Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Bretton Woods II- Roadmap Towards a New Financial System / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
Following calls by European leaders for a "Bretton Woods II", the Bush administration has invited the " G-20 " countries to come to Washington with the lofty goal to reform the world financial system. Will the way we do business change November 15?
The first Bretton Woods conference, held in 1944, gave birth to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and - albeit with half a century delay - the World Trade Organization.
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Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Stock, Commodities and Currency Futures Markets Analysis / Stock-Markets / Futures Trading
The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the overnight decline, October's low crossing at 1136.75 is the next downside target. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 1389.00 are needed to renew the rally off October's low. Closes above the October 14th reaction high crossing at 1499.00 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Credit Crisis Worse to Come as Bank Credit Contracts / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
Can the credit crisis get any worse? In this week's Outside the Box my London partner Niels Jensen shows that it indeed can. Banks, and mainly European banks, have large exposure to emerging market debt of all types through both sovereign, corporate and individual loans. Just as banks have had to write down large losses from the subprime crisis and other related problems, next will come a wave of potential losses from yet another source. Niels then goes on to give us a look the size and problems with hedge fund deleveraging. Altogether, this is a very interesting letter and one that is written from a non-US point of view that I think you will find instructive.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Stock Market Indices Reverse Opening Up-Gaps / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The markets had what I would call an ugly day today and a nasty way to start the week. They weren't down tremendously, but they ended far from where they started.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Credit Crisis Tentacles Spread to Every Sector of Finance Market / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
Finally there is a 100% consensus between economists, experts, journalists, and government officials that restoring interbank lending will restore the stability of the financial system and will reignite economic growth. Too bad, the consensus has gotten again all wrong. This is a pure myth and nothing can be further from the truth.
The grim reality is very different and already forgotten. The reality is that most markets for the majority of financial instruments have collapsed completely and reviving interbank lending will not resurrect any of those markets. In other words, resolving the problem of interbank lending will not help the economy in any way. It is like an air balloon that has deflated and we desperately need to reflate it again with helium, but we are told that even ordinary cold air will lift it off the ground; since the balloon is stubbornly stuck on the ground, we are told we simply need more air!
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Monday, November 10, 2008
Investor Funds Flowing Back into Emerging Markets / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Jack Dzierwa writes:Although not proof positive of better times ahead, we were encouraged this week to see a break of a negative trend in the money flows into emerging markets funds.
For the week ending November 5, there were net inflows of $413 million into emerging markets stock funds. This is a significant improvement from the previous week, when there were net redemptions of $1.6 billion. Two weeks ago, the net outflows from emerging markets funds totaled $750 million.
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Monday, November 10, 2008
UltraShort SPYs Heading Higher as Stocks Slide / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
So far this morning the high at 91.11 in the UltraShort SPY (AMEX: SDS) hit the lower side of my original target zone of 91.10 to 91.60. Let's notice that just above current prices -- at 91.90-92.00--the SDS will smack into a powerful near-term resistance line from the late October peak (late Oct low in the SPYs), which if hurdled will argue that a new and powerful upleg commenced this morning at 84.25…that is heading for 116.00-118.00. (12:35 pm ET 91.13).Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 10, 2008
Stock Market Catches a Bottom / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The market is not acting as if it's ready to break down. A good catch by the bulls at the very bottom of the current triangles. I mentioned last night that the daily charts were strong and thus it can come as no surprise that we were higher today. It's so easy to say that the past two days spell doom for the markets but those daily's, being as strong as they are, were able to stop the bears from breaking this market down right at the bottom of those back and forth triangles.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 10, 2008
Gloom and Doom Folks Will Soon be Proven Wrong / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
If you stand to close to a painting you may never see the entire picture. Seen from a distance, the Rembrandt "standing" self portrait in Vienna (1652) shows the bold, confident appearance that is usually attributed to it. Click here… > Heavy Mellow. It is the same with the markets that we follow. If one concentrates only on the very short term they will not see the larger picture. The larger picture, the very long term picture as epitomized by the charts posted below is informing us that once again, THE GLOOM AND DOOM FOLKS WILL SOON BE PROVEN WRONG.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 09, 2008
Reaping the Derivatives Mania Whirlwind / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
"Reaping the whirlwind" for money manager and market strategist Jeremy Grantham in his latest no-nonsense commentary. Worlds different from most in the mainstream. Cheerleaders in upturns. Downplaying risks. Soft-pedaling reversals and still many in denial about the severity of today's crisis. The virtual certainty of a deep and protracted recession. The likely emergence of a changed world order at its end - for better or worse. The result of what Grantham calls "the poisonous wind we all sowed," and went on to explain it with his customary thoughtful analysis. Calling it like he sees it as one of the earliest to spot the current storm. Even though it arrived sooner and with more severity than he imagined. In that respect, it fooled some of the best and brightest but no longer the ones most credible.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 09, 2008
Stock Markets Attempting to Bottom Against Grim Economic Background / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Pretty grim out there. Where is the basis for current optimistic stock market views?
Markets may anticipate recovery, but how soon could that recovery be, given the depth of the problem? How many more stimulus programs are needed? How many more can be paid for now or later? Are we sowing the seeds of greater disaster later by adding more easy money to a problem that was caused in substantial part by easy money in the first place?
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Sunday, November 09, 2008
Stock Market Indices Teetering at the Edge of the Cliff / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Wiley Coyote Suspended in Air Over a Canyon - There is nothing left in the charts to suggest support for the S&P 500 index if it pierces the approximate 800 level (roughly 80 for its proxy SPY).
The index has been volatile within a range between generally 850 and 1,000 over the past few weeks.
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Sunday, November 09, 2008
Global Stock Market Rampant Buy Signals / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters): First deflation – then inflation“Deflation/Inflation. First deflation – then inflation. I don't have to convince you that we're now dealing with world deflation. Copper is down 35% this year, cotton down 32%, oil down 26%, platinum down 43%, orange juice down 44%, wheat down 35%, gasoline is now around $3 a gallon, stocks have collapsed, autos are cheaper, home prices have plummeted, suburbs are hanging out ‘for sale' signs. No price is firm – you can make an offer for anything, and you're likely to get it at your bid price.
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Sunday, November 09, 2008
Obama Victory Flashing a Stock Market Buy Signal / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
Welcome to Wall Street, Barack Obama. His victory signaled a change in US political direction, but the biggest election day rally ever – a surge of 4.1% in the S&P 500 Index on Tuesday – was quickly overshadowed by the grim realities of the worsening economic and earnings picture, resulting on Wednesday and Thursday in the S&P 500's biggest two-day loss (-10.0%) since 1987.
Mr Obama gave his first press conference as President-elect on Friday afternoon, summarizing a discussion he had had with his economic advisory team. He pledged to confront the US's economic crisis “head on” and said he wanted to see “a rescue plan for the middle class” that would include a new fiscal stimulus package. The week closed on a positive note as a late rush of buying on Friday left the stock market indices higher for the day, although still in the red for the week.
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Sunday, November 09, 2008
How Wars and Stock Market Rallies are Won / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
Imagine a war where the battalion leader says, "Charge". The battalion moves forward, but as they do, they turn around and see the leader retreating. What do they do next? First, fear grips them as they know the leader is running from what he perceives as a grave danger. At best, the battalion loses their fervor for winning the charge, or retreats like their leader.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 09, 2008
Stocks Technicals Point to Sustainable Rally Underway / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The good news is: The bottom indicators have been moving sharply upward suggesting a high likelihood of a rally lasting at least several weeks.
Short Term - Downside volume has been drying up.
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Saturday, November 08, 2008
Deaf, Dumb and Blind Economists Still Failing to Call Recession / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
More unintended consequences of the bailout. “When the government took over mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, taxpayers inherited more than just bad debts. They're also potentially on the hook for tens of millions of dollars in legal fees for the executives at the center of the housing market's collapse.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 08, 2008
Stock Market Indices Spike Higher in Last Hour For Strong Close / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
We had a volatile session, but it ended well with the indices not far off the highs for the day. In fact, the S&P 500 closed very near the highs for the day and it ended positively in what appeared to be late pre-weekend short-covering that affected the market in a positive note, and closed strongly particularly in the last 20-30 minutes.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 08, 2008
Stock Bull Market Being Born? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
With the election of a new President, it was an important week for the financial markets. Whether you were part of the 53% of Americans who voted for Obama or the 47% who voted against him, you've got to be thankful this bitter campaign has ended. A peaceful regime change is a great blessing that should not be overlooked.
The very next morning it was back to business as usual for the financial markets. Countless traders collated and analyzed all the information available to them to continue trying to best-position their capital for the future they believe is most probable. And prevailing sentiment was definitely morose. No matter who won on Tuesday, today's serious market and economic problems were going to linger.
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Friday, November 07, 2008
Will Fortune Favour the Brave in This Crisis Investment Climate? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
OVERVIEW - FORTUNE is said to favour the brave, but is it bold or foolhardy to venture back yet into bombed-out equity and other financial markets? A panel of investment veterans assembled by The Business Times was of the view, on balance, that now is indeed the time to be venturing back into the markets, although one expert was bearish to the point of suggesting that financial markets could yet be brought to a standstill by confusion over the valuation of assets. There was a consensus too that the worst is by no means over yet for the global macro-economy.Read full article... Read full article...