Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, October 23, 2019
Stock Market Seasonal Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
SEASONAL ANALYSIS
The basic stock market seasonal pattern is after a weak Jan / Feb, strong March / April, a peak in May, down into June, a Strong July / August peaking in Sept for a wobble into October that sets the scene for a strong rally into the end of the year.
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Wednesday, October 23, 2019
What's Wrong With The Stock Market Smart Money? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
Jason Goepfert writes: Another one bites the dust
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index® is a popular indicator to watch for potential recessions ahead, and the latest reading shows a 2nd consecutive drop month-over-month.
The LEI hasn’t gone much of anywhere for a year, showing signs of plateauing. Its Bollinger Band has tightened to a near-record degree, showing that the index has flattened out over the past year.
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Wednesday, October 23, 2019
US Stock Markets “Roll Over” On Earnings and Economic Data At Channel Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we near the end of October 2019, a very interesting price setup is taking place across many of the US market sectors recently. We only have a total of about seven trading days left in October 2019 and the Financial Sector ETF is rolling over with what appears to be an Engulfing Bearish price pattern near price channel highs. Additionally, the tech-heavy NASDAQ (NQ) has been mostly weaker compared to the ES and YM.
On September 30, 2019, we published this research post that highlighted why our predictive modeling systems suggested the S&P 500 and NASDAQ market sectors would become much more volatile than the Dow Jones Industrials: MODELING SUGGESTS BROAD MARKET ROTATION IN THE NQ & ES.
We believe this research is still very valid given the current price rotation near these price channel highs and given the potential that the Dow Jones stocks may become relatively stronger alternatives than the S&P 500 and NASDAQ sector stocks.
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Tuesday, October 22, 2019
Stock Market VIX Analysis / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Nadeem_Walayat
VIX
VIX is in a falling range from 26 to 13. Which should be bullish for stocks. However, the pattern is resembling that of October / November last year, which was a prelude to the Decembers steep sell off. August saw a higher high and September a high low. So we could be witnessing the calm before the storm.
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Tuesday, October 22, 2019
Stock Market Indexes Struggle and TRAN suggests a possible top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Nearing the end of October, traders are usually a bit more cautious about the markets than at other times of the year. History has proven that October can be a month full of surprises. It appears in 2019 is no different. Right now, the markets are still range bound and appear to be waiting for some news or other information to push the markets outside of the defined range.
We still have at least one more trading week to go in October, yet the US markets just don’t want to move away from this 25,000 to 27,000 range for the Dow Industrials. In fact, since early 2019, we have traded within a fairly moderate price range of about 3200 points on the YM – a rotational range of about 11% in total size. Historically, this is a rather large sideways trading range for the YM – nearly 3x the normal volatility prior to 2015.
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Monday, October 21, 2019
Stock Market Stalls: Caution Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: QUANTO
Equity markets have once again moved to all time highs esp in the US but action at the top is dicey and looks suspicious.
Key stocks are analysed below and we can see the stall in momentum which is often a harbinger of things to come.
AMZN- Stalling under the 50-day moving average after back testing the up trend line. AAPL - Stalled out all week, flat to Friday's close. FB - Stalling at last months high, trying to bounce off the 50-day moving average but below the trend line. GOOGL - Stalling at resistance NFLX - Stalled and reversed at the channel line. Falling below the 50-day moving average. MSFT - Stalling at resistance, falling below the 50-day moving average today. ADBE - Stalled at the 50-day moving average, falling below the topping pattern neck line.
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Monday, October 21, 2019
Stock Market Crash Setup? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has been attempting to answer the question that seems to be on everyone’s minds right now – are we setting up another Black Monday type of event in the global markets and what should traders/investors know before the event potentially takes place. Our research team has spent the past few weeks trying to better understand the global economic events that took place 8 to 20+ years before the Black Monday event happened and have been particularly interested in the 10+ years just before the Black Monday event. Additionally, we’ll focus on the recovery event that took place after the Black Monday collapse completed.
In Part I of this article, we attempted to highlight some of the similarities of today’s global economic world to the scenario in the early 1980s. Many of you may not be old enough to remember the 1960s or 1970s, but at least one individual on our research team is old enough and was actively trading in 1985. His interpretation of the economic events prior to the 1987 Black Monday collapse and how they may be similar to today highlight some very interesting facets for our readers.
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Monday, October 21, 2019
More Stock Market Congestion (Distribution) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Most likely building intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com
Monday, October 21, 2019
Revisiting “Black Monday Stock Market Crash October 19 1987 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Back in the day, for those of you that are old enough to remember and have experienced one of the most incredible trader psychology driven stock market decline in recent history.
The difference between “Black Monday” and most of the other recent stock market declines is that October 19, 1987, was driven by a true psychological panic, what we consider true price exploration, after an incredible price rally.
It is different than the DOT COM (2001) decline and vastly different than the Credit Market Crisis (2008-09) because both of those events were related to true fundamental and technical evaluations. In both of those instances, prices have been rising for quite some time, but the underlying fundamentals of the economics of the markets collapsed and the markets collapsed with future expectations. Before we get too deep, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.
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Thursday, October 17, 2019
Stocks Are Preparing For a Blow Off Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Stocks broke the all-important level of 3,000 on the S&P 500 yesterday. The market is now forming a triangle formation.
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Thursday, October 17, 2019
Stocks Don’t Care About Trump Impeachment / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Robert_Ross
“Would Trump’s impeachment crash the market?”
A reader asked me after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced a formal impeachment inquiry into President Trump’s dealings with Ukraine.
A lot of people have a vague sense that impeaching Trump is bad for stocks. Political chaos means stocks go down, right?
Well, no—not necessarily. If history is any guide, fundamentals and not politics drive the stock market.
Thursday, October 17, 2019
Stock Market Future Projected Cycles / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I mentioned this already so just ignore if you are not interested, but just a reminder that you registered to get my weekly free analysis, you have likely read my articles or watched the analysis videos which we have been nailing nearly every market move this year, but for some reason, you stopped?
Why did you stop? This is IT! This is the ONE THING…that SINGLE trading and investment newsletter that’s going to turn into the greatest decision you’ve ever made.
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Thursday, October 17, 2019
Weekly SPX & Gold Price Cycle Report / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Today I want to talk to you about the SP500 because it’s on the verge of making a very significant move. We could experience a 15% rally or a 15% decline and it could be just around the corner.
Let me recap on both the short-term top this month, and then a look at the bigger picture of what happened last October through December and if we are going to see that happen again. There is the possibility we get a massive rally if the market breaks to new highs. The market is loaded and ready for action. Whichever way it breaks will have a strong impact on precious metals and bonds. Make sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.
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Thursday, October 17, 2019
What Makes United Markets Capital Different From Other Online Brokers? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Travis_Bard
In recent times, there seems to be a strategic shift from the small shady market environment to a more controlled and fully developed ecosystem. One company that is doing so well, especially with the continuous growth in the independent broker market generally is United Markets Capital. United Markets Capital is a fast-growing online broker that has been under the radar for some time now. People seem to want to find out what makes the company different from other online brokers out there. David Goldberg, the co-CEO of the company, answers this question in details in a recent interview he granted.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 16, 2019
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Long-term Trend Analysis
The past 2 years have seen repeated failures to decisively breakout to new highs resolving in significant corrections. Last year's failure resolved in a major downtrend from 27k to 21.7k. Are we in for a similar fate this year?
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Wednesday, October 16, 2019
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
ELLIOTT WAVES
My analysis of Feb 2019 concluded in expectations for a 5 wave bull run during 2019 targeting new all time highs of around 28k.
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Wednesday, October 16, 2019
Stock Market Roll Over Risk to New highs in S&P 500 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: QUANTO
As global risks continue to rise and collect, equity markets rise as wave of bond market flows lift the risk markets globally. As the old saying goes, buy equities when there is blood on the streets. With Turkey fighting in Syria, risks are tilted to the downside for equity markets.
we remain in a fragile period where the possibility of a phased trade deal may not be enough to bring buyers into the markets. With earnings season due to start next week, anxious investors will soon have even more to worry about.
We analyse some charts and key fundamental data points.
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Tuesday, October 15, 2019
Dow Stock Market Short-term Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
TREND ANALYSIS
Short-term Trend Analysis
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Tuesday, October 15, 2019
US Major Stock Market Indexes Retest Critical Price Channel Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
News, again, drives the US stock market and major indexes higher as optimism of a US/China trade agreement floods the news wires. As we’ve been suggesting, the global markets continue to be news-driven and are seeking any positive news related to easing trade tensions and capital markets. We believe any US/China trade deal would be received as very positive news by the global capital markets – yet we understand the process of achieving the components of the “deal” would likely still be 6 to 24 months away.
Still, with the strength of the US economy and the potential that some deal could be reached before the end of 2019 setting positive expectations, the US stock market and major indexes rallied last Thursday and Friday (October 10 and 11). As the long holiday weekend sets up with no trading on Monday, it will be interesting to see what is potentially resolved between President Trump and the Chinese before the markets start to react on Sunday and Monday nights. Make sure up opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.
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Tuesday, October 15, 2019
Stock Market Bears Back In Extinction Mode / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Ricky_Wen
The second week of October showcased a vigilant effort from both bulls and bears in realizing their short-term targets/goals. However, in the end, the bulls won the key battles again with the massive bull engulf daily candlestick (2881.75-2954 on the Emini S&P 500) on Thursday. In essence, the market was able to do the standard lower high/daily 20EMA rejection during early week back into the 2880-2900 first target zone, but the bears were unable to sustain that momentum into the second target zone of 2850-2860. Overall, the bulls have now completed the higher lows/double bottom setup, and the earnings week acceleration to the upside seems to be occurring.
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