Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Stock Market New Uptrend Still in Doubt / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the Fed policy of keeping interest rates low has severely curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - New uptrend still in doubt
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Relentless Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Tony_Caldaro
The market opened the week at SPX 1797, dipped to 1792 early Monday, then rallied with only one notable pullback to 1842 by Friday. And all this occurred during market hours, as the only gap opening on the week was a lower one on Thursday. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 2.3%, the NDX/NAZ gained 2.9%, and the DJ World index rose 2.4%. On the economic front negative reports again outpaced positive ones. On the uptick: wholesale/business inventories, export/import prices and the M1-multiplier. On the downtick: retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, the WLEI, plus the budget deficit and weekly jobless claims increased. Next week we get reports on the NY/Philly FED, the CPI/PPI and Housing.
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Dow and Nikkei Stock Index Elliott Wave Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Dan_Stinson
There has been extensive discussion on the relationship between the Nikkei and the DOW, especially after the recent decline for the Nikkei. The three charts below illustrate the relationship and suggest that we could see a DOW top while the Nikkei completes wave (2) up. The overlay chart below illustrates that the Nikkei and the DOW have topped out together and within months of each other since the bear market began for the Nikkei in 1990.
Sunday, February 16, 2014
Is Stock Market Correction Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market (Dow) last week confounded the heights of a another new bear market rhetoric by bouncing to close decidedly back above 16k at 16,154, this despite a week of bad economic data such as a suprise fall in industrial production of 0.3% against expectations for a 0.2% increase (polar vortex bad weather effect). Off course for the perma-bear crowd the weeks rally just represents a minor correction to further short into. Therefore was last weeks rally a last gasp before the great bear market resumes? Or was it the end of what amounts to a relatively minor correction that signals the resumption of the stocks 'stealth' bull market?
Saturday, February 15, 2014
Stock Market Moving Vertically...... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jack_Steiman
So what more can I really add. I can stop this letter right here by simply stating we're in a bull market that still has concerns with regards to sentiment to some degree. Not as bad as one month ago, but still concerns. Ok, letter over. Anything I add from here isn't going to be earth shattering. The market continues to defy logic from a fundamental perspective. Yes, we're still in Disneyland. The worse off the economy is the better it is for the stock market. A not so great economy equals the continuation of lower rates. Lower rates equal a bull market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 15, 2014
Dangerous New World for Old Strategies / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: DeepCaster_LLC
“It isn’t what we don’t know that gives us trouble, it’s what we know that ain’t so.” Will Rogers
Knowing what “ain’t so” is increasingly important for Investors and Traders Going Forward.
Indeed, going into 2014 perhaps the most important Realization to be made is that certain Grand Investment & Trading Strategies and Assumptions which were profitable in the past (e.g., in 2013) may well not be profitable in 2014 and beyond.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 15, 2014
Why the Next Global Financial Crisis Will Be Unlike Any of the Last 200 Years / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2014
By: Submissions
F.F. Wiley writes: Sometime soon, we’ll take a shot at summing up our long-term economic future with just a handful of charts and research results. In the meantime, we’ve created a new chart that may be the most important piece. There are two ideas behind it:
Friday, February 14, 2014
Stocks Final Parabolic Bubble Spike - Great Inflation Scenerio 2014 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Toby_Connor
Today another piece fell into place in my Great Inflation scenario that I'm expecting for 2014.
Before I begin let me recap. My overarching driver for the Great Inflation scenario is that the dollar would have some kind of crisis, or semi-crisis late this year as it drops down into its major three year cycle low. All other stock and commodity movements will be driven by this impending currency crisis.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 14, 2014
Stock Market Margin Debt / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Fred_Sheehan
John Hussman (Hussman Funds) wrote in his February 3, 2014, Weekly Market Comment: "The latest data from the NYSE shows equity margin debt at a new all-time high. Relative to GDP, the current 2.6% level was eclipsed only once - at the March 2000 market peak."
The ratio of margin debt is usually - at least, often - calculated in comparison to the market value of stocks. Later in his Comment, Hussman explains his choice: "We use GDP here because margin debt to GDP has a much higher correlation with actual subsequent market returns than say, margin debt/market capitalization (which destroys information by muting the indicator exactly at points when prices are extremely elevated or depressed)."
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 13, 2014
Stock Market Showing Strength....Spread Lower Still... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jack_Steiman
It is so interesting to watch how rapidly something can happen within the machine known as the stock market. It wasn't very long ago that the bull-bear spread was 46%. Bulls themselves we're at 61%, an incredibly high number. This morning, based on last Friday's market close, bulls were down to 41% with the actual spread down to 24.4% from 46% in basically a month or so. Amazing how fast fear can take over and cause those bulls to change to either agnostic or outright bearish. Fear is the toughest emotion all stock-market players have to deal with.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Is the Stock Market Repeating the 1929 Run Up to the Great Depression Crash? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Washingtons_Blog
Is History Repeating … Or Throwing a Head-Fake?
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Stock Market Trigger Points and Sell Signals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The Pre-Market is flat this morning. The SPX made a perfect reversal pattern and now it needs the decline.
The trigger point (make sure you are short) in SPX is the 50-day moving average at 1809.25. I normally would expect to see a stair-step decline through the rest of the week, but anything may happen.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Stock Market No Worries – Dammit Janet, We Love You! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: PhilStockWorld
Read full article... Read full article...
The future is ours so let's plan it, Janet
If there's one fool for you then I am it, Janet
Now I've one thing to say and that's
Dammit, Janet, I love you…
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Stock Market Calling Down the Thunder / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jesse
Initial Claims and Retail Sales might provide some economic grist for the market's mills on Thursday, but for today it was all bullishness as the thin volumes and lack of organic selling let stocks take off on the news that there will be a clear debt ceiling bill up for a vote tonight, and Janet Yellen's pandering to the corporate classes in her testimony today.
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Bitcoin? You Have Got To Be Joking! My Report From The World Economic Forum / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: David_Hague
Dear Reader, I must apologize for my tardiness in filing my report on last month's World Economic Forum [WEF] in Davos. This annual gathering of the world's best and brightest, society's rich and famous, the powerful and the political, the lobbyists as well as many economists, groupies, and assorted riff raff [Yours truly would fall into the last category.] is, perhaps, the most important harbinger of the prospects for the global economy in 2014. My reasons for being so late in filing my report will soon become apparent. I arrived in Davos, more excited than I had ever been in my career. A coterie of powerful bankers had retained me to make a keynote speech at the conference on the topic of Derivatives. They had agreed to cover my expenses and pay me handsomely for the opportunity to hear my thoughts on the subject.
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
The 1% Being Picked on For Political Reasons / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: Bloomberg
Wilbur Ross, chairman of WL Ross & Co., spoke with Bloomberg Television's Betty Liu and Cristina Alesci today about talks about investment strategy, Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen's congressional testimony and Charter's takeover bid for Time Warner.
"I agree that the 1 percent is being picked on for political reasons," Ross said when asked whether he agreed with Sam Zell's comments about the 1%. "I think the right focus would be how do you help the lower classes elevate themselves. And I think what's disappointing with all the rhetoric, they're not doing anything to fix the educational system. Education is the way that people get out of the ghetto and into if not the 1 percent something close to it."
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 11, 2014
Stock Market Three Peaks and a (Complex) Domed House / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Ed_Carlson
The internet has been abuzz for several weeks about an analogue (discovered by Tom DeMark and popularized by Tom McClellan and others) of the bull market top in 1929 and our current market. I haven’t touched on Lindsay’s best-known model, Three Peaks and a Domed House (3PDh), since my August 19, 2013 commentary. With a fresh look we will discover that today’s Dow Industrials index has even more in common with 1929 than seen in the popular analogue. We can also develop a price forecast for the bottom of the new bear market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 11, 2014
Stock Market Yellen Like Magellan / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: PhilStockWorld
More free money?
That's the hope on which the markets are pinning this little rally as we bounce quickly off S&P support at 1,750 and already back to 1,800 – halfway back to 1,850 – making this little pullback the smallest of blips in the great bull rally of 2009 (now up 177% in 5 years).
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 11, 2014
Goldman Sachs States This Could Very Well Be The China Century / Stock-Markets / China
By: Bloomberg
Goldman Sachs Inc. Chief Executive Officer Lloyd C. Blankfein sat down with Bloomberg Television's John Dawson in Hong Kong earlier today and said emerging markets are in a better state today than in 1998, "There were a lot of things in '98 that don't exist now, better reserves, more flexibility in exchange rate, better policy orientation...There were tailwinds for emerging markets over the last several years. The risk returns to roost, not possibly, but inevitably. It has to. It's part of a cycle."
Tuesday, February 11, 2014
Stock Market Forecast 2014 Thought Experiment Revisited / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short: With 66% of Q4-13 earnings complete, here is the latest update of my ongoing “thought experiment” for forecasting the S&P 500 price based on earnings fundamentals.
The previous two months, I issued a warning due to forecasted earnings being lowered while the average monthly closes went above the forecasted earnings projections. This month, 2014 earnings have been significantly increased from previous forecasts. As a result, the warnings have disappeared. I’ve included a chart below that illustrates the change since April 2013.
Read full article... Read full article...