Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, February 04, 2014

Stock Market Bull - Bear Spread for Sentimental Reasons / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Ed_Carlson

The song (I love you) For Sentimental Reasons was recorded by Nat King Cole in 1946 and I feel as if I’ve been staring at my sentiment indicators for nearly that long trying to tell if equity markets are due for a bounce this week.

Survey-driven metrics such as the AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) and NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers) have definitely fallen but don’t appear to have fallen to levels associated with past lows in the S&P 500. The chart below shows the AAII bull-bear spread. It has turned negative for the first time since last August but it certainly hasn’t reached the level seen in late August which succeeded in turning the equity market back up from its low then.

Tuesday, February 04, 2014

Stock Market Dead Cat Bounce / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Yesterday I had suggested that we may see a pop to (falling) Cycle Bottom resistance at 1757.86. However, the bounce already seems to be failing. There is still a possibility of another probe higher, but a move below 1748.00 (the Broadening Top trendline) may signal the end of the dead cat bounce.

Tuesday, February 04, 2014

Stock Market Last Great Buying Opportunity / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Toby_Connor

It's been my opinion now for the last year that the bull market that started in March of 2009 at 666 on the S&P would come to an end either in late 2013, or early 2014. I'm confident that will be the case, but based on the cyclical pattern of the current decline I believe we still have one last leg up before this bull comes to an end. I think the intermediate decline now in progress is going to create the conditions for a final manic melt up phase over the next 2-3 months to complete this huge parabolic structure that the Fed has constructed with 5 years of QE and 0% interest rates.

Tuesday, February 04, 2014

Stock Trading Alert: Indexes Sold Off Sharply Following ISM Report Release / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Paul_Rejczak

Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is now bearish:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: neutral
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

Tuesday, February 04, 2014

The Federal Reserve Transition Is Creating Bargains / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Money_Morning

Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: People are viewing the end of stimulus as a sunset. "My, what a wonderful day we've had," they say.

What they should be doing is investing for tomorrow's dawn - the turmoil we're seeing now as part of Yellen's arrival is actually par for the course.

Tuesday, February 04, 2014

How to Profit as Eurozone Repeats 2009 Financial Crisis / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2014

By: DailyGainsLetter

Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: When troubles first started in the eurozone years ago, they stemmed from the credit market. The amount of bad loans increased and as a result, banks needed to be bailed out. Greece and Ireland were the first in the eurozone to come under scrutiny, followed by Spain and Portugal; concerns later grew over whether Italy needed a bailout, as well. In 2012 and 2013, we saw a little calm in the eurozone. One of the main factors behind this was the European Central Bank (ECB). It said it will do whatever it takes to save the eurozone. This sent a wave of optimism through the global economy.

Tuesday, February 04, 2014

Stock Market Bears Get It Done...... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Jack_Steiman

Finally!! The bears took the Nasdaq and S&P 500 below their key-support levels of 4084 and 1770, respectively. Losing 4084 allowed the bears to say they finally took out the 50-day exponential moving average with some real force. It's what you need to see. The only ingredient missing is the follow-through. That would mean a large gap down in the very near future. It would be best if it was tomorrow morning, but if the market has a small-inside up day, that would be acceptable. However, very shortly from here, the follow-through gap down will be necessary in order to put the final nail in the coffins of those pesky bulls.

Tuesday, February 04, 2014

Stock Market Biggest Selloff in Over Seven Months / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: Pre-market futures gave little clue as to the direction of today’s action. The S&P 500 opened fractionally lower and hit its 0.13% intraday high seven minutes later. The 10 AM weak ISM Manufacturing Report triggered the most aggressive selling during the day, but the general direction was fairly steadily downward to the index’s -2.41% intraday low about 10 minutes before the closing bell. At the final tally the index trimmed its loss to 2.28%, its biggest one-day drop since June 20th of last year. As a volatility metric, today’s intraday percent range was the largest since November of 2012.

Tuesday, February 04, 2014

Stock Markets Say Tapering Is Tightening / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Michael_Pento

Wall Street Cheerleaders like to claim that the tapering of Fed asset purchases is not equivalent to the tightening of monetary policy. But the markets are clearly telling investors something different. Year to date the S&P 500 is down about 5%--not horrific for one month but certainly not following last year's performance. But the economic data such as; durable goods, initial jobless claims, personal income, and housing sales have all shown a distinctive weakening trend.

Monday, February 03, 2014

Stock Market Necklines Broken / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The Head & Shoulders neckline has been broken. We should see the SPX continue its course to or below the H&S minimum target of 1694.92. This will not only give the initial break of the Orthodox Broadening Top but also break the massive Ending Diagonal. These declines are taking the form of a Leading Diagonal, which is comprised of 3-wave moves instead of 5 wave moves. This may still considered impulsive in the fact that ultimately they will form a 5-wave decline. In the meantime, it has analysts flummoxed, since they see the a-b-c decline and consider it corrective instead of impulsive.

Monday, February 03, 2014

Stock Market More Weakness Ahead! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Andre_Gratian

SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the Fed policy of keeping interest rates low has severely curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.

Intermediate trend - The anticipated decline into late February has started.

Monday, February 03, 2014

Stocks, Gold & Bonds February Risk-On or Risk-Off Trades? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recent price action in the stock market has many traders on edge. With the market closing below our key support trend line last week, the market has now technically starting a down trend.

While trend lines are a great tool for identifying a weakening trend and reversals in the market, I do not put a lot of my analysis weighting on them.

Monday, February 03, 2014

Stocks Bull Market Over? Are the Bears About to Break...even? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Bearish rhetoric is once more reaching extremes FOLLOWING the tumbling of stocks to new recent lows, a decline that many market commentators have once more latched onto as a consequence of Fed Tapering of QE or more accurately money printing, this despite the fact that the stocks soared in response to the last December Taper decision which was a surprise for the markets whilst the January Taper move was expected.

Sunday, February 02, 2014

Stock Market Dow Divergence Continues. Market Risk Is Rising / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Christopher_Quigley

Despite the recent market pullback Dow Theory divergence continues as can be readily observed from the Dow indices comparison chart below. Divergence is an indication of market instability and investor uncertainty.

Clearly the Dow Industrials are in a short term bear trend. This is signified by lower highs and lower lows on the index. Will this trend become more pronounced and become a medium bear trend? It is difficult to say at this juncture. The key technical position on the Dow Transports is 6940. If this price point is violated then in all probability the market is heading significantly lower.

Sunday, February 02, 2014

Central Bank Throwdown, What’s Driving Emerging Markets? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014

By: John_Mauldin

Those of us who have attained a certain age can remember being bombarded by commercials in which we were asked "Is it live or is it Memorex?" The thrust of the ad was that it didn't make any difference, that the tape recording was just as good as being there to watch that TV show live. Video recording technology was in its infancy, and the ability to play a movie whenever you wanted was really cool. Imagine being able to set a video recorder to record a TV show while you were away! … As long as you had somebody in the house young enough to be able to program the recorder to do it, it was great technology.

Sunday, February 02, 2014

Stock Market Elliott Wave Primary III or Just a Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Tony_Caldaro

Another volatile week. While the range for the week was not that wide, (SPX 1770-1799), the wild swings every day, and sometimes intraday, were. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.75%, the NDX/NAZ were -0.60%, and the DJ World index was down 1.20%. Economic reports for the week were about two to one on the positive side. On the uptick: Q4 GDP, Case-Shiller, consumer confidence/sentiment, personal spending, PCE prices, Chicago PMI, monetary base, and the WLEI. On the downtick: new/pending home sales, durable goods orders, the M1-multiplier, and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week will be highlighted by Payrolls, ISM and Auto sales.

Saturday, February 01, 2014

Why The 40-Year Kress Cycle is Bad News for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Clif_Droke

Lost among all the bullish predictions for the 2014 market outlook is a salient fact that few Wall Street analysts are aware of. What they fail to realize is that the powerful 40-year cycle bottoms later this year.

Just how powerful is the 40-year cycle? Well consider that in the previous 120 years the 40-year cycle bottom has never failed to produce a major market decline. From the decline in late 1894 to the corrective pullback of 1934 to the devastating decline of 1974, the 40-year cycle has always made its presence felt in the stock market.

Friday, January 31, 2014

European Stocks and Financial Markets Forecasts / Stock-Markets / European Stock Markets

By: EWI

Today, European Financial Forecast Editor Brian Whitmer shares a six-page report that sheds light on the status of the euro and European stocks. You also get Brian's special report, Europe's Monetary Magicians are Out of Tricks. His analysis reveals the "value play" myth in tech and gaming companies, the status of the euro crisis and more.

Friday, January 31, 2014

Stock Market SPX May Gap Beneath its Head & Shoulders Neckline / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The overnight markets took back all the gains from yesterday and then some. There are numerous items influencing investor sentiment, which are listed below.

· The Nikkei started off on a ramp, but gave up over 400 points, closing at a loss.

· The deflation monster is raging in Europe.

Friday, January 31, 2014

Market Risk Times Risk Equals Fear - Debt Rattle 2014 / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2014

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Financial risk is springing up from so many sides and nooks and angles and crannies by now that the overall picture has become chaotic. And needless to say, anyone invested in anything detests chaos; it instills fear. If you can no longer oversee from which angle which risk might pop up, selling looks like a good move, and that’s what we see happening. The Nikkei closed down again earlier today, and European markets are doing them one better (aka worse). There is a long list of European countries, both in the EU and outside of it, that experience de facto deflation, offset in many cases only by higher taxation.