Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, November 11, 2013

Stock Market Forecast 2014 Crash or Rally? Drone Wars and the Nuclear Apocalypse / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Dow stocks index last closed at a new all time high of 15,762. Many in the press and blogosfear immediately explained away the rise on the U.S. Non farm payrolls data, apparently blind to the fact that the stock market has been in a powerful upswing since the Mid October correction low, since which probability strongly favours stocks rising on any given day, and especially more so after a down closing day as was the case for last Thursday, and THAT Is why stocks rose Friday! MOMENTUMN and Upswing Probability.

Monday, November 11, 2013

Stock Market Top Are We There Yet? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the severe correction of 2007-2009 may have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.

Intermediate trend - Important top formation is in the making.

Sunday, November 10, 2013

Are Investors Too Bullish on Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Clif_Droke

Just how far has the bullish sentiment of independent investors recovered since the 2009 bottom? Pretty far indeed.

Below is a chart showing the cumulative AAII investor sentiment going back to 2006. As you can see, the typical small investor had a mostly bearish outlook on stocks from late 2007 through the end of 2009. The small traders then turned slowly bullish on equities in 2010 and have been increasingly more enthusiastic about stocks ever since. As of last week, this indicator made a new multi-year high which shows you just how much investor sentiment has rebounded. This has caused many to wonder if investors have become too bullish on stocks.

Saturday, November 09, 2013

Stocks Bull Market Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Tony_Caldaro

After a rally Monday, pullback Tuesday, the market rallied back to the SPX 1775 all time high Thursday morning. Then the market had its biggest one day reversal in quite a while hitting SPX 1746 just before the close. Friday, however, the market completely reversed recovering all of Thursday’s loss ending the week at SPX 1771. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.70%, the NDX/NAZ were -0.25%, and the DJ World index lost 0.4%. On the economic front nearly all the reports were positive. On the uptick: factory orders, leading indicators, ISM services, Q3 GDP, consumer credit, nonfarm payrolls, personal income/spending, PCE prices, the M1 multiplier, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims declined. On the downtick: consumer sentiment and the unemployment rate rose. Next week we get reports Industrial production, the twin deficits and the NY FED.

Saturday, November 09, 2013

Financials Suggest No Stock Market Correction Yet...... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Jack_Steiman

When a market is getting ready to correct for whatever reason, the financial stocks would be one of the leaders to the down side. Yesterday surely looked as if that was the case not only for the financial stocks, but for the entire stock market. Today, we saw exactly what we shouldn't see if that correction was upon us. Lost key moving averages were taken right back and in many cases, on large volume. Some of the financial stocks had huge ramps higher. Best candles in many months.

Saturday, November 09, 2013

A Critical Key to EndGame Investing / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013

By: DeepCaster_LLC

“FRANKFURT, Nov 7 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank cut interest rates to a record low on Thursday and said it could take them lower still to prevent the euro zone's recovery from stalling as inflation tumbles.

“The move took financial markets by surprise - the euro fell sharply in response while European shares rose.

“Underlining its support for the euro zone economy, the ECB also said it would prime banks with as much liquidity as required until mid-2015….

Friday, November 08, 2013

Stock Market Damage Report / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The big boys are doing damage control after the payroll numbers (entirely fictitious, of course). The bounce is happening faster than I can write about it. This is the third revision of my letter that started at 10:00 am.

The 50% retracement level is 1760.37, just beneath Short-term resistance. It appears that that resistance has stopped the retracement rally. This activity is merely to “run the stops” on any recent shorts who now show a loss. The best course of action is not to put stops on short positions. In fact, this is a good place to put in the final short positions.

Friday, November 08, 2013

Stock Market Warning: Margin Debt Hits Record-High $401 Billion / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: InvestmentContrarian

Sasha Cekerevac writes: I had an interesting conversation the other day with a friend of mine who asked a very compelling question: with margin debt in the equities market hitting a new all-time high—$401 billion on the NYSE in September—is this a sign of a market top?

To find out what this really means, we have to dig a little deeper into how this can affect the equities market.

Friday, November 08, 2013

Positive Trends Continue to Drive the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Donald_W_Dony

The S&P 500 has enjoyed one of the best prolonged upward trends of any global stock index over the past 55 months. And that long term trend shows no signs of slowing down.

On a 5-year perspective, the U.S. index is continuing to trade above its primary trend line. Only a decline below this line would suggest the bull market is finished (Chart 1).

Friday, November 08, 2013

Strong U.S. GDP Growth, But the Stock Market Tanks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: Before the opening bell we learned that Q3 GDP came in at 2.8%, the its highest compounded annual rate of change in six quarters. The markets weren’t impressed. The S&P 500 opened higher, hitting its 0.23% intraday high in the first fifteen minutes of trading. The index then sold off in in a pair of waves to close the day with a loss of 1.32%, the biggest decline since late August. Bloomberg speculated that the unexpected expansion in GDP could prompt the Fed to start tapering — the old “good news is bad news” meme. Was today a warm-up for tomorrow’s employment report?

Thursday, November 07, 2013

Can The Fed Prevent A Stock Market Crash In 2014? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Clif_Droke

Two questions that I'm commonly asked are: "Do you still expect the market to correct next year, even with all this liquidity?" And, "Can the Fed mute the effects of the cycles bottoming in October 2014?"

The first question can only be answered provisionally. If the stock market melts up heading into 2014, the odds of a crash will increase dramatically at some point before the Kress cycle bottoms toward the end of the year. The market has certainly shown signs that investor optimism is increasing on Wall Street, even if small retail traders haven't quite yet joined in on the exuberance.

Thursday, November 07, 2013

ECB Interest Rate Cut Surprises Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The ECB cut rates in a surprise move that sent the Euro plunging lower. 

ZeroHedge commented on this surprise move in an article entitled, In a Stunning Move, ECB cut rates by 23 bps, Euro Plunges. 

Thursday, November 07, 2013

Extraordinarily Dangerous Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Brian_Bloom

The Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing has given rise to an all time low in the money multiplier which, in turn, has a higher probability of rising than falling. Notwithstanding the recent explosion of personal debt, Chart #5 above shows an emerging propensity of the US public to want to save a higher percentage of their income and/or pay down debts.  Therefore, the most likely driver of a rising ratio will be a rise in savings relative to money stock which, in turn, will place a downward pressure on corporate earnings.  It follows that continuation of QE by the Fed will do nothing other than push the money multiplier ratio lower. Therefore QE is becoming impotent as a strategy for driving the US economy. By extension, if the savings rate continues along its early rising trend, this will likely be accompanied by recessionary conditions which, in turn, will place a downward pressure on Price:Earnings ratios.

Thursday, November 07, 2013

ECB's Tough Balancing Act, Bubbles vs Deflation / Stock-Markets / Euro-Zone

By: Gary_Dorsch

Today, a small group of central bank chiefs can meet in private and wield unprecedented power over global markets, economies, and wealth distribution. They are held accountable to the ruling politicians that in most cases have no respect for the principle of sound money. Instead, in Europe, the UK, Japan, the US, and elsewhere, central bankers have become intricately linked to monetizing government debts, and financing the expansion of the welfare state. As such, disciplined and independent central banking, a cornerstone to any hope for sound money and credit, has been relegated to the dustbin of history.

Wednesday, November 06, 2013

Stock Market Bulls Pull Back on Early Losses / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: PhilStockWorld

Monday’s nascent gain was challenged by early morning losses. However, bulls were able to regain the majority of such losses by the close of trade.

The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 had the best of the day’s action, going as far to post a modest gain. The Nasdaq 100 has a relative lead over the Russell 2000, and is attempting to regain relative strength against the S&P. If there is an index to gain tomorrow, one of these is it.

Wednesday, November 06, 2013

Stock Market Rally Goes on Hold / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: After a two-day advance, the S&P 500 took a small step back today. The index opened lower and sold off to its -0.69% intraday low just as the 10AM ISM Non-Manufacturing (aka Services) Report came in better than forcast. The index promptly rallied to its intraday high during the lunch hour. But today’s high was -0.05% below yesterday’s close. The index ended the day with a -0.28% loss. Today’s selling on so-so volume was probably attibutable to caution in advance of the big economic reports on Thursday and Friday, most notably our first look at Q3 GDP and the October Employment Report.

Wednesday, November 06, 2013

Bubble That Everyone Admits is a Bubble / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble

By: EconMatters

This is one of the few times where the benefactors or professionals who benefit from the bubbles, in this case created by the Federal Reserve, fully and openly acknowledge that stock prices and certain other asset classes are completely divorced from fundamental valuations.

Tuesday, November 05, 2013

Why November May Not Be So Safe Stock Market Investors / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: DailyGainsLetter

Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: Since the beginning of the year, key stock indices have provided investors with hefty gains; with the S&P 500 having increased more than 23% from January to October. Other key stock indices, like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ composite index, have provided similar returns.

Tuesday, November 05, 2013

VIX Master Cycle Low Means Falling Stock Prices Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

For most of the year, I believed that the March 15 low was the low for the year. It may remain the low for 2013, but a possibility exists that it may not be.

Let me explain.

Tuesday, November 05, 2013

ObamaCare and Inflation to the Stock Markets Rescue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Michael_Pento

The market averages continue to set record highs, as investors are forced by the Fed into stock market speculation due to artificially-suppressed interest rates. But neither our central bank nor corporate measures deployed solely to increase earnings per share while ignoring revenue declines (see IBM's announcement of a stock buyback) can hide the fact that the underlying economic growth is deteriorating.