Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, November 03, 2013
Easy Money, Excess Liquidity, Anatomy of Market Bubbles and Crashes / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: John_Mauldin
John (Note to readers: A small number of readers reported receiving a blank email of today's Thoughts from the Frontline, and so we decided to resend the letter in order to ensure that all readers were getting it.)
The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits. – Albert Einstein
Genius is a rising stock market. – John Kenneth Galbraith
Any plan conceived in moderation must fail when circumstances are set in extremes. – Prince Metternich
You can almost feel it in the fall air (unless you are in the Southern Hemisphere). The froth and foam on markets of all shapes and sizes all over the world. It is an exhilarating feeling, and the pundits who populate the media outlets are bubbling over with it. There is nothing like a rising market to help lift our mood. Unless of course, as Prof. Kindleberger famously cautioned (see below), we are not participating in that rising market. Then we feel like losers. But what if the rising market is … a bubble? Are we smart enough to ride and then step aside before it bursts? Research says we all think that we are, yet we rarely demonstrate the actual ability.
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Sunday, November 03, 2013
Stocks Bull Market Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Tony_Caldaro
The market started the week by making new all time highs everyday until the FED concluded its FOMC meeting. Then after hitting SPX 1775 earlier that morning the market pulled back for the rest of the week. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.15%, the NDX/NAZ were -0.30%, and the DJ World index was -0.60%. On the economic front positive reports outpaced negative ones 9 to 6. On the uptick: industrial production, capacity utilization, Case-Shiller, business inventories, the CPI, the Chicago PMI, ISM manufacturing, the monetary base and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: pending home sales, retail sales, the PPI, consumer confidence, the ADP and the WLEI. Next week we try again for Q3 GDP (est. +1.9% to 2.4%), monthly Payrolls and PCE prices.
Saturday, November 02, 2013
Explanation for the Upward Tilt of US stock PE Ratios / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Joshua M Brown writes: One of my whip-smart readers, Cathy Leow, wrote in a really interesting take to explain the gradual and undeniable upward tilt for the PE ratios of US stocks in recent years. Cathy was formerly an economist and then a grains trader, she's been analyzing and investing in the equity markets since 2005.
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Saturday, November 02, 2013
Stock Market Ends Week Fractionally Off its All Time High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short:
The S&P 500 began the month with a daily gain of 0.29%, snapping a two-day decline and salvaging a small weekly gain of 0.11%. The high point of the week, and I mean literally, was Tuesday’s all-time closing high at 1,771.95, a level that was briefly surpassed shortly after Wednesday’s open, which was the first of the modest two-day mid-week slump. Today’s economic news was light, although the 10 AM better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing report assisted the index in reaching its 0.52% intraday high about 5 minutes later. Next week will bring us some major economic updates, most notably the first estimate of Q3 GDP, Personal Incomes and Outlays and the Employment Report for October.
Friday, November 01, 2013
It’s Still Too Early To Worry About the Fed Tapering / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Sy_Harding
Fed tapering will be a legitimate worry in a few months, but should not be yet.
Analysts and economists have been concerned for almost five years now about how Fed Chairman Bernanke would ever be able to manage a successful exit from the Fed’s massive QE stimulus efforts.
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Friday, November 01, 2013
Fiat Monkees and Golden Beatles / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: John_Mauldin
By Grant Williams
Madness!! Auditions. Folk & Roll Musicians-Singers for acting roles in new TV series. Running Parts for 4 insane boys, age 17-21. Want spirited Ben Frank's types. Have courage to work. Must come down for interview.
On September 8-10, 1965, this ad appeared in the Hollywood Reporter and Daily Variety, as two aspiring filmmakers, Bob Rafelson and Bert Schneider, inspired by what was to become one of the best and most influential musical films of all time, set about trying to cast the leads in a television show about four crazy kids living the rock 'n' roll lifestyle that the protagonists in the aforementioned film had made so appealing to the masses.
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Friday, November 01, 2013
Essential Investor Strategy for Profit & Protection / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: DeepCaster_LLC
“Facebook creates less business value than any other digital marketing opportunity ... [so] ... Don’t dedicate a paid ad budget for Facebook…
“We asked 395 executives from the US, the UK, and Canada how satisfied they were with the business value they get from 13 different online marketing sites and tactics. You’d expect a site boasting the largest audience and the biggest collection of data to fare well. But we found that Facebook offered less value than anything else on our list .... The least valuable tactic within Facebook? Those paid ads onto which Facebook has shifted focus.”
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Friday, November 01, 2013
Huge Cracks In US Financial Fortress, Petro-Dollar Final Death Throes / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Many analyst writers choose the Black Swan analogy to describe deeply ominous events in progress, with little forward notice. The analogy simply does not fit anymore, as an armada of black swans is more appropriate, spotted on regular and frequent sightings. The Jackass preference is to describe a series of major cracks in the financial fortress that defends the USDollar system and its decrepit USTreasury Bond shuttle buggy. The vehicle is overloaded with supply and bereft of investors, upheld by a printing press, explained by pure heresy. Its derivative coil on the undercarriage axel system is broken from the overdone leverage and hidden machinations. The integrity of the USD/USTB brand name was cast off the American coat of arms along with the Lehman Brothers killing to save Goldman Sachs, the adoption of Fannie Mae to conceal the fraud, and the AIG to contain the derivative payouts. The October Hat Trick Letter explains the Wall Street saga behind the scenes on the GSax rescue, managed by the USDept Treasury office. The US financial fortress died in September 2008, when the Jackass made the USGovt debt default forecast. What has happened in the following long five years has been an incredibly prolonged and desperate attempt, its creativity recognized, to extend life support to a corpse beset by necrosis and sclerosis, whose blood has turned toxic, lacking any oxygen (capital). The US nation has lost its way, no longer capable of comprehending capitalism. Its policy initiatives actively destroy precious capital on the banker altar, celebrating the dark side with celebrations of fire. The emaciated body economic is being prepared to be handled by the JPMorgue for processing.
Friday, November 01, 2013
Stocks Secular Bull and Bear Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short: Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? Without crystal ball, we simply don’t know.
One thing we can do is examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of possibilities. An obvious feature of this inflation-adjusted is the pattern of long-term alternations between up-and down-trends. Market historians call these “secular” bull and bear markets from the Latin word saeculum “long period of time” (in contrast to aeternus “eternal” — the type of bull market we fantasize about).
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Friday, November 01, 2013
QE Causing Bubbles in Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: As most readers know, I have been calling for a reduction in the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE) program for some time. My worry has been that the current level of quantitative easing is not doing much to help Main Street, and it is building potentially dangerous risks to our economy over the long term.
I’m worried about the future of this country, and yes, even my investments. I don’t want my hard-earned wealth to disappear due to mistakes made by the Federal Reserve in continuing to pump quantitative easing.
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Thursday, October 31, 2013
Protect Your Money From U.S. Debt Crisis / Stock-Markets / US Debt
By: EWI
Dear Reader
Ever heard of a wedding crasher? You know -- that distant “cousin” who shows up uninvited, hangs around the open bar all night, chugs down double-everythings and falls on his butt on the dance floor -- all before mysteriously vanishing and leaving his night of indulgence on the father of the bride’s tab.
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Thursday, October 31, 2013
How Can We Have Record Bad Loans And Record Excess Liquidity At The Same Time? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2013
By: Raul_I_Meijer
We can read these days that Spain has come out of its recession. The Bank of Spain reported last week that GDP expanded by 0.1% in Q3. But in a country with 26% unemployment and 55% youth unemployment, such statements are devoid of any real meaning. They're mere technicality niceties. Because if anything screams recession, it's those kinds of unemployment numbers. Moreover, where do you think that 0.1%, even it you would take it seriously, came from? It's really not that hard. Spain’s return to growth is due to a 15% fall in labour costs since the 2008 financial crisis. In other words: the rich side of the economy gets to look good at the expense of the poor side. A global phenomenon.
Thursday, October 31, 2013
Who Needs God, When We Have Money Printing Bankers / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: Doug_Wakefield
The snooze button; what a great invention. When you have awakened from a deep sleep, and know you can get ready in less time, just hit the snooze button. You know it will still awaken you for your test or to get ready for your 8:00 flight, but in the meantime, you can enjoy a few more moments of precious sleep.
However, if you keep hitting snooze and fail to look at the time, you can also awaken to find that the extra sleep has now placed you in a position where you missed the final exam or your flight. The rewards for a few extra moments of sleep have suddenly become very costly.
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Thursday, October 31, 2013
Inflation Stealth Taxes Consume Stock Market Gains and Retirement Plans / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: Dan_Amerman
What if bottom line investment results for a nation as a whole were very different than the great majority of investors understood? What if most long term investment plans were based on what could be quite easily shown to be "bad information"?
These questions may seem a little difficult to accept, because clearly, with the continuous stream of news, commentary and analysis about investment markets that are available 24/7 in newspapers, magazines, blogs and cable business news – such a discrepancy couldn't exist.
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Thursday, October 31, 2013
The Abnormal New Normal / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: HRA_Advisory
The US dodged a bullet and the Vancouver Subscriber Investment Summit had a great turn out on the same day. Coincidence? I think not.
Seriously; thanks from Keith, Lawrence and I for the great turnout. I'd like to thank the companies that presented as they make these days possible. Last but definitely not least I congratulate Nichola Vermiere and Katy Severs for organizing a great event and doing all the hard work to make sure it was well attended and went off without a hitch. People thanked me for a great show but It's Nichola and Katy that do the heavy lifting. I just show up and try not to trip over the microphone wire.
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Wednesday, October 30, 2013
How to Protect Your Portfolio as Government Debt Cripples America / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: Whenever I’m asked what I think has the biggest potential impact not only on the stock market, but also on our way of life, I always point to the continued increase in government debt.
Over the short term, the Federal Reserve has attempted to stimulate the economy partially by buying U.S. Treasuries. Under normal monetary policy, the Federal Reserve only directly impacts short-term interest rates. To reduce long-term interest rates, the Fed began buying U.S. Treasuries, pushing up the price and lowering the yield.
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Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Dow Closes at New All Time High Despite Academics, Journalists and Perma Bears Gibberish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Nadeem_Walayat
New Dow (DJIA) closing high of 15,680 illustrates that the fundamentals as perceived by academic economists, pseudo-economists (Journalists) and market commentators (sales men) which suggested that following the last stock market peak of Mid September, and in the light of dire news of U.S. government shutdown, possible debt default, QE tapering and slowing econcomy that the stock market looked set to have entered into another New bear market. The calls for such dire expectations reached their maximum intensity at the depths of the stock market correction by early October where many commentators in the mainstream press and BlogosFear could be found proclaiming that "The Top Was In", "The Top Was In", and continuing along a now very familiar argument for a debt deflationary death spiral, an argument that is more than 5 years and has YET to materialise whilst 'normal' and seasonally expected stock market corrections have ALWAYS resolved to new all time highs, just as was the case this time around.
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
Stock Market Ominous Omens / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Ed_Carlson
With new highs in the S&P 500 last week the bulls are excited again. Never mind the fact that the Dow industrials index is still well below its 9/18/13 high. When determining the health of the broad market technicians like to “look beneath the hood” to the performance of individual sectors particularly the more cyclical groups.
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Tuesday, October 29, 2013
Stock Market Waiting on the Fed at the Top of the Range / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: PhilStockWorld
Yes, it's a RISING channel!
That's why we are long-term BULLISH but short-term BEARISH. As noted by TraderStewie, this is a movie we've seen before, with the S&P making a power-move to the top of the channel, only to find resistance there that turned out not to be futile.
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Tuesday, October 29, 2013
Stock Market Bearish and Bullish Trend Outlooks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Chris_Vermeulen
My Stock market trend analysis is likely different from what you think is about to unfold. Keep an open mind as this is just showing you both sides of the coin from a technical stand point. Remember, the market likes to trend in the direction which causes the most investor pain.
Since the stock market bottom in 2009 equities has been rising which is great, but this train could be setting up to do the unthinkable. What do I mean? Well, let’s take a look at the two possible outcomes.
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