Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, November 15, 2013
Stock Market SPX Topping Valuations / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Zeal_LLC
2013’s incredible stock-market melt-up persisted this week, with the flagship American stock indexes surging to fresh record highs. The euphoric bulls continue to claim today’s lofty stock prices are justified by reasonable valuations. But nothing could be farther from the truth. Stocks are actually very expensive these days, with high valuations seen at major bull-market toppings. This makes for super-risky markets.
Successful investing demands buying low then selling high, so the price paid for any stock is absolutely critical to its ultimate return. Paying too much, buying even a great company’s stock when it is too expensive, virtually assures poor future gains at best. And overpaying when a bull market happens to be topping will lead to severe losses, as subsequent bears cut in half even the mightiest blue-chip stocks.
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Friday, November 15, 2013
Stock Markets Set Another All-Time High - Thank You, Janet Yellen! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short: The S&P 500 posted another all-time high with a closing gain of 0.48%. The popular financial press (e.g., CNBC, Bloomberg and Reuters) attributes the market’s merry mood to Janet Yellen’s congressional testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, where she has underscored her support for the Fed’s policy of Quantitative Easing.
Meanwhile, key segments of the real economy, represented by the likes of Cisco (down 13% after revenue warning) and Wal-Mart (forecasting a disappointing profit for the holiday season), are sending less happy signals.
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Friday, November 15, 2013
VIX Appears Finished, is the SPX Too? Black Friday? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Earlier I suggested that the SPX would probably stay glued to the top at least throughout the morning. The fact is, it lasted all day. The head fake usually stops at or very near the Cycle Top. In this case, it turned 5 waves into 9 waves through the extension of the rally.
Tomorrow is day 262 in a very mature Master Cycle and a Cycle Pivot day, to boot. The last time this happened was in July 21, 2011, when the indexes peaked, then proceeded to decline impulsively for 19 calendar days (12.9 market days). A similar decline starting tomorrow would go to December 3.
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Friday, November 15, 2013
QE - Fed Official Admits Failure / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Clif_Droke
Apologies are becoming increasingly common these days. From the ubiquitous “Twitter apologies” of celebrities to the mea culpas of scandalized politicians, the public has become used to hearing them on a daily basis. It came as a surprise, however, when a former Federal Reserve official apologized for the part he played in the ultra-loose monetary policy known as QE.“Confessions of a Quantitative Easer,” the Wall Street Journal published the public apology by former Fed official Andrew Huszar. The gist of the piece can be summarized in Huszar’s words: “We went on a bond-buying spree that was supposed to help Main Street. Instead, it was a feast for Wall Street.”
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Thursday, November 14, 2013
Stock Market Forecast 2014 - Crash or Rally? Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock markets continue to close at a series of new all time highs, all the whilst met with a continuation of bearish commentary not only that for an imminent bear market but even a stock market crash as illustrated by John P Hussman's highly regurgitated article warning of a 40-55% crash.
Thursday, November 14, 2013
Deflation, A Stock Market Crash And Then Christmas / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying things will happen in this order and timeframe. Just that they're going to if central banks and treasury departments don't up the ante. But they will. The question becomes more important now whether it'll be enough to continue keeping their - presumed - demons at bay. They can't go on forever. You can inflate asset price bubbles only so much. And then people will lose faith. So the order and timeframe is definitely an option.
Deflation is already here. Everyone's talking about lower inflation numbers than expected everywhere, but prices have been pushed up artificially in so many ways and in so many places that, even given the fact that they all ignore what inflation really is, it's getting profoundly absurd. Ironically, a few interesting lines this week came from an unexpected corner, the Telegraph editorial staff:
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Thursday, November 14, 2013
Deflation Is Coming (and It's Not What You Think) / Stock-Markets / Deflation
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Be careful out there.
The stock market rally that started in March 2009... The one that's taken us out of the Great Recession and to new highs... The rally that's driving sentiment indicators of people who benefit from rising financial assets directly, peripherally, or because they hope all boats rise with the market...
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Thursday, November 14, 2013
Why I’m Still Skeptical on Key Stock Stock Market Indices / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: DailyGainsLetter
Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: The companies on key stock indices are showing very troubling trends, which can cause them to slide lower and generate losses in investors’ portfolios. Don’t just look at the number on the surface.
As of November 8, 446 companies on the S&P 500 have reported their corporate earnings and 73% of them were able to show earnings above estimates. The corporate earnings growth rate was 3.4%. (Source: “Earnings Insight,” FactSet web site, November 8, 2013.)
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Thursday, November 14, 2013
Chart Shows Stock Market Investor Sentiment Out of Touch with Reality / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: To some people in the mainstream media, last week’s advance estimate on U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth was seen as a positive surprise.
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the advance estimate on U.S. GDP growth for the third quarter of 2013 was an annual rate of 2.8%. In the second quarter, real GDP growth was 2.5%. (Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, November 7, 2013.)
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Wednesday, November 13, 2013
Too Many Stock Market Dummies are Getting Rich... Huge Top Forming / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Clive_Maund
We know that the Fed and other Central Banks are printing money like there's no tomorrow to stop the fragile system from imploding, but the Little Guy is not seeing any benefit from it, instead the banks and elites are making even more money out of that which is spirited into existence and then handed to them on a platter by driving asset prices higher and higher. The Little Guy instead gets stuck with the bill as he becomes a victim of the inflation that results.
Wednesday, November 13, 2013
Stock Market Wednesday Worries – Fed Speak Not Helping? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: PhilStockWorld
Good golly, what a mess!
As you can see from Dave Fry's S&P chart, even yesterday's PATHETIC volume was too much for the bulls to maintain the illusion of strength. What little volume there was had 50% more decliners than advancers on the NYSE, led lower by energy stocks (as we expected) as oil collapses below that $95 line (as we expected).
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Wednesday, November 13, 2013
When Inflation Strikes Back / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Clif_Droke
Is there such thing as too little inflation? To listen to some economists the answer is an emphatic “no!” Fed chief Ben Bernanke certainly doesn’t believe in the concept of low inflation. Neither does ECB president Mari Draghi. But the question must be asked: with so much official opposition to low inflation, how will America’s middle class ever fully recover from its current malaise?Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 13, 2013
Bankrupting America When Leverage Fails - The Policies of Insolvency / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: Ty_Andros
Rarely, if ever, have I seen this level of INSANITY UNFOLDING in over 30 years watching and analyzing GLOBAL macroeconomics, politics and markets. To say it is frightening is to understate the combustible nature of the world economy and its ability to generate future growth and prosperity.
It can't and won't grow without massive reform of governments and their policies, which contrary to public opinion are deepening this MAN-MADE disaster. Conversely, times of great danger and risk offer the most outstanding investment opportunities if you can SEE IT and prepare yourself properly.
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Tuesday, November 12, 2013
Stock Market Meandering Along.....No Big Sellers Yet...... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Jack_Steiman
Since I wrote Friday's letter, we have had one single day of trading. That was today. So what great wisdom can I impart on you that's different from Friday. To be blunt, there is none other than to repeat what we already know to be true. We have two great forces at work against each other, and the market behaved in perfect step with that reality today. The Fed will continue to print seemingly forever, as he is very unhappy thus far with the economic recovery, if left to its own devices. He feels the need to throw endless dollars at the economy, while keeping short-term rates at zero. He doesn't see commodity inflation, so why not keep it going for now, until he does. Then it'll be Janet Yellen's problem anyway, and he can blame it on her. He's gone in January, so he will likely say little when he speaks Wednesday evening.
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Monday, November 11, 2013
Cyprus Crisis Stock Market Investing in Action / Stock-Markets / European Stock Markets
By: Casey_Research
By Nick Giambruno, Senior Editor, International Man
Stocks in Cyprus Are Down 98%—Time to Start Edging In?
Readers who have been with us for a while know that I've been hinting at the project Doug Casey and I have been working on in Cyprus for a while now. It's a project that dovetails perfectly with Doug's unique expertise. Now is the time to reveal what we have been up to.
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Monday, November 11, 2013
Get Ready for a Major Stock Market Pivot Reversal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The Pre-Market is losing what little gain that it had over the weekend. All of the analysts that I have reviewed this morning are looking for (at least) one more push higher. Despite all that, Elliott Wave analysis suggests the surge is over.
Admittedly, the decline so far is unimpressive. One of the results of the shallow decline is that it allowed the support levels to move higher, making it easier to break them. For example, the 50-day moving average is at 1709.70, less than 4% from the closing price on SPX.
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Monday, November 11, 2013
Stock Market Forecast 2014 Crash or Rally? Drone Wars and the Nuclear Apocalypse / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow stocks index last closed at a new all time high of 15,762. Many in the press and blogosfear immediately explained away the rise on the U.S. Non farm payrolls data, apparently blind to the fact that the stock market has been in a powerful upswing since the Mid October correction low, since which probability strongly favours stocks rising on any given day, and especially more so after a down closing day as was the case for last Thursday, and THAT Is why stocks rose Friday! MOMENTUMN and Upswing Probability.
Monday, November 11, 2013
Stock Market Top Are We There Yet? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the severe correction of 2007-2009 may have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - Important top formation is in the making.
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Sunday, November 10, 2013
Are Investors Too Bullish on Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Clif_Droke
Just how far has the bullish sentiment of independent investors recovered since the 2009 bottom? Pretty far indeed.
Below is a chart showing the cumulative AAII investor sentiment going back to 2006. As you can see, the typical small investor had a mostly bearish outlook on stocks from late 2007 through the end of 2009. The small traders then turned slowly bullish on equities in 2010 and have been increasingly more enthusiastic about stocks ever since. As of last week, this indicator made a new multi-year high which shows you just how much investor sentiment has rebounded. This has caused many to wonder if investors have become too bullish on stocks.
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Saturday, November 09, 2013
Stocks Bull Market Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Tony_Caldaro
After a rally Monday, pullback Tuesday, the market rallied back to the SPX 1775 all time high Thursday morning. Then the market had its biggest one day reversal in quite a while hitting SPX 1746 just before the close. Friday, however, the market completely reversed recovering all of Thursday’s loss ending the week at SPX 1771. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.70%, the NDX/NAZ were -0.25%, and the DJ World index lost 0.4%. On the economic front nearly all the reports were positive. On the uptick: factory orders, leading indicators, ISM services, Q3 GDP, consumer credit, nonfarm payrolls, personal income/spending, PCE prices, the M1 multiplier, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims declined. On the downtick: consumer sentiment and the unemployment rate rose. Next week we get reports Industrial production, the twin deficits and the NY FED.