Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Stop Believing The 'Economy' Is The Same As The Stock Market - 12th Jul 20
Spotify Recealed as The “Next Netflix” - 12th Jul 20
Getting Ahead of the Game: What Determines the Prices of Oil? - 12th Jul 20
The Big Short 2020 – World Pushes Credit/Investments Into Risk Again - 11th Jul 20
The Bearish Combination of Soaring Silver and Lagging GDX Miners - 11th Jul 20
Stock Market: "Relevant Waves Vs. Irrelevant News" - 10th Jul 20
Prepare for the global impact of US COVID-19 resurgence - 10th Jul 20
Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction - 10th Jul 20
Declaring Your Independence from Currency Debasement - 10th Jul 20
Tech Stocks Trending Towards the Quantum AI EXPLOSION! - 9th Jul 20
Gold and Silver Seasonal Trend Analysis - 9th Jul 20
Facebook and IBM Tech Stocks for Machine Learning Mega-Trend Investing 2020 - 9th Jul 20
LandRover Discovery Sport Service Blues, How Long Before Oil Change is Actually Due? - 9th Jul 20
Following the Gold Stock Leaders as the Fed Prints - 9th Jul 20
Gold RESET Breakout on 10 Reasons - 9th Jul 20
Fintech facilitating huge growth in online gambling - 9th Jul 20
Online Creative Software Development Service Conceptual Approach - 9th Jul 20
Coronavirus Pandemic UK and US Second Waves, and the Influenza Doomsday Scenario - 8th Jul 20
States “On the Cusp of Losing Control” and the Impact on the Economy - 8th Jul 20
Gold During Covid-19 Pandemic and Beyond - 8th Jul 20
UK Holidays 2020 - Driving on Cornwall's Narrow Roads to Bude Caravan Holiday Resort - 8th Jul 20
Five Reasons Covid Will Change SEO - 8th Jul 20
What Makes Internet Packages Different? - 8th Jul 20
Saudi Arabia Eyes Total Dominance In Oil And Gas Markets - 7th Jul 20
These Are the Times That Call for Gold - 7th Jul 20
A Reason to be "Extra-Attentive" to Stock Market Sentiment Measures - 7th Jul 20
The Beatings Will Continue Until the Economy Improves - 6th Jul 20
The Corona Economic Depression Is Here - 6th Jul 20
Stock Market Short-term Peaking - 6th Jul 20
Gold’s Major Reversal to Create the “Handle” - 5th July 20
Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve - 5th July 20
Overclockers UK Custom Build PC Review - 1. Ordering / Stock Issues - 5th July 20
How to Bond With Your Budgie / Parakeet With Morning Song and Dance - 5th July 20
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 - 3rd Jul 20
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

Stock Market All Time Highs

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Nov 17, 2013 - 01:01 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

The market opened the week higher, tried to break out above SPX 1775, pulled back to 1761 Wednesday morning, then made all time new highs for the rest of the week. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.45%, the NDX/NAZ were +1.70%, and the DJ World index was +1.5%. On the economic front negative reports out numbered positive ones 7 to 4. On the uptick: wholesale inventories, the monetary base, the WLEI and the Treasury deficit improved. On the downtick: export/import prices, the NY FED, industrial production, capacity utilization, plus both the trade deficit and weekly jobless claims were higher. Next week we get a look at the Philly FED, CPI/PPI, Retail sales and the FOMC minutes.


LONG TERM: the bull market continues

After the bear market low in Mar09, and the five waves up to form Major 1 in early 2010, we tracked Primary wave I until it peaked in early 2011. The 22% Primary wave II correction that followed was quite steep for even the choppiest of bull markets. During this time we analyzed Primary I, determined the characteristics of this bull market, and this eventually led to our projected bull market high within the OEW 1779 pivot range. We had noticed the first waves were strong, third waves were weaker, and fifth waves were the weakest of the three impulse waves. Our price assumption was that Primary waves III through V would equal all of Primary I.

This week those characteristics changed when Primary III in both the SPX and NDX exceeded the length of Primary I. This relationship, as many EW pundits would know, is generally what is considered normal: good first waves, stronger third waves, and a variable fifth wave. The general rule also suggests that once a third wave exceeds the equality of the first wave the next Fibonacci ratio is 1.618 times wave 1. This would suggest that Primary III would end around SPX 2200. We are certain you have heard this number being touted on the internet.

We took a look back at all the bull markets since the early 1980′s. Each time the third wave of a bull market reached that sort of relationship or greater to the first wave, the first wave was relatively small in time and price. During this bull market the SPX doubled during its first wave and it took about two years. That is anything but small. These types of 1.618 relationships work much better with smaller waves. Nevertheless, nothing can be totally ruled out in this type of FED/QE driven bull market. However, from a Fibonacci Primary III to Primary I wave relationship there are still two significant price levels ahead, SPX 1970 and SPX 2070, before SPX 2214 should even be considered.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The SPX uptrend we have been tracking started back in August at 1627. This we have been labeling this low as the Major wave 4 low of Primary III. Thus far we have counted five waves up from that low. Four of which have completed and the fifth has been underway. Since this is Major wave 5 we are counting these five waves with an Intermediate degree: Int. i SPX 1730, Int. ii SPX 1646, Int. iii SPX 1775, Int. iv SPX 1746 and Int. v SPX 1798 thus far.

The market is gradually approaching the first resistance level for Int. wave v at SPX 1810. The next resistance level is at SPX 1826, which falls within the range of the next higher pivot: SPX 1828. After that we are looking at SPX 1849 and then SPX 1875. These levels are still quite a way from Friday’s SPX 1798 high/close. The next two OEW pivots above 1828 are 1841 and 1869. So these Fibonacci price levels and the pivots match up quite well. Technically we have seen an upturn in the daily MACD and RSI. But both are currently suggesting a potential negative divergence at Friday’s new highs. We will be monitoring this situation next week. Medium term support is at the 1779 and 1699 pivots, with resistance at the 1828 and 1841 pivots.

SHORT TERM

From the Major wave 4 SPX 1627 low Int. waves i and iii each unfolded in five Minor waves. Intermediate wave v is obviously unfolding in the same manor. Minor wave 1 rallied to SPX 1773, from the Int. wave iv low at SPX 1746. Minor 2 pulled back to SPX 1761 on Wednesday morning, and Minor wave 3 has been underway since then. Currently Minor 3 (37 pts.) is already longer then the somewhat short and quick Minor 1 (27 pts.). A Fibonacci 1.618 relationship would come into play in this situation, for these Minor waves, at SPX 1805. This is close to our SPX 1810 resistance level, which is based upon Intermediate waves. With a negative divergence building on the hourly chart we may see the market stall around those levels.

Short term support is at the 1779 pivot and SPX 1746, with resistance at SPX 1810 and the 1828 pivot. Short term momentum is displaying a negative divergence and quite overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level at SPX 1781.

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mixed on the week but generated a 0.8% gain thanks to the 7.7% gain in Japan.

The European markets were also mixed but ending with a 0.1% loss.

The Commodity equity group were mixed but gained 1.0%.

The DJ World index remains in an uptrend and gained 1.5% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds appears to be downtrending but gained 0.4% on the week.

Crude is downtrending and lost 0.5% on the week.

Gold is downtrending as well and lost 0.1% on the week.

The USD is uptrending but lost 0.5% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: the NAHB index at 10am. Wednesday: Retail sales, the CPI, Existing home sales, Business inventories and the FOMC minutes. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims, the PPI, the Philly FED and Leading indicators. Busy week for the FED. Tuesday: FED chairman Bernanke gives a speech at 7pm. Wednesday: FED director Gibson testifies before the Senate. Thursday: FED governor Powell gives a speech at 9:45. Friday: FED governor Tarullo gives a speech at 12:15. Busy week, wild bull market run, enjoy the weekend and the week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2013 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules