Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, February 07, 2020
Stock Market Broad Sector Rotation Starts In 60+ Days – Part I / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We have been writing about the strong potential for a deeper market rotation in the US and global markets for well over 60+ days. In fact, our researchers predicted an August 2019 breakdown date based on Super-Cycle patterns that, eventually, pushed into 2020 as the US/China trade negotiations and other global news kept global markets in a low volatility bullish trend throughout the end of 2019.
We’ve highlighted some of our research posts over the past 30+ days to help illustrate the technical and price patterns that our research team has identified and shared.
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Thursday, February 06, 2020
Is the Stock Market Out of the Woods Now? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Having opened with a sizable gap, stocks scored sizable gains yesterday. The reversal higher makes one think that we’ve seen a bullish turn. And the short-term outlook has certainly turned more to the bullish side of the spectrum. Let’s assess what the recent market developments mean for stocks’ technical outlook.We’ll start by looking at the current week in progress (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
Wednesday, February 05, 2020
Gold and Stock Market Barometric Bedlam / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger charts last month's market moves. Back in the 1980s, I had a boss that was right out of Monty Python. A Canadian by birth, he was the son of a very wealthy English nobleman who spent a number of years in Brazil as CEO of Brazilian Traction, where he was raised by servants and nannies and attended private boarding school at Upper Canada College in Toronto.
"James" was a thoroughly English gentlemen on the outside but a scandalous hell-raiser in private quarters. I recall him at a squash club banquet standing on the dining table wrapped in the Union Jack, tumbler of gin in hand, reciting a totally X-rated, four-stanza limerick that began "The once were three nuns from Birmingham (pronounced BIR-MING-UM), and here is the story concerning 'em. . .". It was his saintly wife, "Jane," who solemnly declared in the wee hours of one debaucherous morning in his basement that we had better "cease and desist with this unnecessary drinking," never revealing what might be the definition of "necessary drinking," a conundrum left unsolved for nigh-on thirty-five years.
The reason I mention this is that as we await the reopening of Chinese markets after the New Year's week closures, I am sure that many investors are engaged in "necessary drinking" as they await either a) the crash in virus-infected markets or b) the arrival of the Chinese central planner trading desk and legion after legion of stock-buying roboticized carbon units pumping up stocks to prevent a total disintegration of all things Chinese next week.
I, for one, haven't decided which it will be but I went into this weekend happier than I have been in a month because there is only one thing worse than certainty of losing money and that is the UN-certainty of losing money. The stress of reacting to events is a good stress but worrying about the nature of events is bad stress and bad stress kills. We now know that global growth is tumbling and about to get worse and that the coronavirus is a global pandemic and that both events are good for what we own and bad for what we are short (or have already sold).
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Wednesday, February 05, 2020
Stock Market Upside Momentum Building / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
Price action on Monday found a temporary bottom and then proceeded to bounce back into the 50-61.8% Fib retracement region before rolling back into the expected 3250-3240 support area on the Emini S&P 500 (ES).
The main takeaway is that short-term momentum has changed somewhat in regards to the daily 8/20EMA trending environment since the October 2019 breakout acceleration playbook. This means that February will likely be some sort of inside month until price action expands the range either above 3337.5 or below 3181. In other words, it’s a "shake-and-bake" horizontal structure (i.e., consolidation) in a pre-defined range, so traders can look to capture bi-directional setups. If thinking more intermediate-term, catching anything that is an extreme, like 3181 or 3200, could potentially turn into a double bottom/higher lows setup that one could ride. This is very preliminary still, but it’s something to consider for February and the rest of Q1 if the structure actually develops that way.
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Tuesday, February 04, 2020
Stock Bottom Reached? Don’t Bet the Farm Just Yet / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
As the markets grapple with the coronavirus story, the stock market is no exception. Jittery and volatile trading is what we’ve seen on Friday, January 24 already. In the heat of the moment, it’s easy to sell first and ask questions later. But times like these call for stepping back and evaluating the technical picture across several timeframes instead.
That’s exactly what we’ll do, starting with the monthly chart. Before jumping right into the chart to examine what January brought us (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com), it’s my pleasure to employ my experience and analytical views to your benefit – both within Stock Trading Alerts and Oil Trading Alerts. You can learn more about me by taking a look at my bio.
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Tuesday, February 04, 2020
Gerald Celente Speaks Out on Iran, Coronavirus, Gold and Global Protests / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back the one and the only Gerald Celente, publisher of the renowned Trends Journal. Mr. Celente is a frequent guest here on the Money Metals podcast and perhaps is the most well-known trends forecaster in the world and it's always great to have him on with us.
Gerald, thanks for the time again today. I guess we can still say happy new year. Welcome back to you.
Gerald Celente: Well thank you and thank you for your kind words.
Mike Gleason: Well, Gerald, here we are at the start of another year and a new decade also. At the start of the last decade in 2010 we were in the aftermath of the Financial Crisis that looked like the reckoning for all the debt, the expansion of government and the irresponsible, crooked behavior of folks on Wall Street wouldn't be too far away, the Tea Party movements and Occupy Wall Street were indications that people had just about enough. But here we are. The debt bubble is much larger, there have been exactly zero accountability or restraint on Wall Street, government is much bigger and more expensive than other and somehow most Americans have been lulled back to sleep. Stock prices are up. The president is talking about the greatest economy ever. Clearly the lessons of the last financial crisis don't seem to have stuck. What do you make of that and what are you expecting for the decade ahead given that people seem to have short attention spans and a high tolerance for nonsense? Can the powers that be keep the wheels on this sorry system for another decade?
Monday, February 03, 2020
Dow Jones Utility index could trade like the FANGs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: readtheticker
The world is changing because the US FED is considering capping the US 10 yr interest rate under the US inflation rate, or negative real interest rates forever. Further massive destruction of the US dollar purchasing power. Previous Post: Formula for when the great stock market rally ends In the previous post this blog said:
When valuations for the boring water company or the boring electric company is trading like your Facebook, Apple, Amazon or Netflix or Google (ie FANG) you know something is wrong. This is when a seriously over valued market is screaming at you. Of course the reader must understand in a world where money printing goes super nuts (Zimbabwe style) the stock market may go hyper inflationary and picking a time frame for a top is never a good idea, but we are not there yet. There is no Ben Bernanke helicopter money to the masses yet (ie MMT).
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Monday, February 03, 2020
Stock Market Correction Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Limited correction underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Saturday, February 01, 2020
Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The first part of my overall stock market outlook for 2020 was posted at the start of January, now here is the full analysis that concludes in an overall forecast for the Dow into the end of 2020, a gauge against which to measure relative strength or weakness as the stock market trends through the year.
This analysis was first been made available to Patrons who support my work: Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020
So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Saturday, February 01, 2020
Stock Market Combination Topping Pattern Is Setting Up / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has highlighted a number of technical and other factors that point to a very real potential of a major market top setting up across the global markets. We’ve highlighted a number of research articles over the past 30 to 45 days that clearly illustrate our interpretation of the US and global markets.
Our research team believes the Coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan china will cripple economic expansion and consumer economic activity in China and much of SE Asia over the next few weeks and months. If the virus spreads into India, it could quickly target large portions of India’s economic capabilities. We are very early into this potential pandemic event. The growth rates reported by China suggest only a 2~3% death rate, yet an almost exponential growth rate for the number of invested. It started off below 100 about 10+ days ago and is now almost ready to break 10k.
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Friday, January 31, 2020
Asian Stock Markets Analysis - China, Hong Kong, Japan, Australia, India, Taiwan / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: EWI
Hi Reader,
Asia stocks are extremely volatile right now. To help you take advantage of the big moves, our friends at Elliott Wave International have scrambled together a rare free week of their subscription services that cover Asia.
You can see what's going on -- what the waves are saying -- at no cost to you.
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Thursday, January 30, 2020
Deep Analysis and charts: Risk Market ignore global pandemic fears / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Submissions
There has been two major events in January. First there was the brief intensification of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which quickly ramped back down. Secondly there is the coronavirus epidemic in China, which in the space of a week has spread from Wuhan and imprinted itself globally at pandemic levels, bringing much of China to a standstill when it would usually be celebrating the Lunar New Year.
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Thursday, January 30, 2020
Are We Setting Up For A Stock Market Waterfall Selloff? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Most traders understand what a “Waterfall event” is if you’ve been trading for more than 3 years. Nearly every downside price reversion event initiates in a breakdown event (the first tier of the waterfall event) which is followed by additional deeper waterfall price collapses. Almost like price breaks lower, finds support, settles near support, then breaks lower targeting deeper price support levels.
SPY Daily Chart
This example SPY chart from October 2018 through December 2018 highlights this type of event almost perfectly. With each tier in the waterfall event, price searches for new support levels as price weakness drives price lower throughout each breakdown event. We’ve highlighted these breakdown events with the MAGENTA lines drawn on this chart.
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Wednesday, January 29, 2020
The "Everything Bubble" Just Burst. Here's Why / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Bob Moriarty of 321gold reflects on how government actions in the financial and public health spheres will pop market bubbles.
I was in Vietnam from July 1968 until March 1970. From November 1968 until July 1969 I was flying the O-1 Birddog as a forward air controller (FAC). Back then I used to believe all the bull our government puts out. Now, when Trump says the Iranians fired missiles at a US base in Iraq and none of our troops were injured, I know at once he was lying. And sure enough, two weeks later we find that 34 soldiers were injured.
Governments lie about everything and as a result we are about to pay a terrible price. All of them lie.
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Tuesday, January 28, 2020
Is an Accommodative Fed Bullish for the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
"In 2007-2008, the Fed cut rates 10 times, but the S&P 500 still declined 58%"
Many investors heed every utterance from the Federal Reserve, hoping they hear a clue about interest rates. They assume that a fall in interest rates means higher stock prices, while rising rates will push stocks lower.
First, Elliott Wave International's research shows that the Fed follows the bond market. It doesn't lead it.
Secondly, EWI's research reveals that stock prices have risen during trends of lower and higher rates. Likewise, there have been periods of falling stock prices during trends of lower and higher rates too. In other words, there is no consistent correlation between the trends of stocks and interest rates.
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Monday, January 27, 2020
THIS ONE THING Will Tell Us When the Bubble Economy Is Bursting… / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back Michael Pento, President and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies. Michael's a well-known money manager, market commentator and author of the book, The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market. He's been a regular guest with us over the years and we always love getting his fantastic insights.
Michael, thanks for the time again today, and welcome back.
Michael Pento: It's always a pleasure to be on with you. Thank you for inviting me back on the program.
Mike Gleason: Well, we're having a hard time seeing a big move higher in metals prices until one of two things happen. We'll start here. The first would be a pickup and safe haven demand. In our view there is too much investor complacency given the circumstances as has been the case for a while now, equity market valuations are sky high. Now we've got an election coming up, and there is at least some chance our next president will be an avowed socialist. This does not seem like the time for investors to be all in on risk trades, but we suppose the only thing that really matters is the Fed. They are going to do whatever it takes to keep the party in the stock markets going.
Monday, January 27, 2020
Stock Market, Gold Black Swan Event Begins / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As the Asian markets opened on late Sunday, traders expected a reactionary price move related to the threat of the Wuhan virus and the continued news of its spread. The US Dow Jones futures markets opened close to -225 points lower on Sunday afternoon and were nearly -300 points lower within the first 25 minutes of trading. Gold opened $10 higher and continued to rally to a level above $15 higher.
If this is early price activity, or a reactionary price move, related to fear of what may come, then the warnings signs are very clear that global traders and investors believe this virus outbreak may very well turn into a major Black Swan event.
Our research team believes a 5% to 8% rotation should be considered a normal reversion range where price may find immediate support and attempt to rally from these support levels. Anything beyond 10% may set up a much bigger price reversion event, something akin to a Black Swan event. Therefore, we are advising our friends and followers to take the necessary steps to protect your wealth and assets as this move continued to extend.
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Monday, January 27, 2020
US Presidential Cycle Stock Market Trend Forecast 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
During 2019 the Dow finally breached resistance along a series of sub 28k highs of the past 2 years that propelled the Dow towards 29k.
This video is part 5 of a series of 6 that concludes in an overall trend forecast into the end of 2020.
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Sunday, January 26, 2020
Stock Market Correction Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Limited correction underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Friday, January 24, 2020
Stock Market January 2018 Repeats in 2020 – Yikes! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team caught a very interesting price pattern that correlates with the Put/Call ratio. We are alerting our friends and followers with this research post of this exciting, yet unconfirmed, set up today.
In late 2017, the US stock market rallied from July through December with moderately low volatility throughout this span of time. Near the end of 2017, the US stock market price activity stalled, then began a renewed price rally in early 2018 (see the first BLUE & YELLOW BOX on the chart below). Then, in January 2018, a very broad market reversion event took place which ultimately resulted in a very broad market correction in October through December 2018 of just over 20%.
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