Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Wednesday, December 04, 2019

Gold, Silver and Stock Market Big Picture: Seat Belts Tightened / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger offers his latest insights into the markets and his investment strategy as 2019 winds down.

"Gold is money; everything else is credit." —J.P. Morgan

Dating back to the mid-80s, and usually around the end of November, I begin to formulate strategies and portfolios looking out to the upcoming New Year, taking into account technical, fundamental and geopolitical factors in an effort to avoid career-ending draw-downs while posting a respectable degree of performance.

Being a player in both the commodity and equity arenas, it is no surprise that over the past forty years of covering precious metals and stocks, the landscape has changed in a manner that defies the term "evolution." A better term to describe the metamorphosis in the credit and equity markets, particularly since 2009, would be the use of the term "deformation," as government-sponsored intervention has thrown a toxic curve ball at the analytical batter's box. The days where charts of the Dow Jones and five-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth could be coupled with few bank-generated reports on the economy to arrive at a bullish/bearish stance are gone forever, joining the dodo bird and human traders on the list of extinct species. Whereas the two primary drivers of market volatility used to be fear and greed, the only driver left today is policy, as in central bank usage of financial markets to govern final demand.

Tuesday, December 03, 2019

Is The Current Stock Market Rally A True Valuation Rally or Euphoria? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team has been warning that the US stock market price rally over the past few months has been more of a zombie-land price rally than a true valuation rally.  Our researchers believe the continued push higher has been more about capital seeking safety away from foreign risk and into US Dollar based assets than it has been about anything fundamental or valuation based.  Over the past few days, our researchers identified another rally like this that happened recently and wanted to highlight the eventual outcome of this type of Zombie-Rally. Before you continue, take a couple of seconds and join our free trend signals email list.

Zombie-Rallies happen in the market when there are really no other alternatives but to “keep doing what seems to have been successful over the past few months or years”.  A good example of this is the DOT COM rally that continued to push higher and higher even though investors and traders could clearly see the wheels were coming off the train and companies were not able to achieve profits to measure up to proper valuations.  This is a measure of GREED becoming a driving force behind investor sentiment.  Who’s going to go against the markets when the trend bias is continuing to push higher and the risks of shorting far outweigh the risks associated with following the herd.

Monday, December 02, 2019

Stock Market Liquidity & Volume Diminish – What Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As the Thanksgiving holiday passes, traders should begin to understand that liquidity and volume in the US and global markets typically begin to diminish over the next 30 to 45+ days.  Typically, between mid-November and early January, trading volumes weaken dramatically as institutional and retail investors move away from the markets in preparation for year-end celebrations and tax planning.

Historically, the month of November is vastly more positive than negative in terms of overall price action.  Over the past 21 years in the NQ, a total of 15 months have resulted in an average of +122.75 pts whereas only 6 months have resulted in an average of -194.83 pts.  This suggests the downside price moves, when they happen, are nearly 40% larger than the average upside price move for November.  So far for 2019, the NQ is +320.25 pts for November 2019.

Sunday, December 01, 2019

Stock Market Where Are We?  / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.

Intermediate trend –  Most likely building an intermediate top.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Thursday, November 28, 2019

Stock Market 100% Measured Moves May Signal A Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

One type of Fibonacci price structure we use to attempt to measure price trends and identify potential tops/bottoms is the “100% Measured Move” structure.  This is a price structure where a previous price move is almost perfectly replicated in a subsequent price trend after a brief period of retracement or price correction.  These types of patterns happen all the time in various forms across multitudes of symbols to create very solid trading signals for those that are capable of identifying trends and opportunities using this technique. If you want my daily analysis and trade ideas, be sure to get my updates by joining my free trend signals email list.

The first thing we look for is a strong price trend or the initially confirmed reversal of a price trend.  We find that these trending price ranges and initial “impulse trends” tend to prompt 100% measured moves fairly accurately.  The explosive middle-trend is where one can’t assume any type of Fibonacci 100% measured move will happen.  Those explosive moves in a trend that tend to happen in the middle of a price trend are what we call the “expansion wave” of a trend and will typically be 160% or more the size of the initial impulse trend.

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

$EWC iShares MSCI Canada ETF Long Term Cycles & Elliott Wave / Stock-Markets / Canada

By: ElliottWaveForecast

Firstly the EWC instrument inception date was 3/12/1996. The iShares MSCI Canada ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of large and mid-sized companies in Canada. This is of course reflected in the price. The best Elliott Wave reading of the long term cycles in $EWC iShares MSCI Canada ETF must presume some lower prices that did not exist prior to the ETF fund inception date.

Shown on the monthly chart, the bullish cycle from all time lows is believed to have ended in November 2007. This is mostly in line with many other broad based ETF’s and indices that ended larger cycles near that time. Likewise the steep pullback lower into the March 2009 lows replicated the pullbacks in other ETF & indices instruments. This pullback was strong enough to suggest it had corrected the cycle up from the all time lows. The analysis and commentary continues below the EWC Monthly chart.

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Stock Market Range-Bound Into The End Of 2019? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Two of our favorite charts for following the US markets are suggesting the markets are range bound headed into the end of 2019.  The news may continue to push the price higher as the overall bias has continued to be to the upside.  Yet, our Fibonacci predictive modeling system is suggesting the current price trend has begun a “scouting party” type of move which may end in a moderate price correction fairly quickly.

Monday, November 25, 2019

The Death Of Hedge Funds At A Time We Will Need Them / Stock-Markets / Hedge Funds

By: Avi_Gilburt

With the latest news of Louis Bacon’s closing down his hedge funds, we are seeing further evidence of the difficulties hedge funds have been having during recent years.

But, if you think about the counter-intuitive nature of this trend, it is actually quite interesting. Let me take a step back and walk you through what I am thinking.

Monday, November 25, 2019

Stock Market Topping Behavior / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.

Intermediate trend –  Most likely building an intermediate top.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Sunday, November 24, 2019

Consumer Discretionary Sector and Corporate Bonds On Verge of Sell-off / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

I have been warning of a peak in the markets and a continued capital shift in the global economy that continued to push the NASDAQ and DOW towards new all-time highs while the foundations of the global markets continued to weaken. 

I authored dozens of research posts regarding this phenomenon over the past 90+ days.  Yet the clearest signs of this event may already be present in these Consumer Discretionary Sector and Corporate Bonds charts.

Consumers drive economic activity and corporate debt is often a measure of sustainable debt function within a functioning economy.  When consumers tighten their belts and exit the economy in some form and Corporate debt is viewed as “more toxic” than “opportunistic” – something has changed in the global economy where a portion of the active consumer engagement of that economy is waning or has already left the building.

Friday, November 22, 2019

Adaptive Predictive Modeling Suggests Stock Market Weakness Into 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is suggesting the Transportation Index will fall to levels near $10,000 over the next 2 to 3 weeks which would indicate moderate price weakness in the US stock market and the global stock market. 

Our ADL predictive modeling system attempts to model future price activity by finding and mapping critical price and technical elements within the historical price action.  In a way, this is like mapping the future by attempting to learn from the past. You can get all of my trade ideas by opting into my free market trend signals newsletter.

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Why Record-High Stock Prices Mean You Should Buy More / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Stephen_McBride

Nobody wants to be the schmuck who bought stocks at the tippy-top.

Did you check your 401(k) this week? If so, you surely noticed US stocks hit new all-time highs. And the S&P 500 is now on track for its best year since 1996.

How does this make you feel in your gut? Are you happy stocks are achieving new highs? Or does it scare you... tempt you to sell all your stocks… and run for cover?

Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Plethora of Potential Financial Crisis Triggers / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2019

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The US-based bond market is in tragic condition. All the bonds in US financial markets reek of rigged prices and inflated values. It is not a single bond sector, but rather all bond sectors that are in deep trouble, against a background of multi-year economic recession. The USTreasury Bonds, given the over $1.0 trillion in supply and widespread absence of buyers, deserves a 10% yield. The stolen missing $21 trillion amplifies the vacant value, from a grand crime scene. It is a wonder that investigator Professor Skidmore of Michigan State Univ has not been charged with financial terrorism. The USTBond market is teetering, kept afloat by overnight enormous slugs of fake money, which in early November was over $250 billion on a daily basis. If it was put onto the USFed balance sheet, on an increasingly frequent basis, then it is called QE. Better get real, and call it what it actually is – INFINITE Q.E. FOREVER. The Gold price is preparing the next launch platform.

Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Trade News Still Relevant? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.

Intermediate trend –  Most likely building an intermediate top.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Sunday, November 17, 2019

Dow Jones Stock Market Cycle Update and are we there yet? / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: readtheticker

Today the Dow and the SP500 are making new all time highs. However all long and strong bull markets end on a new all time high. Today no one knows how many new all time highs are to go, maybe 1 or 100+ more to go, who knows! So are we there yet? readtheticker.com combine market tools from Richard Wyckoff, Jim Hurst and William Gann to understand and forecast price action. In concept terms (in order), demand and supply, market cycles, and time to price analysis.  Cycle are excellent to understand the wider picture, after all markets do not move in a straight line and bear markets do follow bull markets. 

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

How to Use Price Cycles and Profit as a Swing Trader – SPX, Bonds, Gold, Nat Gas / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

News does drive certain market events and we understand how certain traders rely on news or interest rates to bias their positions and trades.  As technical analysis purists, so to say, we believe the price operates within pure constructs of price rotation theory, trend theory, technical indicator theory, and price cycles.  We’ve found that technical analysis distills many news items into pure technical trading signals that we can use to profit from market swings.

Price is the ultimate indicator in our view.  Price determines current trends, support/resistance levels/channels, past price peaks and troughs and much more.  When we apply our proprietary price modeling and price cycle tools, we can gain a very clear picture of what price may attempt to do in the near future and even as far as a few months into the future.  Price, as the ultimate indicator, truly is the mathematical core element of all future price activity, trends, and reversions. Before you continue reading make sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

New Evidence Futures Markets Are Built for Manipulation / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation

By: MoneyMetals

The recent price smash in precious metals is frustrating for goldbugs. It is even more infuriating for those who look at the fundamental reasons to own gold and silver and see prices falling anyway.

That’s why it’s worth explaining once again the real purpose of the futures markets, where prices are set. Some recent revelations about Bitcoin futures will help.

The CME launched a Bitcoin futures contract in December of 2017, and many cryptocurrency fans cheered. Those who cheered expected “institutional” money to pour into Bitcoin. Their mistakes were in assuming the institutions would be making long bets on Bitcoin and the futures market would be free and fair.

Monday, November 11, 2019

If You Want Trump Out, You Need To Sell Your Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

While reading of the title of this article may cause you to make certain assumptions about what you are about to read, I can assure you that this is not a politically motivated article. In fact, politics has absolutely nothing to do with the analysis and conclusions presented herein.

I want to start with the assumption that we have spoken about so often, and that it is social mood which directs our actions in life, including our willingness to buy stocks. As Robert Prechter noted in a study he published in 2012 on this topic, “[s]ocionomic theory proposes that unconscious social mood regulates social actions.

Monday, November 11, 2019

Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Stock Market Investing / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

This current market environment is very reminiscent of the 2006-08 market environment where price rotated into weakness on technicals and continued to establish new all-time price highs in the process – creating what we are calling a “zombie-land melt-up”.  This very dangerous price action is indicative of money chasing a falling trend.  Where technicals and fundamentals are suggesting that price is actually weakening quite substantial, yet the process of price exploration is continually biased towards the upside as investors continue to pile onto the back of the beast expecting a further melt-up.

Let’s take a look at what happened to the ES and Gold in 2006 and 2007. But, wait before you continue reading make sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.

Monday, November 11, 2019

Stock Market Cycles Peaking / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.

Intermediate trend –  Most likely building an intermediate top.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.