With two hours remaining in today's session, I can make a case that this morning's low at 25.21 in the Q's ended the decline from the Election Day high at 33.96. To trigger initial confirmations that such a low is in place, the Q's will have to climb and sustain above 26.65. However, with option expiration approaching during today's final hour, yet another spike to the downside would not surprise me -- that presses the Q's to my optimal target zone of 25.00-24.70 prior to my expectation of a wicked upside reversal.

The "bearish" scenario implies a plunge to or beneath the lower support line of the Oct-Nov down-channel. Usually, a major reversal in direction only will occur after one or other side of the channel is breached by 1-2% prior to a vicious pivot in the opposite direction. Let's see how it unfolds: a climb above 26.65 or a press to new lows beneath 25.00-24.70 prior to a rally that will wet the appetite of would-be Wall Street bulls.

By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com) , a real-time diary of Mike Paulenoff's trading ideas and technical chart analysis of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that track equity indices, metals, energy commodities, currencies, Treasuries, and other markets. It is for traders with a 3-30 day time horizon, who use the service for guidance on both specific trades as well as general market direction

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