Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, March 28, 2018
Stock Market Elevated Risk Premia Suggests the Worst Yet to Come / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: Builderadv
Stock markets ended very weak yesterday. Any ounces of bounce is sold as we saw yesterday. The economy per se is doing just about fine.
Home Prices: Rising at its fastest
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures the price of a typical single-family home in major metropolitan areas across the country, rose 6.2% in January, down slightly from a 6.3% year-over-year increase reported in December. The 10-city index gained 6% over the year, unchanged from the prior month. The 20-city index gained 6.4%, up slightly from 6.3% the previous month.
Wednesday, March 28, 2018
Stock Market - 'Get Back In There And Sell, Sell, Sell' / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
For those of you who remember the movie Trading Places, this was a famous scene that I always remember when we see emotional reactions in the market after a downdraft.
And, when I went to read articles being published over the weekend, it seems they were all pretty much in agreement with the sentiment expressed in this scene: “You idiot. Get back in there and sell, sell, sell.”
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Wednesday, March 28, 2018
What Happens Next When the Stock Market is Very Volatile / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market’s volatility is very high right now. And by “volatility”, we’re not referring to VIX. We’re referring to the S&P 500’s daily % movements.
The stock market’s high volatility right now is not rare. There were a lot of historical periods with high volatility. What’s rare is that the stock market’s high volatility right now was preceded by a period of extremely low volatility (i.e. 2017 – January 2018).
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Tuesday, March 27, 2018
Are Stocks Ready for a Profound Failure? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures made an overnight high of 2679.75 before pulling back. The 38.2% Fib retracement level is 2702.27, which it has not achieved. As the formation stands right now, it would make an a-b-c zigzag. However, a further pullback may lead to yet another push to the trendline and 38.2% retracement. A failure to retrace that level would be profound.
The story line for this rally is Trump’s “Happy Tweet.” ZeroHedge comments, “Just as Trump sent stocks into a tailspin last week with his bellicose trade overtures against China, so the near record (point) rebound in the Dow on Monday is being attributed to a much more diplomatic tone out of the Trump administration, when first Mnuchin, then Peter Navarro played down the threat of a trade war and instead said that the administration is “actively” involved in talks with China to resolve the recent trade tensions between the two nations. Various unconfirmed media reports then also suggested that trade war with China may never materialize (of course, as Mark Cudmore explained this morning, it very well still may). It culminated with a "happy" tweet from Trump himself on Monday night, in which the stock-picking president, hours after confirming his delight with the spike in the market, tweeted "trade talks going on with numerous countries that, for many years, have not treated the United States fairly. In the end, all will be happy!"
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Tuesday, March 27, 2018
The World’s Biggest Stock Investors Have Lost $436 Billion In 2018 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: OilPrice_Com
Charles Benavidez: Wall Street is shocked, but it shouldn’t be: Tariffs targeting China should have been a given, and now the market’s tanking on trade war fears as if it just crept up on everyone, but Trump’s been very clear on this.
Wall Street is known for being short-sighted, though, and allowing itself to get caught up in the euphoria of the day. And now the world’s biggest investors are losing hundreds of billions.
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Monday, March 26, 2018
The ABCs Of Popping A Third Asset Price Bubble / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: Dan_Amerman
Movies can have quite predictable plot lines that we know in advance - but we love them anyway. It could be a romance, where the girl is going to end up with the right guy through a series of improbable events, even though that looks impossible to begin with. It could be an action movie, where our tough and underestimated hero overcomes seemingly impossible odds to just barely win in the end, after all.
There are movies that play over and over again in the financial markets and the economy as well, and while the particulars change, the plots can repeat themselves.
In this analysis, we are going to take a look at a market "movie" that has played out twice in the modern era, and follow the A-B-C-D plot line that was followed in each case. We will then take a look at more recent events, see if A-B-C have been occurring, and ask if D could be coming after C for the third time in a row?
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Monday, March 26, 2018
Stocks Set to Bounce Back, but Bulls' Worries Far From Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks extended their sell-off on Friday, as investors reacted to global stocks markets move down, trade war and monetary policy tightening fears. It was some kind of a perfect bearish storm that sent stock prices tumbling on Thursday, and then on Friday. As medium-term bearish case unfolds, we see indexes getting closer to their early February lows. Will they break lower?
The U.S. stock market indexes lost between 1.8% and 2.1% on Friday, as investors' sentiment remained very bearish following Thursday's sell-off. The S&P 500 index broke below the level of 2,600, as it got closer to its February 9 local low of 2,532.69. It currently trades 9.9% below January 26 record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.8%, and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 2.4% on Friday.
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Monday, March 26, 2018
Minding the Trade Gap: Gold Breakout, EURUSD chaotic, USDJPY Continuation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Builderadv
Large tax cuts and spending increases enacted by Congress and the Trump administration are poised to push fiscal deficits above $1 trillion in coming years. Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist of JPMorgan Chase & Co., has dubbed this the “square peg and round hole of fiscal and trade policies”—it’s nearly impossible for a nation to close its trade deficit while widening its fiscal deficit and expecting consumers to keep spending. Ultimately, “fiscal policy will dominate trade policy,” Mr. Feroli said. “Tariffs and other trade restrictions will be insufficient to lean against the overwhelming force.”
Worsening the situation is the fact that U.S. tax revenue declined in February and government spending rose, as the share of wages withheld for taxes dipped as a result of the tax cut passed by Congress late last year.
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Monday, March 26, 2018
Stock Market Ready for a Rebound? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – The intermediate correction from 2872 should now continue until May.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, March 26, 2018
Stock Market Complacency Reigns Supreme / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Plunger
I had intended to post part III of my interest rate series, however market conditions dictate that I post views on the current market. This market is now communicating that it is at high risk. For two months now, I have been advocating a strategic retreat. Head for the sidelines and watch the action with an unemotional detachment. The market is now sounding the alarm and one should be on high alert for a downside acceleration.
Plunger’s Bullet Points
Here are the main points I have presented over the past few weeks:
- The market has been in a final Phase III since the Trump election- it lasted 16 months.
- Secondary Reactions rarely occur in Phase III- Therefore, any major decline could very well be the end of the bull market and not just another correction.
- Dec 2017-Jan 2018 was a classic buyers capitulation which traced out as a steeple top in many indexes.
- The proper course of action for investors should be to execute a strategic retreat and head towards the sidelines. One could redeploy capital once the market resolves itself according to DOW Theory methodology.
- Rising rates are in the process of bursting the largest credit bubble in history.
- The bursting of the bubble will usher in a Post Bubble Contraction.
- Gold stock bull markets are most robust within the confines of a PBC.
- Phase I of a new bull market in the gold stocks began in Jan 2016.
- Phase II started in Dec 2016, however initial action is characterized by further consolidation and lethargic action resulting in investor doubt and discouragement.
- Excessive bearishness in the gold sector is unwarranted despite weak looking price action.
The largest financial bubble in history is concluding and one should prepare his bomb shelter and know how to protect oneself.
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Sunday, March 25, 2018
What Happens After the Stock Market Crashes on Thursday and Friday / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market tanked on Thursday (-2.5%) and Friday (-2%). This is rare. Most of the “down on Thursday and Friday” historical cases saw the S&P fall a little on Thursday and accelerate the decline in Friday.
Nevertheless, this is a bearish sign for next Monday but a short-medium term bullish signal for the stock market. Here’s what happens next when the stock market falls more than 2% on Thursday and on Friday.
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Sunday, March 25, 2018
Stock Market Analysis & Warning In Layman’s Terms / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As you likely know, the stock market, trading, and even long-term investing are not easy. That’s why in this post we want to make the complex simple for you. We will do this in a way that will give you that “Eureka!” moment regarding knowing what the stock market is doing now, and where it is headed over the next 12-36 months.
Last August we spotted trends in the underlying financial system that are very early warning signs that the bull market in stocks will be coming to an end, along with this growing economy. There is a ton of data taken into account for this information, but we have broken it down into simple bite-size points that simply make logical sense, from a technical analysts perspective.
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Saturday, March 24, 2018
SPX Wedge Breaks and Double Gaps: Capatulation but GOLD is Coiling for Breakout / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Submissions
Arb Cap writes: The stock market continued its correction lower with a sharp downmove the last nine days (12 to 22 March). The S&P 500, Dow Industrials and Nasdaq 100 lost more than five percent, while the S&P Mid-Cap 400 and S&P Small-Cap 600 fell 3.76% and 2.77%, respectively. The Dow Industrials (red) was the first back to negative territory with a move below the zero line on Monday, while the S&P 500 (black) and S&P Mid-Cap 400 (blue) followed suit on Thursday. The S&P Small-Cap 600 and Nasdaq 100 remain positive year-to-date.
Saturday, March 24, 2018
The Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes Aren’t Bearish for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The Fed hiked interest rates this Wednesday. This is far from being the last rate hike in this rate hike cycle.
We’ve already shown that rising interest rates aren’t consistently bearish for the stock market. We can look at this idea from another angle.
If rising interest rates are bearish for the stock market, then the stock market should fall after the last rate hike in a rate hike cycle (i.e. the economy and stock market should tank after the Fed has increased interest rates by “too much”).
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Friday, March 23, 2018
Stocks Recovering from a "deep dive" Overnight / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures challenged the Cycle Bottom support by declining overnight to 2718.50. It is now in bounce mode and may challenge the trendline today. The 38.2% retracement is almost precisely at the trendline at 2702.83 while the 50% retracement is at 2721.74. Mid-Cycle resistance at 2714.10 is a common retracement point. There is central bank intervention. The question is, how far can they retrace lost ground?
Thursday, March 22, 2018
The Tertiary Bubbles Have Blown Up… Can the Fed Manage the Secondary Ones? / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: Graham_Summers
The big questions being tossed around Wall Street today are: why are markets such a mess? Why are we getting these wild swings?
The reality is that the markets are NOT a mess. These are actually normal healthy markets. Healthy markets move, sometimes a lot in a small span of time.
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Thursday, March 22, 2018
Watch This Group Signal Stock Market Trend Changes / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: EWI
Virtually all stock market forecasting is based on the fallacy of linear extrapolation
Many investors would welcome a "secret insight" about the stock market that someone whispers in their ear.
But you can get "tipped off" on when a financial trend is about to change from a very public source that many investors may overlook.
That source is none other than the U.S. government.
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Thursday, March 22, 2018
Stocks are Gapping Beneath the Trendline Support / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures appear to be gapping down beneath the trendline at 2700.00. This may be yet another big down day.
ZeroHedge reports, “Yesterday, we showed that according to Wall Street, the biggest tail risk facing investors right now is a "trade war"...
... and that should trade tensions escalate, lower stock prices would be the immediate result (and that managers would sell stocks in advance).
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Thursday, March 22, 2018
Fed Action Casts Shadow on Bullish Case for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Fed's interest rate hike drove stocks lower on Wednesday, as investors feared tightening monetary policy could considerably slow future growth. Will stock market indexes continue lower today? Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are very negative, but we may see more volatility. The market is still at a crossroads.
The main U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.2-0.3% on Wednesday's following relatively brief rally after the FOMC's Rate Decision release. The S&P 500 index continued to fluctuate within its short-term consolidation. It is currently around 5.2% below January 26 record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.2%, and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 0.3%.
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Thursday, March 22, 2018
A Strong Economy and Weak Stock Market is Bullish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market and economy move in sync over the long run. When the stock market deviates from the economy, it inevitably realigns itself with the economy’s direction within a few months.
The U.S. stock market’s correction in February 2018 was accompanied by a growing economy. This implies that the current “small correction” will not turn into a “significant correction” or bear market. Here’s the study: what happens when…
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