Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, December 21, 2016
Eight Ball Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Ed_Carlson
Cycles are shaping up for an important high just before (or just after) Christmas (It is decidedly so). In addition, the Bradley model shows a high in mid-late December (You may rely on it). If you feel like turning to this popular children’s’ toy for advice, it is understandable if not advisable. The Trump Rally has left many reliable indicators in the dirt but remember… To everything there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 21, 2016
Not a Gold Bull in Sight / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Bob_Loukas
In last weekend’s report, we covered how the Daily Cycle count was stretching too far, so marking a Nov 15th Daily Cycle Low (DCL) made sense. Doing so means that another DC began on Nov 16, and that puts today’s date in the normal timing band for a new DCL. So with another DCL fast approaching, the capitulation decline we saw this week fits perfectly with expectations.
The large drops in Silver and the Miners are strong indications that the final capitulation for the current Daily and Investor Cycles is at hand.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 21, 2016
This Blow-Off Trump Stock Market Rally Certainly Looks Real / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Harry_Dent
Between late 2014 and November 2016, the markets went nowhere. They made no more than a few, very minor, new highs. It looked like a classic head-and-shoulders, rounded-top pattern, with a break of 1,800 sounding the death knell.All of my research pointed to signs that the end was near. The Dow was set to shed thousands of points in short order.
How much has changed since November 8…
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 20, 2016
Financial Markets on the Edge / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
I begin the day by discussing an error in my Elliott Wave structure and how it was remedied. You may recall that on a larger scale, the USD is in some type of Broadening Formation. I figured that Wave (C) of [4] hadn’t completed yet and I had calculated the structure in a way that still gave me upper limits on how far it could go.
Tuesday, December 20, 2016
Stock Market Up Day, But Substantially Off the Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices started out the week with a pop to the upside, a very strong rally ensued, the Nasdaq 100 jumped from 4912 to 4963 to a new all-time high. The S&P 500 popped, but couldn’t get anywhere near the highs, reaching up to 2267.47, only 9 points off the lows, and then they backed off. In the afternoon, the Nasdaq 100 came down in a strong 3-wave decline, taking it from 4963 1/2 to 4926. It bounced at 4933 at the close, and managed to close positive on the day, but substantially off the highs.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 20, 2016
Stock Market Doesn't Look Right... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX emerged under the trendline again, after another rally attempt. The reason I am discussing this is that the next three days in a row have the potential for a large decline. No promises, just the potential. Technically we should be under the lower channel trendline to get a confirmed sell signal. The problem is, the potential for a panic decline right off the top is very high…and this may be the first time in market history for this to happen.
Monday, December 19, 2016
SPX may be hit by a double whammy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
While the SPX Premarket is slightly positive it has a cluster of Primary Cycle turns starting last Friday and lasting through this week that suggest something remarkable may happen. Friday morning was the terminus of an irregular (truncated) Wave (c) correction. The decline afterwards wasn’t very deep, but enough to cross beneath the trading channel trendline and become trapped beneath it at the close,
Monday, December 19, 2016
Bail-Ins Coming To Italy? World's Oldest Bank "Survival Rests On Savers" / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: GoldCore
The world’s oldest bank and Italy’s third biggest bank, Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), is making a last-ditch emergency attempt as the year ends to convince tens of thousands of ordinary Italian savers to help it escape state hands.
MPS shares fell 8.5% in early trading this morning as the bank began its attempt to entice institutional and retail investors to snap up fresh shares. The bank wants 40,000 retail investors and savers to take part in a complex €5 billion (£4.18bn) bailout. The Tuscan lender said it is pressing ahead with a highly-ambitious plan to persuade private investors to convert their bonds into shares. This process must be completed in the next two weeks – by the end of the year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 19, 2016
Stock Market More Short-Term Fluctuations Along Record Highs - Which Direction Is Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,330, and profit target at 2,150, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook remains bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Sunday, December 18, 2016
Stock Market Consolidation? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: If the market strength persists, the long-term trend may need to be re-evaluated.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX intermediate P&F count to 2270 has now been met, but there are higher counts that could still be filled before a serious reversal take place.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 18, 2016
Santa Claus to Extend Trump Stock Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Brad_Gudgeon
In this article, I’m going to point to reasons why I believe this rally has some more juice left in it. I also want to warn that early next year, what I thought would happen in November 2016 should happen in March/April 2017, and that is a 14+% drop.
The Trump phenomenon seems to have caused the normal cycles to misbehave and extend. After further examination into Primary Wave 4, I have come to the conclusion that I need to revise the timing of the final Millennial Wave top out to a possible 3 years (that IF is Intermediate Wave Z of Primary Wave 4 extends out to the end of 2018 instead of year end 2017).
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 17, 2016
Stocks Just Triggered a Major “Topping” Signal… Next Up is the Bloodbath / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Graham_Summers
The markets are priming for a major inflection point.
I cannot remember a time when investors were more bullish. The Dow is currently more overbought (based on the 14 day relative strength index) than at any point in the last 20 years.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 17, 2016
The 70-year US Treasury Bond Market Cycle and SPX Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / US Bonds
By: Tony_Caldaro
The market started the week at SPX 2260. After a slightly lower open on Monday the SPX rallied to the current uptrend high at 2278 on Tuesday. On Wednesday the FED raised rates for the first time in a year and the market pulled back to SPX 2248. Then a rally on Thursday to SPX 2272 was followed by a smaller pullback into a Friday 2258 close. For the week the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Economics reports were plentiful and ended the week slightly positive. On the downtick: export/import prices, industrial production, capacity utilization, housing starts, build permits, plus the treasury budget increased. On the uptick: retail sales, the CPI/PPI, NY/Philly FED, the NAHB, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by Q3 GDP, leading indicators and the PCE index. Best to your pre-holiday week!
Saturday, December 17, 2016
Stock Market Flirts With Dow 20k New All Time High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow flirted with 20k this week, hitting a high of 19,966, literally within a few points of claiming the historic 20k level along its relentless bull market path. If one looks back to not just the start of 2016, but, well right up until AFTER the US polls closed on November 8th and beyond then its not just a case of Dow 20k could never happen but that the Dow 'should' by now be trading at well BELOW 15k. Whilst a few of the perma crowd had completely flipped imagining the Dow could trade down to as low as 6k! I suppose that's where the Dow needs to trade for some guys and gals just to BREAKEVEN after year after year of beartish rhetoric.
Saturday, December 17, 2016
Financial Markets Award Trump Nobel Prize in Economics / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: David_Galland
Dear Parader,
As today we are headed north to spend Christmas with the family, Jake Weber, the invaluable senior researcher of our premium Compelling Investments Quantified (CIQ) service has kindly offered to fill in for this edition.
In his article, he delves into the economic and political challenges President Trump is facing and scans for any red flags flapping in the breeze.
On the topic of CIQ, we maintain a laser-like focus on finding great companies that sell below their intrinsic value—the only proven path to successful long-term investment.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 16, 2016
The Stock Market Level To Watch / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Dana Lyons (Tumblr.com) makes an interesting observation about a little-known index known as the Value Line Geometric Composite Index. In his article, he draws a straight line (red) at 500.00. and says. “This far and no further.”
He misses several points, which I would like to address. First, by drawing a horizontal bar, he misses the fact that the XVG was 27 points under it in 2000 and 23 points above it in 2015. By drawing a line that is peak-to-peak, you get a different picture. In fact, what comes to mind is an Orthodox Broadening Top (I added the lower trendline to complete the formation). This is a slight variation of what you see in the DJIA and SPX.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 16, 2016
Trump Rally and Irrelevant Dow Theory; What’s Next Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Sol_Palha
Uncertainty and mystery are energies of life. Don't let them scare you unduly, for they keep boredom at bay and spark creativity. R. I. Fitzhenry
In September we penned a second article in the Alternative Dow theory series, titled “Dow theory no longer relevant-Better Alternative exists where we stated that the Dow theory as it stood was no longer relevant. Here is a brief excerpt from that article.
The transports topped out in November of 2014, and according to the Dow theory this is a big negative; the Dow industrials should have followed suit. Instead, the Dow soared higher paying no heed to this theory proving to a large degree that this theory has lost its value. After all, it is a theory and the definition of a theory is “a supposition or a system of ideas intended to explain something, especially one based on general principles independent of the thing to be explained.”
Friday, December 16, 2016
Will Stock Market VIX Spike Today? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
The SPX Premarket is up, as would be expected for the close of index options at today’s open. Volatility may spike at the open as options traders settle their trades. What happens after the institutions leave the scene?
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 16, 2016
The Fed is BEGGING China to Crash the Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Graham_Summers
What is Janet Yellen thinking?
As the Fed wound down its QE program in 2014, the $USD hit liftoff. It has since hovered in the mid- to upper-‘90s.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 16, 2016
How Trump Could Blow Up The Entire Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: John_Mauldin
At first glance, strictly from the point of view of the short-term impact they will have on the markets, what's not to like about the Trump/Ryan/Republican tax proposals?
Trump is proposing a top corporate tax rate of 15% , and the Ryan plan essentially calls for 20%. The proposed corporate tax reduction will really have a far greater impact than any of the proposed personal income tax cuts.
Read full article... Read full article...