Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, March 12, 2018
Has the Stock Market Rally Run Out of Steam? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
On Friday, SPX closed short of the upper Diagonal trendline near 2800.00. weekend, SPX futures rose to 2805.00, then backed away. It is possible that the futures completed the task of testing that trendline over the weekend.
ZeroHedge remarked, “The "goldilocks" mood that was unleashed after Friday's jobs report (high growth, low inflation) has spread around the globe, sending Asian and European markets higher as trade-war concerns took a back seat to economic optimism. The dollar slipped and Treasuries held strady even as the US Treasury prepares to sell $145 billion in debt today (including both 3Y and 10Y Paper), while most commodities fell.”
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Monday, March 12, 2018
S&P 500 at 2,800 Again, Stock Market Breakout or Fakeout? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks rallied on Friday, as investors reacted to better-than-expected monthly Nonfarm Payrolls number release. The broad stock market retraced its late February move down, while technology stocks reached new record highs. Is this a new leg within multi-year bull market or still just retracement following late January - early February 12% sell-off? Let's take a look at possible future scenarios.
Friday's trading session was very bullish, as the main U.S. stock market indexes gained 1.7-1.8%. Investors' sentiment improved following better-than-expected monthly Nonfarm Payrolls release. The S&P 500 index broke above its short-term consolidation and it got close to the late February local high of 2,789.15. The index currently trades 3.0% below January 26 record high of 2,872.87. Both Dow Jones Industrial Average and the technology Nasdaq Composite gained 1.8% on Friday. The latter reached new record high, as it broke above 7,500 mark again.
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Monday, March 12, 2018
What Happens Next When Stock Market Investor Sentiment is Neutral / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
AAII is the stock market’s best sentiment gauge. Investors are extremely Neutral right now because the stock market has been swinging back and forth over the past few weeks.
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Monday, March 12, 2018
Just Another Minor Stock Market Pullback Within a Secular Advance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Donald_W_Dony
The retracement over the last few weeks has sparked many investors and market pundits to suspect that the bull market may be nearing a crest.
Most world indexes pulled back around 10 percent before finding support in late February and early March. And this was just after reaching new all-time highs in January.
Certainly not the kind of pattern that is associated with major tops in the markets.
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Monday, March 12, 2018
Are The Stock Market Bears About To Fumble? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
Do you think we will ever see a week of market moves associated with news events for which you will not shake your head?
Week after week I think analysts say something so stupid that I just want to scream. As I have pointed out so many times over the years, I keep hoping that some form of sanity will grip pundits one day. I keep hoping that they may wake up and recognize the error of their ways. But, alas, I continue to long for that day.
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Sunday, March 11, 2018
Stock Market Uptrend Resuming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – The intermediate correction from 2872 could continue until mid-May, but is mostly behind us.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, March 11, 2018
Bond Market Interest Rate Yields Are Rising Again… Stocks Are on Thin Ice / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Graham_Summers
The financial media is awash with claims that Gary Cohn’s resignation as Chief Economic Advisor is triggering a market collapse.
While it’s true that a market collapse is starting again, it has nothing to do with Gary Cohn.
How do I know?
Because Gary Cohn first wrote a resignation letter back in August 2017 in the wake of the Charlottesville mess… and stocks exploded higher beginning one of their greatest rallies in history.
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Sunday, March 11, 2018
Do All Bull Stocks Markets Need to Have a Bearish Divergence? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The Medium-Long Term Model states that this bull market has 1-2 years left. As a result, we are tryin to catch the bull market’s top as accurately as possible.
The January 2018 top did not have a weekly bearish divergence. Momentum (RSI 14) peaked at the same time as the S&P 500.
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Sunday, March 11, 2018
Online Stock Trading Tips - Tips about Online Trading & Day Trading / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Kavinesh_A
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Saturday, March 10, 2018
NDX makes a new high. What does that mean? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The big question being asked is what’s happening with the NDX. I spent a considerable time re-analyzing the NDX at all degrees to see what insight I might get. All of the Waves up to January 26 were impulsive. So, how could a complex double zigzag fit in? The answer lies in the fact that a Wave (B) may exceed the length of its corresponding Wave (A). So, while the SPX and DJIA are still making lower highs, the NDX may simply be giving a non-confirmation top.
There is a precedent for this. In January 2000 the DJIA made its top at 11750.20 while the NDX did not make its high of 4816.24 until March 24. However, 17 market days later the NDX was at a low of 3107.42 (35.5% lower). The point of this is that we may be expecting a severe low in approximately the same time period.
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Friday, March 09, 2018
The Stock Market Bubble Conversation / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: Harry_Dent
If there’s anything super-important in life, it’s reproduction. Without it, there’s no life… that’s why sex was designed to be so pleasurable.But pleasure is an addiction (to all creatures). Everyone has their guilty little pleasure. It might be chocolate or coffee, alcohol or opioids, a foot fetish or talking a lot. Some birds get drunk off of fermented berries. African elephants, monkeys, meerkats and giraffe get drunk eating fermented marula fruit.
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Friday, March 09, 2018
Is this the Beginning of a Trade War? / Stock-Markets / Protectionism
By: Harry_Dent
I’ve been back stateside for three days now and already I want to turn around and head back down under.Jet lag feels about as bad as I imagine detoxing from crack is (thank you, Naomi, for your recommendations to help with this!).
Markets are in no-man’s land, trading in the middle of the rising bearish wedge channel. They’re either not interested or capable of pushing above the top trend line, and they seem equally disinterested in breaking below the bottom trend line.
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Friday, March 09, 2018
The Last Great Myth of Every Financial Market Euphoria / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: EWI
See how financial markets are governed by waves of optimism and pessimism -- not cold reason
Beware of the "New Normal" in the Stock Market!
The January 2018 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast put it this way:
After two decades of Mania Era asset bubbles and sentiment extremes, what now seems normal to many investors is actually highly abnormal.
That's right -- many investors no longer fear asset bubbles. That is why too many will be caught off-guard when the Mania Era inevitably ends.
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Thursday, March 08, 2018
It’s an Ugly Picture If You Are Looking for Value in Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: John_Mauldin
By Patrick Watson : The long-awaited Strategic Investment Conference 2018 kicked off with a keynote from David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff titled, “Year of the Dog: Will It Bark or Bite?” (Spoiler: The answer is “bite.”)
Rosenberg began by running through a list of his own metrics: forward P/E, price/sales, price/book value, enterprise value/EBITDA. All of them point to record-high valuations.
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Thursday, March 08, 2018
Stock Market Shrugs Off Trade War Fears, But Will It Go Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks closed virtually flat on Wednesday, despite Tuesday's potentially negative resignation of Gary Cohn, the head of President’s National Economic Council. It heightened trade war fears. The market opened lower, but it reversed its intraday downtrend, as investors used the opportunity to buy stocks. The S&P 500 index extended its short-term consolidation following Friday's bounce and Monday's advance. Will it break higher today?
Wednesday's trading session was overall bullish, as the main stock market indexes closed between -0.3% and +0.3% vs. their Tuesday's closing prices following much lower opening in reaction to Gary Cohn's resignation's news. The S&P 500 index closed virtually flat after bouncing off support level at 2,700. It currently trades around 5% below January 26 record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3%, and the technology Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3% on Wednesday.
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Wednesday, March 07, 2018
When One Pattern Ends, Another Begins / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: EWI
Learn what really governs the trend of interest rates
By Monday, Feb. 26, the stock market rally that carried major indexes out of the depths of the recent sell-off came to within 1000 points or so of the DJIA's Jan. 26 all-time high of 26,616.
The next day, on Feb. 27, a major financial publication published this headline (Forbes):
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Tuesday, March 06, 2018
What Happens Next after February’s Stock Market Selloff / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P 500 Total Return Index (including dividends) closed higher for 15 consecutive months from November 2016 to January 2017. This record ended in February thanks to the stock market’s correction.
Historically, these extremely long streaks of consecutive monthly gains were a bullish sign for the stock market.
Here are similar streaks in the S&P 500’s history.
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Tuesday, March 06, 2018
The Powell Fed is Draining Liquidity. Here’s Where Stocks Are Going / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Graham_Summers
The Fed officially has a new Fed Chair, Jerome Powell. And ever since he took office, it is clear that “something” has changed at the Fed.
That something is the famed “Fed put” or the idea that the Fed would immediately move to prop up stocks any time they began to fall.
Jerome Powell was sworn in as Fed Chair on February 5th 2018. At that time, the market was in the sharp sell-off annotated in the chart below:
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Monday, March 05, 2018
Wild Stock Market Swings Coming Up.. / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
I had thought the Fractal Model would only work on the impulses and not the corrections. However this rally is emulating Wave A perfectly with a 50% retracement. This implies a 175 point decline may be coming next. The target appears to be 2540.00-2545.00. This does not appear to be taking out the February 9 low, as suggested. This sets up the buy-the-dippers for a smashing after another probe of the 50-day Moving Average at 2738.50 or the mid-Cycle resistance currently at 2748.63.
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Monday, March 05, 2018
Stock Market SPX 100 Point Drop? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures have started to decline again as of 6:00 am. SPX is on a sell signal, having declined beneath all Cycle supports, including the 50-day Moving Average.
Today the Fractal Model suggests a decline of approximately 100 points that should take SPX beneath the Cycle Bottom support at 2603.68. Unless something breaks down, it does not appear that it will take out the prior low at 2532.69. That may complete Wave 1 of (3). From there we may see a bounce back to the trendline near 2675.00. Prepare yourself for some wide swings as the volatility increases.
ZeroHedge writes, “What started off as a sea of red, with S&P futures tumbling as much as -25 points ahead of the European open, on fears of trade wars and concerns about the surge in Italy's anti-establishment parties, has managed to rebound notable and stabilize, with most Asian and European markets now green. The dollar was steady and Treasuries gained, while Italian bonds dropped as the nation headed toward a hung parliament.”
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