As I alluded to in my previous report both stocks and gold are due to mean revert. Short-term the stock market is getting significantly oversold and if we get a down day tomorrow I would expect some kind of bounce off of the 1600 level. If that bounce fails and we break below last Thursday's low it should confirm that stocks have begun an intermediate degree correction.

Since I think there is significant risk that the cyclical bull market that started in 2009 is now topping I would take a break of the $1600 level as confirmation that an intermediate level decline has begun.

Based on how artificially far the Fed has driven this rally, this should be a quite significant decline, possibly even filling the gap from January 2.

If one has retirement funds invested in the general stock market I think after four years and a 153% gain it's probably time to say "close enough" and exit this Frankenstein monster of a market that the Fed has created.

Toby Connor

Gold Scents

GoldScents is a financial blog focused on the analysis of the stock market and the secular gold bull market. Subscriptions to the premium service includes a daily and weekend market update emailed to subscribers. If you would like to be added to the email list that receives notice of new posts to GoldScents, or have questions,email Toby.

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Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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