Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, July 19, 2012
End of the Bernanke Put is Here / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Graham_Summers
For well over a year, even after Ben Bernanke admitted that the consequences of QE outweighed the benefits, the financial media world is awash with claims that QE 3 is just around the corner. It doesn’t matter than it’s been over a year. Nor does it matter that the Fed has staged 10 FOMC meetings without launching more QE, everyone claims QE is coming.
Thursday, July 19, 2012
Markets Kicking and Screaming, Gold Bottom in Place / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
By: HRA_Advisory
With summer doldrums well and truly upon us markets have been drifting lower on low volume and trying to hold their May lows. Most metals and certainly gold have performed better and seem to have bottoms in place.
After such a long bear run it's not likely we will get a huge bounce during the summer when so many are trying not to think about the market. Not every stock is falling however. As we note in the updates there are three companies on the HRA list that have been getting a lot more attention from traders and several others that are getting traction based on results to come. That isn't much but it is an improvement. We don't know yet how "real" any of these discoveries are, but new finds are the shortest route to renewed investor interest in the sector.
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Wednesday, July 18, 2012
Markets Turning Against QE, What About the Gold Price? / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Jan_Skoyles
For many months now we have been writing about Quantitative Easing (QE) and disregarding it pretty quickly. As with the gold price manipulation debate, few people were eager to join us on our side of the sound money fence.
However, it now seems that we no longer have to use basic economic theory and continuous arguments to explain why QE is so useless and dangerous. People and organisations are working it out for themselves. Several reports and studies have been released of late reiterating our beliefs with solid evidence. Even better, we are now seeing an interesting change in the mainstream media. I note that many British journalists this weekend were less than impressed with recent decisions to inject a further £50bn into the UK economy.
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Wednesday, July 18, 2012
Peter Schiff Warns America Heading Towards Next Crash Worse than 2008 Collapse / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: John_Rolls
John Rolls submits: According to author and investor Peter Schiff, the U.S. economy is heading for an economic crash that will make 2008 look like a walk in the park. Stimulus programs can delay this day of reckoning, but only for so long and only at the expense of making the eventual meltdown much, much worse.
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
The New York Fed Confirms U.S. Economy Runs on Zombie Money / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Raul_I_Meijer
The world is waiting for more of those cryptic messages from the head of the Fed, who today listens to the name Ben Bernanke and speaks on Capitol Hill. Today may not be an FOMC announcement occasion, but there's still the eternal hope that Ben will give a sign, even though it will undoubtedly be excruciatingly small and ambiguous, that more free public money is on the way for the financial system. There's a nice report out on how and why that works. But first, to give some perspective, here's this from UPI today:
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
Cape And Tobin Say Sell!! Bubbleomics Says Buy!! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Andrew_Butter
I recently got into trouble for having the temerity to question the divine orthodoxy of CAPE, reference Tom Armistead’s excellent article about “The Disciples”. http://seekingalpha.com/...An indignant disciple berated me for questioning the divine wisdom of my betters and I was told in words of one syllable that CAPE is for predicting real rate of return for a minimum of ten years in the future; so I should kindly keep my snide comments about the recent performance, or lack of, to myself.
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Tuesday, July 17, 2012
Markets Liquidity Cycle Reaches A Turn / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
It appears that FXE may be finished with its corrective bounce, or nearly so. There are a couple of ways to label this pattern and the chart shows the most conservative wave pattern. I am tempted to re-label, but we have time to evaluate what transpires over the next three weeks. Tomorrow is day 43 of the liquidity cycle and a turn date. Remember, I had mentioned that we have been seeing significant turns on or near dates divisible by 43. This may be one of them.
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
Stock Market Relative Strength Today / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Submissions
Ed Carlson writes: Certain sectors of the market are known as being market leaders; financials, technology, small caps, etc. Technicians have long-known that without participation by those “market leaders”, rallies in the broader averages won’t be able to sustain themselves. Others, often called defensive sectors, are said to “outperform” in a down market; utilities, healthcare, consumer staples, etc. The term “outperform” should not be equated with “profitable”. It simply means these sectors will do better than others in a particular environment (bull or bear market). Knowing which groups are outperforming gives us an important clue as to which direction the broader market is headed. So how can we tell which sectors are outperforming? Ratio Charts.
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
Stock Market Sliding Sideways...Endlessly It Seems.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Jack_Steiman
Wednesday and Thursday of last week we saw the market take a move lower that appeared to be the beginning of a breakdown. The bears were licking their chops as the time was here for them. Then along comes Friday and a gap up that ruins the best laid plans. The market surges with the daily charts becoming very neutral once again. Today, instead of following through to the upside, we fall again. Nothing major, but, of course, no follow-through of any kind. And so it goes. Endlessly it seems. We are to the point, or at least I know I am, where I am begging for some type of breakout or breakdown that shows something more directional in nature. This whipsaw is so boring it makes it tough to get through the day, extremely boring as the volatility is gone. We simply move back and forth between a few hundred Dow points.
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Tuesday, July 17, 2012
To QE or Not to QE, Disinflation May Be In the Cards / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
In its most recent Meeting Minutes for June 19-20, which were released on July 11th, the FOMC gave no indications of another round of stimulus or QEIII. Nevertheless, the monetary policy making committee did reiterate that it would continue its “Operation Twist” program of bond repurchases through the end of this year.
While the immediate reaction to the FOMC Meeting Minutes depressed precious metals prices and drove the U.S. dollar higher, markets corrected afterwards. The price of gold dropped marginally, and the price of silver actually rose by 10 cents per ounce.
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Monday, July 16, 2012
Sorry Stock Market Bulls, The Fed Will Not Engage in More QE. / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Graham_Summers
For well over a year now, I’ve been stating that the Fed will not be able to engage in Quantitative Easing (QE) unless systemic risk hits (think another 2008). My reasons for this are as follows.
First off, the political consequences of hitting “print” (inflation) have made themselves evident to everyone. Indeed, Bernanke was talking about this point as far back as May 2011. The below quote is from a Q&A session with Bernanke during that month.
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Monday, July 16, 2012
The Ultimate Stock Market Death Cross / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
And now, for the main event:
Finally I want to share with you news that the S&P is on the verge of an “ultimate” death cross (see chart below). This is where a 50-month moving average (currently at 1152) falls below the 200-month average (currently 1145). The Trend blogspot (link) tries to make some sense of this very rare event. They note that the averages came close to crossing in 1978 towards the end of the 1965-82 secular bear market, but just held. By contrast Japan suffered a monthly death cross in 1998 and 14 years later we are still in the firm embrace of the bear. Watch this space.
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Sunday, July 15, 2012
Beginning Sovereign Debt Crisis Endgame, Attack of the Zombie Banks and the New Religion of Europe / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
By: John_Mauldin
About this time two years ago I began to seriously work with Jonathan Tepper on our book Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changed Everything. It came out the following March. I remember vividly that in November of that year, as crisis after crisis hit Europe, and the first of about 20 summit meetings which were supposed to solve the crisis was convened, that Jonathan and I worried that the book would not be out in time to actually catch the Endgame before it happened (at least in Europe).
Sunday, July 15, 2012
Stock Market Significant Top, Downturn to Send Prices Into an Abyss / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Darah_Bazargan
The broad market averages are now revealing overwhelming evidence that a significant top is upon us. And in the coming weeks, I fully expect the world to witness a dramatic downturn that sends prices into an abyss.
Get ready Folks, as this upcoming event will be a force not to reckon with, and for those who deny such could suffer major losses in their investment portfolio.
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Sunday, July 15, 2012
Stock Market Uptrend Looks Corrective / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Tony_Caldaro
On a week to week basis it does not look like the market had done much: SPX 1355 last friday, SPX 1357 this friday. During the week, however, the market had quite a roller coaster ride. A gap up opening on tuesday was sold as the SPX hit 1362. Then the market hit its low for the week thursday morning at SPX 1325. A full reversal followed, and in just over 24 hours the week ended with a marginal gain. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.10%, but the NDX/NAZ were -1.05%. Foreign markets were also mixed. Asian markets lost 1.9%, Europeans markets gained 0.3%, and the DJ World index was -0.6%. Economic reports for the week continued their winning streak, with positives outpacing negatives 6 to 5. On the uptick: consumer credit, the PPI, WLEI and the monetary base, plus the trade deficit and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: wholesale inventories, export/import prices, consumer sentiment and the budget deficit expanded. Next week we get a look at industrial production, the FED’s beige book and housing.
Saturday, July 14, 2012
U.S. Federal Reserve Delivers 50% Higher Stock Market Pavlovian Premium / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: David_Knox_Barker
The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of New York has just released what is essentially a stock market manipulation bragging rights report. Based on their research, they have concluded that stock prices would be 50% lower if they had not worked their magic with interest rates, quantitative easing (QE) and various other tools in their monetary toolbox, as announced at the regular Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. The report concludes that the U.S. Federal Reserve, by providing sufficient liquidity, has produced a stock market valuation pavlovian premium since 1994. They even produced a few charts to prove it.
Saturday, July 14, 2012
Where Do the Stock Markets Go From Here? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Tony_Pallotta
This week's macro view I want to spend focusing on the current market. However you want to describe it, Friday's market was odd. The best way I can describe the price action is "someone" big in the FX market did "something" big. The ramp at the open in the EUR and subsequent USD selloff on no news is something I have never seen before.
And since the FX markets are bigger than the index equity futures, I believe that is where the fuel came for the "rally." And where it gets really odd and highlights how confused and exhausted traders are is once the move was done, the day was basically over. Low volume ensued and everyone seemed afraid to fade the rally.
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Saturday, July 14, 2012
Stock Market Nothing Bullish...Nothing Bearish....Still! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Jack_Steiman
It's so easy to get bearish when the market is down three days in a row. The market being an emotional machine it's very easy to get caught up in the very short-term and play on what you think will therefore be coming. Instead of simply being bullish or bearish, maybe it's best to take a look at those daily index charts and see what the message is in them. On this six-day down trend, you can see none of the major indices went below key support at the 200-day exponential moving average. The Nasdaq 100 was actually the one index that tested it. The S&P 500 and Dow didn't come close. All of the key exponential moving averages have to go away with force in order for the bears to be in full control. Forget that there's also good support not too far below those key exponential moving averages. That would also have to be broken by the bears, but at the very least, you have to remove all of those moving averages. And that just didn't happen. Close but no cigar, my friend.
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Friday, July 13, 2012
Stocks Bear or Bull Market, Too Close to Call / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Toby_Connor
Is it a bear market, or is it a bull market, that is the question.
On one hand Europe is obviously in a recession. China is slowing dramatically, and the US economy is clearly in 'stall mode' at best, and slowing rapidly at worst. That alone would suggest that a bear market has begun.
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Friday, July 13, 2012
Euro Zone Crisis Vs the Stock Market 4 Year Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
By: Clif_Droke
Investors are worried that this summer will witness a repeat of the summer debacles of 2010 and 2011. The stock market has itself vulnerable to negative news from overseas as well as earnings disappointments. Is the market’s recent behavior a portent of worse things to come? In this commentary we’ll try and determine whether the market will fulfill the bears’ expectations or disappoint them. Read full article... Read full article...