Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, October 28, 2019

Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My in-depth analysis of 30th September 2019 Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct to Dec 2019 concluded in expectations for a probable deep correction during October which would set the market up for a santa rally into the end of the year -

Dow Stock Market Forecast Conclusion

Therefore my forecast conclusion as illustrated by the below chart is for the Dow to target a trend towards Dow 27,500 by the end of this year following a significant correction during October that could see the Dow trade as low as 24k.

Monday, October 28, 2019

A Stock Market New All-Time High Is Not Always Bullish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

There is a significant amount of frustration from the bulls and bears alike as the market has been basically in a trading range for many, many months. So, before we go into my expectations for the coming months, I want to review how we got here.

As the market began its rally off the December lows of 2018, my initial expectation was that we could top out as we headed into the March/April time frame.

Clearly, the market had other intentions as it extended the timing for my correction expectations, and in quite a similar fashion as to what we saw in 2014-2015. Yet, we are still well within the price target expectations I outlined at the end of 2018.

Monday, October 28, 2019

Stock Market Final Touch? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.

Intermediate trend –  Most likely building an intermediate top.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Monday, October 28, 2019

Three Stock Charts Every Investor Needs to See This Morning / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

Stocks broke upwards last week from the consolidation pattern we’ve been watching.

Sunday, October 27, 2019

Stock Market Dynamics Changing for Year End Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: QUANTO

Last week saw the US equity markets testing the all time highs and moving back a little. The action has been healthy. Markets are almost sanguinely comfortable that everything everywhere is doing great. The risks to the downside in economy seems not as important to investors.

We look at a plethora of charts and setups to drive the point which we have been making that market crash is not coming and we have saying that for over 6 months now. There might be a blip here and there but things are healthy.

Friday, October 25, 2019

Stock Market Trend Forecast October to December 2019 (2/2) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is part 2 of 2 of my in-depth analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the DJIA stocks index into the end of 2019. However, the whole of this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work. Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct to Dec 2019

• Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State
• Yield Curve Inversion Current State
• US Presidential Cycle 
• ELLIOTT WAVES 
• Short-term Trend Analysis
• Long-term Trend Analysis
• MACD
• VIX
• SEASONAL ANALYSIS
• Formulating a Stock Market Forecast
• Dow Stock Market Forecast Conclusion
• AI Stocks Buying Levels

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Thursday, October 24, 2019

Money Printing Fuelled Stocks Bull Market Hurtling Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock markets so far have confounded expectations for a deeper October correction by dutifully rallying for an assault on resistance, with the Dow trading to barely 0.5% of its all time high, all whilst the Trump and the Brexit chaos shows continue in the US and the UK. So how can this be? To once more iterate the general indices are on an exponential upwards curve, where deviations from the highs being buying opportunities for the fundamental reason of exponential money printing by whatever names it may go, QE, government bonds etc.. Governments of the world continue to print money that drives the exponential inflation mega-trend to which stock and other asset prices are leveraged.

Thursday, October 24, 2019

Stock Market New All-Time Highs By Year End - But, It May Not Be What You Expect / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

This market has been difficult for both the longs and the shorts for months now. While it has been unwilling to break down, it has also been equally unwilling to break out.

What makes me scratch my head even more of late is that the Fed has come to the table with its “not-really-QE-4” of $60 billion a month. For those that remember, QE1 was approximately $100 billion a month on average, QE2 was $75 billion, and QE3 was $85 billion. But, to see the Fed coming forth with this type of liquidity injection when the market is hovering just below its all-time highs is a bit surprising. Yet, the market is still unable to break out.

Wednesday, October 23, 2019

Stock Market Seasonal Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

SEASONAL ANALYSIS

The basic stock market seasonal pattern is after a weak Jan / Feb, strong March / April, a peak in May, down into June, a Strong July / August peaking in Sept for a wobble into October that sets the scene for a strong rally into the end of the year. 

Wednesday, October 23, 2019

What's Wrong With The Stock Market Smart Money? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

Jason Goepfert writes: Another one bites the dust

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index® is a popular indicator to watch for potential recessions ahead, and the latest reading shows a 2nd consecutive drop month-over-month.

The LEI hasn’t gone much of anywhere for a year, showing signs of plateauing. Its Bollinger Band has tightened to a near-record degree, showing that the index has flattened out over the past year.

Wednesday, October 23, 2019

US Stock Markets “Roll Over” On Earnings and Economic Data At Channel Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we near the end of October 2019, a very interesting price setup is taking place across many of the US market sectors recently.  We only have a total of about seven trading days left in October 2019 and the Financial Sector ETF is rolling over with what appears to be an Engulfing Bearish price pattern near price channel highs.  Additionally, the tech-heavy NASDAQ (NQ) has been mostly weaker compared to the ES and YM. 

On September 30, 2019, we published this research post that highlighted why our predictive modeling systems suggested the S&P 500 and NASDAQ market sectors would become much more volatile than the Dow Jones Industrials: MODELING SUGGESTS BROAD MARKET ROTATION IN THE NQ & ES. 

We believe this research is still very valid given the current price rotation near these price channel highs and given the potential that the Dow Jones stocks may become relatively stronger alternatives than the S&P 500 and NASDAQ sector stocks.

Tuesday, October 22, 2019

Stock Market VIX Analysis / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Nadeem_Walayat

VIX

VIX is in a falling range from 26 to 13. Which should be bullish for stocks. However, the pattern is resembling that of October / November last year, which was a prelude to the Decembers steep sell off. August saw a higher high and September a high low. So we could be witnessing the calm before the storm.

Tuesday, October 22, 2019

Stock Market Indexes Struggle and TRAN suggests a possible top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Nearing the end of October, traders are usually a bit more cautious about the markets than at other times of the year.  History has proven that October can be a month full of surprises.  It appears in 2019 is no different.  Right now, the markets are still range bound and appear to be waiting for some news or other information to push the markets outside of the defined range.

We still have at least one more trading week to go in October, yet the US markets just don’t want to move away from this 25,000 to 27,000 range for the Dow Industrials.  In fact, since early 2019, we have traded within a fairly moderate price range of about 3200 points on the YM – a rotational range of about 11% in total size.  Historically, this is a rather large sideways trading range for the YM – nearly 3x the normal volatility prior to 2015.

Monday, October 21, 2019

Stock Market Stalls: Caution Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: QUANTO

Equity markets have once again moved to all time highs esp in the US but action at the top is dicey and looks suspicious.

Key stocks are analysed below and we can see the stall in momentum which is often a harbinger of things to come.

AMZN- Stalling under the 50-day moving average after back testing the up trend line. AAPL - Stalled out all week, flat to Friday's close. FB - Stalling at last months high, trying to bounce off the 50-day moving average but below the trend line. GOOGL - Stalling at resistance NFLX - Stalled and reversed at the channel line. Falling below the 50-day moving average. MSFT - Stalling at resistance, falling below the 50-day moving average today. ADBE - Stalled at the 50-day moving average, falling below the topping pattern neck line.

Monday, October 21, 2019

Stock Market Crash Setup? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team has been attempting to answer the question that seems to be on everyone’s minds right now – are we setting up another Black Monday type of event in the global markets and what should traders/investors know before the event potentially takes place.  Our research team has spent the past few weeks trying to better understand the global economic events that took place 8 to 20+ years before the Black Monday event happened and have been particularly interested in the 10+ years just before the Black Monday event.  Additionally, we’ll focus on the recovery event that took place after the Black Monday collapse completed.

In Part I of this article, we attempted to highlight some of the similarities of today’s global economic world to the scenario in the early 1980s.  Many of you may not be old enough to remember the 1960s or 1970s, but at least one individual on our research team is old enough and was actively trading in 1985.  His interpretation of the economic events prior to the 1987 Black Monday collapse and how they may be similar to today highlight some very interesting facets for our readers.

Monday, October 21, 2019

More Stock Market Congestion (Distribution) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.

Intermediate trend –  Most likely building intermediate top.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Monday, October 21, 2019

Revisiting “Black Monday Stock Market Crash October 19 1987 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Back in the day, for those of you that are old enough to remember and have experienced one of the most incredible trader psychology driven stock market decline in recent history. 

The difference between “Black Monday” and most of the other recent stock market declines is that October 19, 1987, was driven by a true psychological panic, what we consider true price exploration, after an incredible price rally. 

It is different than the DOT COM (2001) decline and vastly different than the Credit Market Crisis (2008-09) because both of those events were related to true fundamental and technical evaluations.  In both of those instances, prices have been rising for quite some time, but the underlying fundamentals of the economics of the markets collapsed and the markets collapsed with future expectations. Before we get too deep, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.

Thursday, October 17, 2019

Stocks Are Preparing For a Blow Off Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

Stocks broke the all-important level of 3,000 on the S&P 500 yesterday. The market is now forming a triangle formation.

Thursday, October 17, 2019

Stocks Don’t Care About Trump Impeachment / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Robert_Ross

“Would Trump’s impeachment crash the market?”

A reader asked me after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced a formal impeachment inquiry into President Trump’s dealings with Ukraine.

A lot of people have a vague sense that impeaching Trump is bad for stocks. Political chaos means stocks go down, right?

Well, no—not necessarily. If history is any guide, fundamentals and not politics drive the stock market.

Thursday, October 17, 2019

Stock Market Future Projected Cycles / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

I mentioned this already so just ignore if you are not interested, but just a reminder that you registered to get my weekly free analysis, you have likely read my articles or watched the analysis videos which we have been nailing nearly every market move this year, but for some reason, you stopped? 

Why did you stop? This is IT! This is the ONE THING…that SINGLE trading and investment newsletter that’s going to turn into the greatest decision you’ve ever made.