. It wants Yellen since she, and she alone, is responsible for quite a bit of the wealth most have in stock market gains over the past many years. If she goes away, it is quite likely rates will go up quite fast and kill the market. The market wants a democrat since this will make certain that Yellen will remain in office, and, thus, the world of low rates and, therefore, more Disneyland is possible.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2016
Stock Market Downside Possibilities / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Brad_Gudgeon
The stock market rallied on Monday out of the 8 TD low on Friday. The 8 TD low is acting more like a 4 TD low. The dominant has once again become sub-dominant. The market looks as though it wants to curl over this week into Thursday. Downside possibilities are the low to mid 2130’s to as low as the 2102/07 area SPX.
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Monday, October 10, 2016
Stock Market Shades of August 2015 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
You may recall that we saw a Triangle formation going into the August 2015 flash crash decline. This time it’s capped by an Orthodox Broadening Top formation that has the potential for a much larger decline.
In addition, the time from the top of Wave A to today’s top is exactly 12.9 market days. From the 2187.87 high to the 2179.99 high was 8.6 market days. The time from the August 15 high at 2193.01 to the high at 2187.87 was 17.2 market days.
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Monday, October 10, 2016
No Clear Short-Term Direction, Will Stocks Continue Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral