Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Sunday, April 08, 2018

Stock Market’s High Uncertainty is Medium Term Bullish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market’s volatility has been crazy recently. It’s clear that the majority of investors and traders are undecided. It soars a few percent over 2 days, then tanks a few percent over 2 days, then soars, then tanks…

We can see this uncertainty in the market’s breadth as well. The NYSE’s Up Volume indicates the number of stocks that went up today.

8 out of the past 11 trading days have seen Up Volume either above 80% (i.e. most stocks surging) or below 20% (i.e. most stocks going down). This is a rare medium term bullish sign for the stock market.

Saturday, April 07, 2018

As the Gold, Stocks, and Bond Markets Macro Turns… / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

We began months ago, noting the 3 Amigos destined for their goals. Here’s a post from November 2017 explaining the macro fundamentals involved:

Updating the 3 Amigos of the Macro

1. Amigo #1 (SPX vs. Gold): Either reach major theoretical resistance (it’s a ratio, after all) or abort mission by establishing a downtrend.
2. Amigo #2 (10yr yield to 2.9% and 30yr yield to 3.3%): Destinations reached!
3. Amigo #3 (also known as the slower, dumber Amigo, the 10yr-2yr Yield Curve): Still on his journey, flattening. The trouble would be indicated by steepening.

Friday, April 06, 2018

Soccer World Cup: Will it help the Russian Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Dimitri_Speck

Dear Investor,

You may be following sporting events as passionately as you follow market price trends. Or perhaps you’re not a sports fan, and you’re only interested in the stock market?

Either way, there is an exciting question about what effect big international sporting events have on share prices. The country that hosts Olympic Games or soccer World Cup draws huge media attention, the domestic mood improves, and big investment projects are carried out. All of this can affect the stock market.

Friday, April 06, 2018

Stock Market Update: S&P 495 Versus The Big 5 FANG Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: WMA

We have been marveling at the outperformance of the biggest five companies in the S&P 500 (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Facebook) for some time (see our May 5, 2017 Commentary, “The S&P 500 or The S&P 495?”).  Technology has almost single-handedly driven the equity market into an extraordinary bubble. Tech had been red hot since the January 2016 equity market correction. Tech was hot, but now it is not.

Enthusiasm for the mega cap tech stocks even provoked the creation of a new index, the NYSE FANG+ Index.  The equally-weighted index includes ten companies which the market has fallen in love with: Apple, Netflix, Google, NVIDIA, Amazon, Tesla, Baidu, Alibaba, Facebook, and Twitter. The chart below shows the FANG index relative to the Russell 3000. These ten stocks almost DOUBLED the broad market performance in two years time.

Thursday, April 05, 2018

Stock Market Bulls Happier Again, but... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Bulls regained their strength on Wednesday, as stocks retraced Monday's sell-off following lower opening of the trading session. The S&P 500 index extends its short-term consolidation despite trade war, interest rate hikes fears. So, is medium-term bullish case valid again?

The U.S. stock market indexes gained 1.0-1.5% on Wednesday, following much lower opening of the trading session, as investors' sentiment improved after rebounding off recent local lows. The broad stock market broke above the level of 2,600 again and got closer to 2,650 mark. The S&P 500 index trades 7.9%  below January 26 record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.0%, and the technology Nasdaq Composite gained 1.5%, as big cap tech stocks were relatively stronger than the broad stock market yesterday.

Thursday, April 05, 2018

Stock Markets Rise Impressive as Expected at 200 DMA: What Next ? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Builderadv

We had expected the double bottom on stock market to result in a significant bounce. Read our report here: Markets to rise. The stock market staged an impressive upside turnaround today. After opening 500 points lower this morning, the Dow Industrials ended the day 230 points (0.96%) higher. That's a gain of more than 700 points from its opening price. Stock indexes gained roughly 3% from their sharply lower opening this morning. The fact that those upside turnaround took place at their 200-day averages was especially impressive. The Dow Industrials scoring an upside reversal day from just above its 200-day line. Initial overhead for the Dow to overcome is at 24,400. S&P 500 closing well above its 200-day average after opening below it this morning. That's a very encouraging sign. Initial overhead resistance for the SPX is at 2674. A close above that initial barrier would be an even more encouraging sign. The Nasdaq Composite Index also find support near its 200-day average. The Nasdaq was the day's strongest index with help from biotech and technology stocks. Small caps also had a strong day.

Thursday, April 05, 2018

Adaptive Dynamic Learning Predicts Massive Stock Market Bottom / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team at Technical Traders Ltd. has been hard at work trying to identify if this recent downside price move is more concerning or just a rotational move.  The recent global news regarding the US/China trade tariffs as well as the fallout that started nearly two weeks ago in Technology with Facebook, Snap and others has spooked the markets.  Our additional research shows that China and Asia are extremely fragile at the moment and the global Central Bankers as well as the Real Estate market could be key to any future unraveling of the markets.

Wednesday, April 04, 2018

On the Stock Market the Federal Reserve Impersonates Dikembe Mutombo! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Barry_M_Ferguson

NBA fans will remember Dikembe Mutombo as the former defensive-minded center who carved his niche in the league by blocking shots. Upon swatting a shot away, Dikembe would shake his head ‘no’ and wag his forefinger back in forth at his opponent as admonishment for even attempting a shot near his presence.

Wednesday, April 04, 2018

Stocks, Gold and Commodities are Building a Base to Rise / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Builderadv

Wednesday, April 04, 2018

Stock Market Close Below the 200SMA is Medium-long Term Bullish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P 500 closed below its 200 daily moving average for the first time in 442 trading days yesterday. This is actually a medium-long term bullish sign for the U.S. stock market.

This means that the S&P 500’s trend was insanely strong from the second half of 2016 to January 2018. When the market’s trend was insanely strong and subsequently makes a “small correction”, that “small correction” doesn’t turn into a bear market.

Wednesday, April 04, 2018

Improving Moving Average Systems with Andrews Pitchfork / Stock-Markets / Technical Analysis

By: Submissions

By Ron Jaenisch: In Traders world publication last year, “A Winning System” was included, by this author. The system was a 50/100 week moving average crossover system. A track record was shown that documented the systems 100% record of winning trades for the last eighty years.

Since I learned Andrews and Babson techniques, from Dr. Alan Hall Andrews at his kitchen table and use them in my own trading, I decided to experiment with the idea of combining the Pitchfork with the crossover moving average system. This article will show some of the results of this experiment.

Tuesday, April 03, 2018

Markets Could Rise on Commodity Prices in April / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Builderadv

Despite all the volatility during the first quarter, the first three months of 2018 stock markets correcting but recovering towards the fag-end. The Dow Industrials were the biggest losers with a quarterly drop of -2.5%. The broader S&P 500 Index lost only -1.2%. While the tech dominated Nasdaq Composite gained 2.3%. Small caps saw only a marginal loss (-.40%). The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) captures the entire stock market by size (large, small, and midsize) and by style (growth and value). And it lost only -.71% from the end of December to the end of March.

Tuesday, April 03, 2018

Revealing Stock Market Session / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
 
Intermediate trend – The intermediate correction from 2873 should now continue until May.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Monday, April 02, 2018

A Sudden Decline in Market Sentiment is Bullish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market soared from 2017 to January 2018. The rally’s acceleration in January resulted in extremely optimistic sentiment from consumers.

1. 30% of consumers polled in January by the Conference Board expected stocks to rise in the next few months.
2. Today, only 6% of consumers polled by the Conference Board expect stocks to rise in the next few months.

Sunday, April 01, 2018

The S&P Stocks Index Will Probably Breakdown Below its 200 SMA / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P 500 is hovering just above its 200 day moving average right now.

When the S&P 500 flirts with its 200 sma but doesn’t break below it, it usually breaks below this moving average soon. This is a short term bearish sign for the stock market but has no medium-long term implications. The 200sma becomes a magnet for the S&P in the short term.

Saturday, March 31, 2018

Central Planners Hiding Inflation, Imposing Negative Real Interest Rates / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up we’ll hear from Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors. We’ll ask Frank about his outlook on gold during the remainder of 2018 and he’ll also tell us why we should be very leery of taking any financial advice from newly appointed Trump advisor Larry Kudlow. Don’t miss my conversation with Frank Holmes, coming up after this week’s market update.

As the first quarter of 2018 comes to an end, the gold market finds itself trading fairly close to where it began the year. Every time gold looks like it’s on the verge of breaking out, it gets pushed back into a stubbornly persistent trading range.

Friday, March 30, 2018

High Volatility is Bullish for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The U.S. stock market’s recent volatility has been very high. We demonstrated in this study that high volatility is a short term bearish sign but a medium term bullish sign for the stock market. Here’s another way of looking at it.

The S&P experienced 4 consecutive days of >1.5% movements (CLOSE vs. CLOSE $) from March 22 – 27, 2018. Some traders think that such high volatility is “bear market behavior”. I disagree.

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Stocks End a Wild Quarter, as Bulls Scratch Their Heads / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Wednesday's trading session was pretty uneventful compared to Friday's, Monday's and Tuesday's volatility. Stocks fluctuated along their Tuesday's closing prices, as investors hesitated after slightly better-than-expected Final GDP number release. Will stocks rebound today? Or is this just a consolidation before another leg lower? It seems that there are still two possible future scenarios.

The main U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.9% and -0.0% on Wednesday, as investors hesitated following Tuesday's sell-off. The sentiment remained pretty bearish despite some better-than-expected economic data releases. The S&P 500 index fluctuated along the level of 2,600. It is currently 9.4%  below January 26 record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost just 0.05%, and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 0.9% on Wednesday, following its Tuesday's sell-off of 3.3%.

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Sketchy Explanations For Stock Market Selling / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: WMA

Each time equity markets enter a corrective phase, the financial media has to find “the reason”. Without knowing “the reason” for selling, their articles would be too short and uninteresting. We posit that equity markets today are driven by animal spirits, with little regard to factors supposedly driving equity market moves. Even in “normal times” (which would not qualify this market), technicians would tell you that news follows the market. In other words, once a price trend is in place, subsequent news events are interpreted to support or explain what is already happening on markets.

Thursday, March 29, 2018

ETF Investors Got Screwed Again -- When Will They Learn? / Stock-Markets / Exchange Traded Funds

By: Avi_Gilburt

As many of you know, I run a trading room with well over 3500 members, including over 450 money managers. I have seen the good, the bad, and the ugly as far as what traders and investors do through the years. And, no matter how much I warn about the pitfalls in the market, many chose to ignore me, and eventually learn on their own the hard way.

To this end, this article is focused mostly upon the evils of leveraged ETF’s and those that advise their use as “buy and hold” vehicles.