Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Thursday, July 02, 2009
Stock Market and Dollar Upward Wedge Patterns - Signs of the times / Stock-Markets / CRB Index
Over the last 12 months, the USD and now US equities, have formed bearish upward wedge formations on the charts. Upward wedges are usually well defined patterns showing weakening upward momentum, hence the shape. These patterns are known to be very common in stocks during bear markets and were especially so during the period 1929 to 1932.
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Thursday, July 02, 2009
Stock Markets Jump Out Of The Gate Before Fading / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Despite the weakish US mortgage applications, ADP jobs and ISM numbers, it looks like your friendly fund manager is front running the perma-bull, expected 2nd half recovery green shoots story. He also went pilling into stocks at the off yesterday running the Dow up 133 points. Food stocks were the big winners with Kraft up 5% and General Mills raising its 2010 guidance. However stocks failed to maintain their upward momentum and pared their gains in low volume trading, following decidedly downbeat comments from GM (government motors) about creditor payments, weakness in financials and disappointing auto sales. Add to this too, the Governator I.O.U of California declaring a state of “fiscal emergency” put the pressure on.
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Thursday, July 02, 2009
Million Dollar Question, What's Next for S&P 500 Stock Market Index / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
S&P 500 has rallied over 40% in the last 3 months. It takes over 5 years under "normal" circumstances for such a rally to occur. But again, folks will say, it takes as many years for 50% downside as well. So, i will rest this discussion at peace.
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Wednesday, July 01, 2009
Rising Financial Markets See Brighter Times / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
It’s been a wild ride this past year, but the markets are now on the upswing. Following a rough year where most of the markets dropped sharply, then stayed dull for a while, they’re finally headed higher. Most important, these are significant rises.
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Wednesday, July 01, 2009
Faber & Greenspan: Shills for Fed Snake Oil on Deflation and Hyperinflation / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
"Just how can the Fed credibly promise to be irresponsible...?"
HERE'S A THOUGHT – that tiny handful of investors and analysts warning how Fed policy risks hyper-inflation are in fact doing the central bank's work.
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Wednesday, July 01, 2009
Investors Buying into a Stock Market with Falling Corporate Earnings / Stock-Markets / Corporate Earnings
Through its rhetoric and actions, the Obama Administration has made it clear that no matter the current or future costs, the federal government will not allow a collapse of the banking system. The resulting aura of certitude has, in turn, encouraged investors to roll the dice one more time. Some of these investors are likely trying to make good prior investment losses through speculative trading in U.S. equities. The surety of the government guarantee has sadly allowed them to overlook the fact that U.S. corporate earnings continue to fall.
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Wednesday, July 01, 2009
Yields in Stocks Versus Treasuries are Abnormally High / Stock-Markets / Dividends
The “yield” from stocks is simply the amount earned by the stock divided by the price that the stock trades at. So the “yield” on the S&P500 is the inverse of the P/E ratio, in percent.
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Wednesday, July 01, 2009
How to Profit From Japan's Stock Market Shareholder Crisis / Stock-Markets / Japanese Stock Market
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: KYOTO, Japan - Mention Japan and many people think of Geisha, castles and samurai. Mention investing in Japan and the image of an impenetrable wall comes to mind.
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Wednesday, July 01, 2009
Stock Market S&P 500 Index Trend Update for July 2009 / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Today I'm going to take another look at the S&P 500 Index. It appears that some of the rose coloring on traders' glasses is beginning to wear thin. Many more traders now perceive this as a two way trading market as opposed to a one way street we witnessed in March and April.
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Wednesday, July 01, 2009
Financial Markets Bi Annual Review / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
With the end of the second quarter it is important to take stock and review how various assets have performed so far in 2009.
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Wednesday, July 01, 2009
Stock Market Ends Second Quarter With a Whimper / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
The unexpected fall in US consumer confidence and a Fannie Mae report showing a rise in mortgage delinquencies startled still-sleepy markets yesterday. The Conference Board’s measure fell by nearly six points in June to 49.3, as both the current conditions and expectations indices fell. That spooked equities, with the Dow Jones going from up about 20 points to down 85 points in short order. The entrails of the confidence report were not encouraging.
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Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Is the U.S. Fed Juicing the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
Why has the stock market been on a 3-month tear when the economy is undergoing the worst economic contraction since the Great Depression? The S&P 500 has shot up 40% from its low on March 9 and the Dow Jones Industrials have followed close behind. Is this a typical bear market rally or is the invisible hand of the Fed goosing the markets?
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Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Financial Stocks XLF ETF at a Crossroads / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks
From a technical perspective, my eyes are focused on the Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF), which we notice is attempting to hurdle both the sharply declining 200 DMA (11.95) and key resistance between 12.35 and 12.70. If prices manage to break above the 12.35/70 resistance zone, then we should expect upside acceleration towards 14.00/50 thereafter. In that 40% of the XLF is compromised of JPM (12.2%), WFC (10.32%), BAC (9.64%) and GS (6.79%) and in that all of the aforementioned stocks show a similar bullish coil pattern (with the exception of GS, which has a more powerful set-up than the others).
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Tuesday, June 30, 2009
What Happened on the Banking Index Yesterday? / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks
Given the action on the Banking Index in the past week, it is only fair that I post an update on this index today.
The Banking Index has been one of those fascinating charts that has been amazing relative to support and resistance levels.
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Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Stock Markets To Finish The Quarter With Huge Percentage Gains / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
The September British Pound surged to the upside overnight despite news that the U.K. economy shrank more than previously forecast. The U.K. Gross Domestic Product report showed that during the first quarter the economy suffered its biggest contraction since 1958. Weakness was seen across the board in the economy as everything from construction to services showed some sort of weakness.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Stock Market Index Trading New Signal / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Official signal: CASH on SPX __ __ __ __
CASH on NDX __ __ __ __
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Consider the Components of Long-term Stock Market Returns / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
The raison d’être of investment or wealth management is to maintain, or hopefully improve, one’s standard of living, i.e. to earn a real return on the investment amount. This sounds easy enough if one considers that the S&P 500 Index (and its predecessors prior to 1957) delivered a nominal return of 8.7% per annum from January 1871 to June 2008. With an average inflation rate of 2.2% per annum over the period, this meant a real return of 6.5% per annum.
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Tuesday, June 30, 2009
What Happened to the Stock Market New Goldilocks Era? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
In 1999, when I wrote Riding the Bear – How to Prosper in the Coming Bear Market, I said the market was in a bubble, and that when it burst the subsequent bear market would be one of the worst since that of 1929-32.
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Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Inflationary Pressures and the MAE Faber Investment Strategy / Stock-Markets / Inflation
William Hester, CFA is a Senior Financial Analyst with the Hussman Funds, and he has written an interesting article that attempts to answer the question: "does the current economic backdrop yet have the characteristics that usually coincide with the end of secular bear markets?"
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Tuesday, June 30, 2009
A 20-Year Stocks Bear Market? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Long time readers know that I am a huge fan of the work of Neil Howe. His book, The Fourth Turning, was one of the seminal pieces of my reading over the last 30 years. And it has turned out to be stunningly prophetic. Uncomfortably so. A roughly 80 year cycle has been repeating itself for centuries in the Anglophile world, broken up into four generations or turnings. We have begun what Howe called many years ago The Fourth Turning.
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