Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, November 07, 2016

The US Presidential Election Stock Market Cycle / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Gary_Tanashian

The market has been very readable since before Brexit.  It was over bearish and due for a post-Brexit rally . It was due for a drop to test major support , but amid last week’s highly broadcast 9 straight down days and the renewed Clinton email scare, it was due for a bounce from over bearish status . However, this is not the end of the story. We remain on a test of major support unless certain upside resistance parameters are taken out. Beyond this highly volatile phase, we are likely either going to confirm major support and potentially break out to new highs or a bear market will ensue.

Monday, November 07, 2016

Stock Market Investor Sentiment Turns Bullish Ahead Of U.S. Election / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Monday, November 07, 2016

Stock Market Still Correcting / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: The long-term trend is up but weakening. Potential final phase of bull market.

SPX Intermediate trend: The uptrend from 1810 continues, but it has entered a corrective phase which could extend into November.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Monday, November 07, 2016

The Markets and the US Election Outcome No One Is Thinking About / Stock-Markets / US Presidential Election 2016

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : I’ve been saying that the Fed is more hawkish than people think for quite a while, but nobody is listening to me.

This is not a good Fed. They aren’t making decisions on a predictive, forward-looking basis. They are very concerned about optics—how things look. And to them, right now the optics of having Fed funds at 0.375% with unemployment at 5% are very bad.

Monday, November 07, 2016

Stock Market Countdown: An E-Wave Perspective / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

"In order to understand where we are now and where are going, we must first understand where we have been." ~ Professor Jennifer Cunningham

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." ~ George Santayana

"History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme." ~ Mark Twain

Going back and reevaluating the wave counts going back to the founding of our country, I realized I had made a mistake and that is we are in the final 5th of a 5th of a 5th which, itself, may be a millennial 3rd wave going back through European statistics to around 1000 C.E.

Sunday, November 06, 2016

SPX Stock Market Downtrend Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Tony_Caldaro

The week started at SPX 2126. After a bounce to SPX 2133 on Monday the market steadily declined to 2084 by Friday. There were three 10+ point rallies along the way, but they were all sold the same, or following, day. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 1.7%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 2.9%. On the economic front positive reports outpaced negative ones. On the downtick: Chicago PMI, auto sales, construction spending, the ADP, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims increased. On the uptick: personal income/spending, the PCE, ISM services, factory orders, monthly payrolls, the Q4 GDP estimate, plus the trade balance and unemployment rate improved. Next week will be highlighted by the Election.

Sunday, November 06, 2016

Markets Not Much Action but Don’t Get Careless / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Dan_Norcini

The payrolls report came in pretty much as expected and thus seems to be a non-event for the most part.

The Dollar is slightly weaker, bonds are higher, oil is lower and gold is a tad higher. Mining shares are showing weakness today.

I honestly do not think we are going to get much in the way of any CONSISTENT direction in these major markets ( with the exception of crude oil) until after the election results become clear.

Saturday, November 05, 2016

Stock Market Forecasts Donald Trump Election Win! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Zeal_LLC

With 2016’s contentious US presidential election just days away now, traders are still trying to game the outcome of this tightening race.  With a Hillary Clinton victory long priced in, the mounting odds Donald Trump will prevail have big implications for major markets.  One critical place traders should look for clues to how Americans will vote is the stock markets.  Recent stock performance really sways election results.

This assertion certainly sounds dubious.  When Americans are asked what the most-important issues for determining their votes are, the stock markets wouldn’t even make the list.  But interestingly a recent Pew Research poll found that the economy was the number-one issue in this election.  90% of Trump supporters, 80% of Clinton supporters, and 84% of all registered voters rated the economy at the very top.

Friday, November 04, 2016

The Stock Market Grand Illusion / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Tim_Wood

Many know that the economy is not good.  Fact is, the economic issues actually began in 2000 and have only been made worse.  The world economy is in a systemic crisis and I am going to show you the stock market bubble that has resulted from the attempts to resuscitate the underlying economy. 

In spite of equities’ push to a new high in 2007 and again in 2015/16, I have maintained all along that the secular bull market peaked in 2000, along with the underlying economy.   The first attempt at stimulating the economy and resurrecting the secular bull market came in the wake of the decline into the 2002 4-year cycle low.   Those efforts resulted in what was at the time the longest cyclical extension since the inception of the averages in 1896, which in turn resulted in a banking crisis, a commodity bubble and a housing bubble. Then, when the extended cycle finally began to roll over the end result was the worst financial crisis since the great depression.    Yet, the response to the worst financial crisis since the great depression was an even more extreme version of the same policies that created the problem in the first place.  

Friday, November 04, 2016

Stock Market and Election Implications / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

The SPX is attempting to rally this morning and we had those strange up blips up in the aftermarket yesterday on the SPY to 213.10, but earlier this week saw one that went to 215.53 and it did not work as it has in the past.

Ideally, we see a market top today 2 TD's. The last three 8 TD cycles ( 2) ran 6+6+10. We have another trine on Nov 5th, the last two (Oct 30 & Nov 1) knocked the market down after holding it up slightly on very strange internal e-wave patterns that normally suggest higher prices (the problem with interpreting bearish abc waves).

Thursday, November 03, 2016

S&P 500 At 2,100 Support Level - Make Or Break? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,150, and profit target at 2,020, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Thursday, November 03, 2016

Stock Market Reaches Deadly 7 Straight Days of Losses As Catholic Jubilee Year End Day Approaches / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jeff_Berwick

The S&P 500 has only fallen for 7 straight days three times in the last 20 years.  And, each time it was during a financial crisis.

And, it just happened again today. The S&P 500 fell 0.65% on Wednesday, marking seven days in a row of losses.

Wednesday, November 02, 2016

Stock Market Speculative Scenario on FOMC Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

This has been a highly unusual FOMC day. The swing has been a mild on in comparison to past announcements.

An interesting Wave structure may be emerging. Should SPX make another probe beneath its daily mid-Cycle support at 2096.53, it may complete yet another impulsive Wave. The target with the “best fit” to complete the impulse [Wave (v) equals Wave (i)], would be near 2075.00. That would give the decline from the top of Wave (B) over 100 points on its 42nd day (tomorrow) from the 2179.79 high on September 22.

Wednesday, November 02, 2016

Stock Market Rally on FED Speak Today? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

The chart below shows that we have the likely hood of staging a huge rally today in the stock market. In fact, the NASDAQ 100 could make a new high by Friday. The trines of October 30 and November 1 turned out to be exhaustion points in a down trend. The 5/10/20 and 40 week lows still loom ahead and are due sometime in mid to late month. Thanksgiving week could be pivotal.

Tuesday, November 01, 2016

Stock Market Bottoms Up! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Ed_Carlson

Last week’s commentary detailed the Hybrid Lindsay forecast for a low near Friday of last week. While the market did trend downward into Friday’s close near important support at 2,120, internal indicators show very few signs of an oversold market. In other words, it’s tough to make a case for a tradable low here without any confirming indicators.

Tuesday, November 01, 2016

SPX May be Ready to Bounce / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

It appears that SPX has declined beneath all its recent lows. Despite the sloppy, overlapping decline, one probable pattern stands out. Minute Waves [i] and [ii] may not yet be complete. If so, we may see a decline to the vicinity of 2112.00 (Wave [i]) before a bounce into tomorrow’s Fed announcement (Wave [ii]).

Should that be the case, the bounce tomorrow may be a strong one.

Tuesday, November 01, 2016

Stock Market Indices Close Lower After Drifting Most of the Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market indices started the week off on a sour note, although they did gap up at the opening, they pulled back, tested, made slightly higher highs on the S&P 500, but the Nasdaq 100 was not able to do so. The rest of the day was spent drifting back down, and in the last hour, they went negative and closed near the session lows going away.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 18.77 at 18,142.42, 12 points off the low and about 50 points off the high. The S&P 500 was down .26 at 2126.15, about 60 cents off its low, 7 off its high, and very, very narrowly changed. The Nasdaq 100 was down 4.32 at 4801.27, closed at the low for the day, and 22 points off its high.

Tuesday, November 01, 2016

Stock Market Same Old Boredom....Elections Coming Up... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

The market did today what it seems to do most every day. Gap and then go nowhere for the rest of the day. The market seems to waiting on the elections to come and go with the hope that Clinton will win only for the fact that it means The Dove, known as Yellen, will remain in place. It also wants deadlocks in the house and senate. However, before we get to the elections we get to look in on how the economy is doing on both manufacturing and services and then we'll gander a look at the Jobs Report on Friday. The fed is in between all this nonsense. Tomorrow it all starts with the ISM Manufacturing Report.

Monday, October 31, 2016

Stock Market - Things are getting interesting... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX did rally this morning, but only to the 61.8% retracement of Friday’s decline. That peak at 2140.72 marked 4.3 days from the previous high at 2154.79. An uninterrupted decline from that point for 8.6 days would put the low on the afternoon of November 9. It would also be 86 days from the All-time high in SPX on August 15 and 12.9 days form the NDX All-time high.

Monday, October 31, 2016

The Market Just Gave Us Three “Tells” But Few Are Paying Attention / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Graham_Summers

Are you worried about a market drop?

I’m not, we’ve been preparing for what’s coming for weeks.

Why do I think the markets will be dropping?