Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, April 24, 2018
Stock Market Study Shows Why You Shouldn’t “Sell in May and Go Away” / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
You’ve probably heard of the saying “sell in May and go away”. This piece of conventional trading “wisdom” states that the stock market is seasonally weak from May to September while it’s seasonally stronger from October to April. Hence you should not own stocks from May to September. From a seasonality perspective, that is only partially true.
Tuesday, April 24, 2018
Chaos Capitalists Short Countries - How Chanos Got China Wrong / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Dan_Steinbock
Since the 1980s, a new generation of chaos capitalists have been undermining the progress of emerging economies. Under the pretext of “efficient markets,” they seek to exploit real or perceived weaknesses.
Recently, hedge funder Jim Chanos appeared on CNNMoney’s Markets Now program that was promoted heavily on the CNN: “Chanos got China right.”
Tuesday, April 24, 2018
Transportation Stocks Are Not Moving and What It Means / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Pay attention to the price movement of the transportation sector for a clearer picture of the future rally
If you have been reading and following are posts this year then you’ve seen the power of our Advanced Dynamic Learning price modeling system and how well we are able to find key market moves. On Monday, the markets stalled, providing further evidence of the future breakout move. The Banking Index was up 0.43%. The $INDU was off by 0.06% while the ES, NQ and YM were mixed. The Transportation Index was up 0.40% while the US Dollar is about to break above the $91.00 level on an attempt to move higher. These moves are telling us that the US economy is about to break higher in an attempt to retest recent highs – just as our ADL predictive price modeling system has been warning.
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Tuesday, April 24, 2018
Stock Market "Oops, They Did It Again" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: EWI
See "a classic capitulation to a rising trend"
History often repeats. So, one way to make an educated guess about the future is to look at the past.
With that in mind, let me share with you a valuable observation from our market analysts: Overseas investors tend to jump into U.S. stocks near tops, and sell heavily near bottoms. In other words, their market actions usually are a contrarian indicator.
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Monday, April 23, 2018
Stocks and Bonds, This is Not a Market / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
By: Raul_I_Meijer
“[Price discovery] is the process of determining the price of an asset in the marketplace through the interactions of buyers and sellers”, says Wikipedia. Perhaps not a perfect definition, but it’ll do. They add: “The futures and options market serve all important functions of price discovery.”
What follows from this is that markets need price discovery as much as price discovery needs markets. They are two sides of the same coin. Markets are the mechanism that makes price discovery possible, and vice versa. Functioning markets, that is.
Given the interdependence between the two, we must conclude that when there is no price discovery, there are no functioning markets. And a market that doesn’t function is not a market at all. Also, if you don’t have functioning markets, you have no investors. Who’s going to spend money purchasing things they can’t determine the value of? (I know: oh, wait..)
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Monday, April 23, 2018
Stock Market Correction Turns Consolidation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – The intermediate correction from 2873 should now continue until May.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, April 22, 2018
Stock Market Predictive Modeling Is Calling For A Continued Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We are constantly amazed that our Advanced Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system has been incredibly accurate over the past 7+ months. Our researchers, at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, called the early 2018 rally weeks in advance. We called the resistance levels and top in late January. We called a February 21~27 market top formation, called the market bottom on March 28, and last week called the market top to the hour and locked in 17.7% trading a simple 3x index ETF. Today, we are going to further illustrate the power and capabilities of the ADL price modeling system and what we are expecting over the next 7~10+ trading days.
Saturday, April 21, 2018
How Long Does it take for a 10%+ Stock Market Correction to Make New Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P has fallen 11.8% already during this “small correction”. Assuming that the bottom is in already (February 9, 2018 = the bottom), the S&P has rallied for 48 days already. Is this normal? How long does it usually take for a 10%+ “small correction” to reclaim its old highs?
Here are the bottom dates for 10%+ “small corrections”
- June 4, 2012
- August 16, 2007
- February 28, 2000
- October 18, 1999
- October 28, 1997
- April 14, 1997
- July 16, 1996
- January 30, 1990
- September 29, 1986
- February 13, 1968
- June 29, 1965
- October 11, 1955
Here’s how many days it took for the S&P 500 to make a new high.
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Friday, April 20, 2018
Stock Market May "Let Go" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
SPX futures slid down to the daytime low of 2682.75 in late night trading, then ramped up to trendline resistance at 2698.25 before coming back to the flat line as I write. It appears to be range-bound for the moment, until Index Options (institutional-style) expire at 9:20-9:30 am. Retail options expire at the end of the day.
SPX had Waves 1 and 2 yesterday. Wave 3 may be significantly larger than the 35.59 point decline we saw yesterday. There is a good probability that the retail options investors may be “thrown under the bus.”
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Friday, April 20, 2018
Overwhelming Evidence Against Near Stock Market Grand Supercycle Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Science_Investing
Grand Supercycle in US Equities
The US stock market shows price data all the way back to 1790. It can be fitted into long term cycles, which result into Elliott waves. The popular opinion is that we are approaching the top of a Grand Supercycle trend. It implies that a long and deep correction is ahead of us. Our conclusion is very different to that and we base it on Elliott’s rules and guidelines.
Thursday, April 19, 2018
Is War "Hell" for the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: EWI
Take a look at stock market behavior in times of war… and peace
Are wars bullish or bearish for stocks?
With the recent news of airstrikes on Syria and a threat of a global war, this question is extremely relevant. But does war really cause stock markets to rise and fall?
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Thursday, April 19, 2018
Breadth Study Suggests that Stock Market Bottom is Already In / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Last week we demonstrated a momentum+breadth study which supported the medium term bullish case for the stock market.
Now let’s look at the short term case for the stock market. Is the stock market’s EXACT bottom already in?
The NYSE cumulative Advance-Decline Line (one of the best breadth indicators) just made a new all-time high yesterday while the S&P 500 has yet to make a new high.
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Thursday, April 19, 2018
Allegory Regarding Investment Decisions Made On Basis Of Government’s Income Statement, Balance Sheet / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Raymond_Matison
Webster’s dictionary defines allegory as a story in which people, things or happenings have a symbolic or hidden meaning that can be used effectively in teaching or explaining difficult ideas. Accordingly, an allegoric story is used here to explain the important difference between a government income statement and balance sheet, and its application for investment decisions in financial markets.
Simplistically, the government’s income statement records all its activity over a specific period of time during which it brings in revenues, disburses some benefits and pays some expenses. Individual and corporate income taxes provide the lion’s share of those revenues. When the cost of government and its expenditures are deducted from its revenues the balance is either a surplus or savings, or as has been our experience over the last few decades – there is a budget deficit. Such deficits have to be financed, and it results in persistent issue and growth of our national debt. In our allegory the budget deficits will be represented by a not large hole in the hull of a ship, whereas the governmental debt is represented by the accumulated flow of water in the hull of a ship.
Wednesday, April 18, 2018
The Stock Market “Turn of the Month Effect” Exists in 11 of 11 Countries / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Dimitri_Speck
Dear Investor,
I first discussed the “turn-of-the-month effect” in Seasonal Insights issue 6 of March 21, 2018. The term describes the fact that price gains in the stock market tend to cluster around the turn of the month.
By contrast, the rest of the time around the middle of the month is typically less profitable for investors.
With respect to the US stock market, I also showed how the “turn-of-the-month effect”” evolved over time, when it was particularly pronounced and when it tended to wane.
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Wednesday, April 18, 2018
Stock Market Short Squeeze/Melt-Up We Predicted Started Today / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US majors are all nearly 1% higher for the day with the NASDAQ up over 2.25%. Our analysis of the markets was DEAD ON. We called the 2678 level on the ES as a key resistance level to watch before any breakout to the upside would potentially happen. We also called this market bottom nearly three weeks ago on March 28, 2018 and we are up over 15% on a position to take advantage of it with our followers. We have been nailing these market reversals with incredible accuracy all year and we are just getting started with our Advanced Dynamic Learning systems we have developed.
Wednesday, April 18, 2018
Investor Alert: How to See Through the Fog of War / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: MoneyMetals
The U.S. fired 105 Tomahawk missiles into Syria on Friday night.
In other times, the salvo would have put Americans on edge over the prospect of war with nuclear-armed Russia. Our former Cold War adversary is actively defending the Syrian regime and warning the U.S. to mind its own affairs.
But, these days not much can command the attention of the complacent public.
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Tuesday, April 17, 2018
A Stock Market Rally on Low Volume is NOT Bearish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Conventional trading “wisdom” states that a rally that occurs on falling volume is bearish. Conventional “wisdom” states that sustainable rallies should occur on rising volume.
This simply isn’t true. As we said in Don’t use volume for trading,
Rising/falling volume isn’t a bullish sign or a bearish sign. It just is. Volume is mostly irrelevant. It doesn’t give you much of an edge in the markets.
The S&P 500 is rallying on falling volume right now.
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Tuesday, April 17, 2018
Watch These S&P Numbers For Clues… / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Harry_Dent
On Tuesday, Rodney talked to his Triple Play Strategy subscribers about the extreme volatility we’re experiencing in the markets. He asked the question: “So, how are you feeling?” as he observed that investors are looking increasingly tired from the extreme drops and bounces we’ve endured the least few weeks. He concluded that the situation isn’t looking good and he’s admittedly turned bearish.I may be with Rodney on that.
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Monday, April 16, 2018
Bombs, Missiles and War – What to Expect Next from the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Friday night opened up a whole new perspective on the global markets with the coordinated targeted attack on Syria. It’s not that we didn’t know this was a possibility, yet the event itself changes how the markets may react on Monday and throughout this next week. Our researchers at Technical Traders Ltd. have been diligently trying to identify the price rotations that will occur early next week and we believe this research post will help to prepare all investors for what may be a wild ride.
First off, with this event playing out late Friday night and early into Saturday, there are a number of things we have to consider. The US Dollar may be under some pressure this week as a result of this event. Gold and Silver may rally as fear and panic enter the markets. Oil will likely rise on fear of a disruption or conflict related supply issue. The US stock market will likely rotate with a bit with continued large price volatility early Monday morning as traders attempt to reposition after this event. Given all of this, the long-term perspective has to be maintained in order to understand the true market dynamics.
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Monday, April 16, 2018
Stock Market Futures Bounce, But Stopped at Trendline / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures bounced back but appear to be stopped at the 2-year trendline at 2675..00-2680.00 without making a new high. The Cycles Model suggests there may be some residual strength throughout the week during which options expiration may take precedence. OpEx has the ability to increase turmoil in the markets. As a result, this period may be protected by the powers that be.
Once Wave (3) begins, it should be unstoppable. However, there may be an effort to delay its onset.
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