Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, April 05, 2008
Market Manipulation on Hedge Funds Margin Calls to Trigger Distressed Selling / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
Thoughts on the Continuing Crisis - If the Rules are Inconvenient, Change the Rules
- Let's Re-arrange the Deck Chairs
- Regulations Coming to a Hedge Fund Near You
- More Fun in the Unemployment Numbers
- A Muddle Through Recession
- How Much do we Borrow for a $1 growth in GDP?
There is so much that is happening each and every day as the Continuing Crisis moves slowly into month 8, so much news to follow, so many details that need to be followed up that it can get a little overwhelming. Where to begin? Maybe with a "minor" change of the rules on how we value assets, then a look at the proposed changes in regulations, some comments to my hedge fund friends, a quick look at the employment and ISM numbers which are clearly showing we are in a recession and then finish up with some thoughts as to what it all means. There is a lot of ground to cover, so we will jump right in without a "but first" today.
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Friday, April 04, 2008
US Government Assault on the Free Markets / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
By: Peter_Schiff
Those blindsided by the recent financial meltdown are now loudly blaming the free market for its failure to police its own excesses, and are calling for greater regulation to prevent future disasters. But for those who clearly observed the problems developing (in high definition slow motion) the blame can be directed squarely at the policies of the Greenspan/Bernanke Federal Reserve. As has been the case countless times in history, the free market will now pay the price for government incompetence. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 04, 2008
Worst of Credit Crisis Over? Watch the Stock/ Bond Ratio / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Is the worst of the credit crisis behind us? Some of my perma-bear friends will probably think of hospitalizing me for merely raising the question. The short answer, however, is that nobody actually knows. Sure, one can deliberate the fallout of the subprime saga to the nth degree, but even a crystal ball regarding the economic variables doesn't necessarily mean getting the markets right. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 03, 2008
Minor Pullback in Nasdaq Appears Complete / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The Q's (NASDAQ: QQQQ) appear to have finished a minor pullback off of yesterday's high at 46.01 into today's low at 45.14 and have turned up sharply after absorbing and/or shaking off the negative news about jobless claims. The fact that prices have turned up sharply AHEAD of tomorrow's Employment Report is very interesting -- and dare I suggest provocatively bullish action.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 03, 2008
Stock Market Trends April 2008 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Hans_Wagner
To make money and beat the market it is important to follow the trend. When you follow the trend the market's underlying forces work for you. Simply said, but how do you identify the trend so you can follow it?
I believe it is best to begin with the big picture in mind and then work our way down to weekly and then daily views of the charts. You will notice that the chart and the value of the indicators change as we move from a monthly to a weekly and then a daily chart. This is a normal part of the technical analysis.
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Wednesday, April 02, 2008
Credit Crisis Trend Exhaustion- Supermarket Tabloids to the Rescue! / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Clif_Droke
A sure sign that a trend has exhausted itself is when news tabloids start printing stories about economic depression and forecasting stock market crashes.
I can vividly recall some of the U.S. supermarket tabloids that were forecasting a second Great Depression in the wake of the 1998 stock market debacle. The '98 sell-off, which was catalyzed by the Asian currency crisis and the LTCM meltdown, saw the S&P decline some 20% from July-October of '98. About the time that bearish tabloid stories hit the news stands, the stock market had bottomed and was on its way to new highs while the super-charged U.S. economy regained its strength and was running on all cylinders.
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Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Why Government Rescues Don't Work / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Paul_Tustain
"...Just like natural organisms, the financial system must have death to evolve into a better form..."
NOW THAT HE'S wearing some sort of do-good government hat, even Hank Paulson is not thinking straight.
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Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Make it a Margin Call: The Change to Fix the Risk / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Paul_Petillo
It would probably be best to talk about what we know. Getting those headlines out of the way will, without a doubt, give us some insight into where we are headed. At least in theory.
Bear Stearns avoided bankruptcy when JP Morgan, who seized a unique opportunity to pick apart the firm for its brokerage business and clearinghouse operations at a price” that, despite being revised upwards from $2 to $10, left most folks inside Wall Street speechless.
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Tuesday, April 01, 2008
How to Fix the Credit Markets / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
This week we will look at what will be a fairly controversial essay by good friend Michael Lewitt of HCM. In light of today's speech by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson of the re-organization of the regulatory system in the US, Michael suggest we look at what the real problems are before we begin the process of re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. For many, some of what he says will be considered economic heresy. I do not agree with all of it (though I am in solid agreement on most of it), and look forward to talking with him in a few weeks in La Jolla when we are together. But the point of Outside the Box is not to find material that I or you agree with or that makes us comfortable, but something which causes us to think through our own opinions and biases. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Investment Flash: Beware of Money Substitutes / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Paul_Lamont
The panic we suggested would occur in our report last month has enveloped the credit markets .
“When the house of (credit) cards begins to fall in on itself, the trend turns from inflation to deflation . That's when creditors turn their focus from lending to collecting and debtors turn their focus from borrowing to repaying. But by this time there are too many IOUs, and debtors cannot service them, much less repay them. Falling asset values and economic contraction thwart efforts to honor the loans. Debtors begin to default. When that happens, the game is up.” – Bob Prechter, Elliot Wave Theorist
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Monday, March 31, 2008
The Bernanke Politburo's Next Big Plan / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mike_Whitney
" Instead of just propping up bankrupt banks, the governments should be democratising them - mobilising their assets to stimulate the productive economy, repairing infrastructure, researching and developing new markets, and refitting western economies to combat climate change. " Iain MacWhirter, "The Red Menace"
The Federal Reserve is presently considering an emergency operation that is so risky it could send the dollar slip-sliding over the cliff. The story appeared in the Financial Times earlier this week and claimed that the Fed was examining the feasibility of buying back hundreds of billions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) with public money to restore investor confidence and clear the struggling banks' balance sheets.
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Monday, March 31, 2008
Judgment Day for Wall Street / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Money_and_Markets
In the first days after the Fed's history-breaking Bear Stearns bailout, a parade of Wall Street pundits preached the theory that ...
"The worst of the crisis is behind us" ...
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Friday, March 28, 2008
Global Stock Markets Index Movements Since Highs / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
I posted a scorecard for a number of global stock markets a week ago, showing the index movements since each of the respective market's highs. This short post provides an update, but this time also showing returns in US dollar and euro rather than only in local currency terms.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 28, 2008
Can This Stock Market Rally Last? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: John_Browne
As the markets closed on Friday, March 14th , the $50 billion hedge fund, Carlyle Group, had collapsed, and questions were being asked about the viability of Bear Stearns. Having realized that Bear was close to insolvency, the Treasury and Fed worked overtime during the ensuing weekend to cobble together a bail out scheme that has since calmed the markets and encouraged a tepid rally. The salient question now is whether the rally can last.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Bottomless Financial Sector Bottom / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Global exchanges and the 13-hour trading day - The prevailing force-fed sentiment is that the US financial sector has bottomed out, the worst is over, the mechanisms for remedy are here, and time to get back in the water for profound bargains again. Let me rebutt! The financial sector is merely taking a breather in a long death march after the great bond bust and horrific unwind of reckless mortgage creation. Monoline bond insurers are nowhere near properly capitalized to handle upcoming substantial losses, nor are banks with loss reserves. Hundreds of billion$ in overvalued and soon-to-be hit mortgage bonds still have yet to occur. And besides, the housing price decline has not even remotely stabilized. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Stocks Bear Market Notes / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Brian_Bloom
There is an argument which might be put forward that, as the bad news is now known and, given that the market looks forward, the worst may be over and we have seen the lows in the industrial equity markets.
This view may well be right, but it is predicated on the assumption that all the bad news is known.
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Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Global Stock Markets P/E Ratio and Prospective Growth Analysis for 2008 / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The sharp drops in global stock markets has led to a fall in the current price earnings ratio's, however this fall needs to be tempered against lower GDP and earnings growth forecasts as the sharp US economic slowdown will impact most economies to varying degrees, shaving between 1.5% to 3% off the growth rates of many emerging markets.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Stock Market Technical's and Fundamentals Remain Weak / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: Chris_Ciovacco
While there is no question stocks are trying to form what market technicians call a double bottom, not much has really changed in recent weeks in terms of market leadership. It is helpful to take a step back and see what is actually happening from both a technical and fundamental perspective when times are uncertain and people are continually asking, "Has the market found a bottom?"Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Unwinding of the "Yen Carry Trade" is Bearish for Global Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Yen Carry Trade
By: Donald_W_Dony
Global equity traders had, for many years, a ready source of funds at almost no interest charge. Traders have been shorting the Yen and using the funds to purchase stocks, currencies and high-yielding securities around the world. However, as of mid-2007, that "free bank account" is becoming more and more costly. The Yen carry trade is starting to unwind with very negative results for stocks. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Dow Transports Signaling More Bullish Times Ahead / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The iShares DJ Transportation Index ETF (AMEX: IYT) continues to act as though oil prices are considerably lower than $101/bbl and that the U.S. economy is hitting on more cylinders than currently perceived. Let's note with interest that crude oil prices ENDED their prior correction ($86) during the third week of January, which also coincided with the corrective low in the IYT at 71.62, and since then oil prices have climbed to a $111.80 high, while the IYT has continued to climb as well.Read full article... Read full article...