Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, December 23, 2007
China Infrastructure Growth: It's Not About Beijing 2008 Olympics / Stock-Markets / China Economy
By: Chip_Hanlon
Stop it! Please just stop.
I saw it yet again yesterday: another commentator talked about how China 's economy should keep chugging along through the 2008 Olympics in Beijing , particularly its appetite for commodities due to its infrastructure needs ahead of that event. Sometimes I hear it said that the trend might last through 2010 and the World Expo in Shanghai for similar reasons.
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Sunday, December 23, 2007
Stock Markets Entering Strongest Seasonal Period - 2008 Presidential Year Cycle Strength / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: We are in the seasonally strongest period of the year. Since 1928, during the last 5 trading days of the year, the S&P 500 (SPX) has been up 82% of the time with an average gain of 1.11%. During the 3 rd year of the Presidential Cycle it has been up 95% of the time. 1987 was the only down year.
Short Term - Seasonal considerations overwhelm everything else in the short term.
Intermediate Term - Indicators of all styles and durations get distorted this time of the year when the market drifts upward on low volume with the secondaries leading.
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Saturday, December 22, 2007
Stock Markets Extremely Undervalued Under the IBES Valuation Model / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: Clif_Droke
Two tectonic plates and “The Big One” - We've all heard it before: The next major depression is expected to begin sometime around 2011-2012 and continue its ravaging impact until about 2014-2016. This belief has become so accepted among cycle theorists as to be almost a type of gospel.
And based on a purely deterministic interpretation of the K-wave and long-term Kress cycles, this outcome would make sense. Some persuasive arguments of this theory have even been advanced from a demographic perspective (see “The Next Great Bubble Boom” by Harry Dent and “Baby Boomers, Generation X and Social Cycles” by Edward Cheung, for example).
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Saturday, December 22, 2007
Silent Stock Market Crash in the Banking Sector / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
There weren't many voices last weekend calling for a bullish reversal and rally in stocks. Come to think of it, were there any besides TTC at all? It seems that once again, just as in about the last dozen or so major market turns, this newsletter was alone in championing a bullish count while the entire online analysis community grew increasingly bearish and insisted the top was in. Now as a strong finish to the week puts us back within about 70 points of the all-time highs, bears are again forced to rethink their positions in the face of a market that threatens to grind higher through year-end and could still potentially explode upwards.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 22, 2007
Pop Go the Liquidity Bubbles / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
- Pop Go the Bubbles
- Lights for Myanmar, Water for Darfur
- A Half A Trillion Here and There
- Consumer Spending is Up? Wait, Is It Down?
- The Presidential Race
- Family, Christmas, and Home
Consumer spending was much stronger than thought in November, yet Circuit City Stores Inc., Best Buy Co. and other retailers that warned of a slump in purchases. A private report today showed consumer confidence slid to the lowest level in more than two years in December. The stock market chooses to see all things bullish, and so it powers ever upward. This week we take a brief look at the consumer, recent "shock and awe" central bank actions, money supply and more, trying to see how it all fits together.
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Saturday, December 22, 2007
Real Estate Pro's Head for the Exit as Bush Asks Banks to "Come Clean" on Losses / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The U.S. housing recession has worsened since the credit collapse in August. Because of it, economic growth will slow to an approximate 1% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, according to estimates given by economists to Bloomberg News . President George W. Bush said he's concerned about the housing slump dragging on the economy and said financial institutions must be open about how much they may lose because of the collapse of the subprime mortgage market. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 21, 2007
Greed, Fear and Market Manipulation as Wall Street Bonuses Rise / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
By: Andy_Sutton
Lessons of 2007 - Yesterday I had the opportunity to take a rather remarkable group of young people to a regional business competition. This was an actual competition, not one of these contrived events where everyone wins and hand wringing is out in full force. All in all, the group did rather well with one student winning her category, and two others placing 4th in a team event. For a group of 8 I was rather pleased. I also came to see the full scope of human emotion that ensued in the hours after the competition. The rest of us should be so lucky to have the life experience that transpired yesterday although I didn't realize it myself until those early hours of the morning when the world is silent and still and permits us time for reflection.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 21, 2007
Sovereign Wealth Fund Capital Injections Will Fail to Increase Commercial Bank Lending / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
When economists discuss investment in real capital expenditures they make a distinction between gross and net. If investment expenditures just match the depreciation of capital equipment, then gross investment rises, but net investment is unchanged. Increases in net investment, not gross investment, are what matters with regard to the future productivity of the economy.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 20, 2007
US Bailout of Bond Insurers to Prevent Collapse of US Banking System / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The hidden bond insurers used by Wall Street firms are in the news, especially ACA Capital and MBIA. Implications are huge, with monumental ripple effects. Financial press reporting of the bond insurers is woefully inadequate. Moodys and Fitch are giving analysis review to nine ‘AAA' rated bond insurers to see if they have sufficient capital to conduct their insurance operations. The list includes ACA Capital, MBIA, Ambac Financial, and Financial Guaranty Insurance. ACA Capital has only $1.1 billion in cash for payout of bond failure claims, but has lost $1 billion in the most recent quarter. More losses are assured. This insurer is very important, since it is widely abused by Wall Street banks to hide cratered bond derivative losses. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Fed Liquidity Intervention in Recognition of Credit Crisis / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: David_Vaughn
Well, Christmas is just around the corner. Bet your kids are excited if you still have little ones around the house. On top of Christmas the world is coming unhinged but really nothing more exciting. Let me get something clear right up front concerning last weeks article. Number one I was not “Bush Bashing.” Heck, I voted for the man. My point in the article was the inevitability of a coming crisis in Iran . Enough said on that. Let's get back to Christmas.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Financial Markets about to be Hit Hard by Wall Street Bond Insurers Downgrades / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: So much is happening so fast — and so few pundits grasp its true significance — I decided to send you this special afternoon edition to give you a heads up.
Here are the latest developments:
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Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Rule Change on Foreign Investments to Send Chinese Stocks To the Moon / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: Money_and_Markets
If you're feeling a little nervous about the markets ... you're far from alone.
U.S. stocks have been struggling ever since the Federal Reserve Bank disappointed investors with a measly 25-basis-point interest rate cut last week.
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Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Collapse of the Modern Day Banking System - Staring into the Abyss / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Mike_Whitney
“In past financial crises... the Fed has been able to wave its magic wand and make market turmoil disappear. But this time the magic isn't working. Why not? Because the problem with the markets isn't just a lack of liquidity — there's also a fundamental problem of solvency.” Paul Krugman
Stocks fell sharply last week on news of accelerating inflation which will limit the Federal Reserves ability to continue cutting interest rates. On Tuesday the Dow Jones Industrials tumbled 294 points following the Fed's announcement of a quarter point cut to the Fed Funds rate. On Friday, the Dow dipped another 178 points when government figures showed consumer prices had risen 0.8% last month after a 0.3% gain in October. The stock market is now lurching downward into a “primary bear market”. There has been a steady deterioration in retail sales, commercial real estate, and the transports.
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Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Stock Market Down Movements and the Volatility Index's Concentric Circle Pattern / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Marty_Chenard
It has been months since I posted our VIX Concentric Circle chart . It has always been one of the free subscriber favorites in the past.
From 2003 to mid 2006, the Volatility Index followed a perfect concentric circle pattern where the bottom of the circle was the Support for the VIX as seen below.
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Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Value Stocks Crash Reaches 50 Per Cent! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Steve_Selengut
Perhaps this (totally ignored by the media) snippet will pique your attention: on December 18, 2007, nearly 50% of all Investment Grade Value Stocks were down an average of over 30% from their 52-week highs... the Dow and the S&P 500 had fallen just 7%!Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Credit Crunch Far From Being Over, Further Economic Uncertainty? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Regent_Markets
To say that Wall Street has been paying close attention to the actions of the US Federal Reserve recently is an understatement to say the least. Last week was no different as the Dow Jones & Co reacted frantically to Fed attempts to stoke greater movement in moribund credit markets.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Small Caps Should Continue to Trail Blue ChipsŠwhile Nasdaq Q's Have Short-term Upside / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Well, time to dust off the daily QQQQ chart again, which shows the major
channel the Q's carved out from the July 2006 low to the October 2007 high.
My preferred scenario argues (still) that the November 12 low at 48.75 ended
the first portion of an intermediate-term correction that eventually will
resume its decline towards a test of the lower channel support line, now in
the vicinity of 47.30.
"Eventually?" Yes, because from the November 12 low, both my pattern and
oscillator work indicate that the initial rally to the December 11 peak at
52.84 represented the first phase of an "intervening recovery rally" that
has unfinished business on the upside into the 53.00 area prior to the
plunge towards the lower channel support line.
Monday, December 17, 2007
EWI view on the FTSE, Interest Rates and the Super SIV Subprime Rescue Fund / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: EWI
Hey, Buddy, Can You Spare a Dime for the SIV Superfund? 12/7/2007 2:33:58 PM " Strange to see that Wall Street, which had no trouble raising money before the subprime mess and the ensuing credit crunch, is now scraping for 'spare change.' Here's why the superfund is a good idea for a few people but a bad idea in general. Read MoreRead full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 17, 2007
Hyper-inflationary Paper Promises Poised On Precarious Perch / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Captain_Hook
Whether it be due to a global currency crisis , it's effects , or because worse is yet to come , no matter, the ever-growing hyperinflationary mountain of paper promises is precariously perched on the edge of a precipice ready to fall, and in doing so; such an event would accelerate the end of the US Dollar ($) empire, along with its dominance in world affairs and trade . And no amount of fairy tales or interventions will be able to halt the $'s slide from prominence – nothing. This is becoming more evident in the fact the credit crisis is now spreading to Asia , where the stock markets have become destabilized. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 17, 2007
Confusion in The Markets - What Could it Mean? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Brian_Bloom
From close up, there is no making sense of what is happening in the markets today. Certainly, in all the years of my involvement in and around the markets I have never seen such confusion at the coalface.
One reason, I suspect, is that there are broadly based vested interests at work which are battling for all they are worth to ensure that the infrastructure doesn't unravel.
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